The Neoclassical Growth Model and the Labor Share Decline

The labor share may be declining in the data, but it is often assumed constant in neoclassical growth models (NGM). We assess the quantitative importance of this discrepancy by comparing alternative calibration approaches featuring constant and declining labor shares. We find little difference in model performance. Our results derive from strong general equilibrium effects: while a declining labor share mechanically lowers wage growth, the investment response pushes wages back up. Hence, different models deliver nearly identical paths of macro aggregates. Numerous robustness checks (including a CES production function, different time periods, and calculations of the labor share) reinforce the similarity of performance across model specifications. We conclude that the NGM with a constant labor share is still an appropriate choice to study many standard macro aggregates.

How Do Firms Change Investments Based on MD&A Disclosures of Peer Firms?

We show that a firm's one-year-ahead capital investments and inventory increase (decrease) when peer firms' MD&A narratives become more optimistic (pessimistic). This finding is driven by firms that access peer firms' 10-K filings within seven days of filing, and remains after controlling for other determinants of a firm's investments as well as economic connections between the firm and peer firms. Moreover, a firm's investment response varies based on content in peer firms' MD&A narratives. For instance, a firm makes more (less) capital investments when peer firms become more optimistic in their narratives that discuss the industry and investments (competition). Our findings provide broad insights on the information content and proprietary costs of MD&A disclosures.

Foreign Portfolio Investment Response to Monetary Policy Decisions in Nigeria: A Toda-Yamamoto Approach

This paper examined the response of foreign portfolio investment to Monetary Policy decisions of the Central Bank of Nigeria using monthly data spanning January 2007 to December 2018. The study adopted the Toda-Yamamoto Causality model and Generalized Impulse Response Function for analysis. The results showed that changes in monetary policy stance could only impact the behavior of foreign portfolio investment with 6-month lag and with marginal impact. This implies that monetary policy could still be effective even if the CBN decides to lose policy stance without losing significant capital flight. The conclusion from the findings is that monetary policy is just a signaling instrument for portfolio investors in Nigeria because it influences foreign portfolio investment through the Treasury bill rate rather than through MPR and CRR. The marginal response of investment due to changes in policy rate from the GIRF validate the TY results by indicating that monetary policy rate changes on its own may not be what investors are concern about, rather the expectation of the rates future path. The cash reserve ratio as a monetary policy tool does not seem to exert any impact on foreign portfolio investment.

Investment, the Capital Stock, and Economic Policy

Of the constituents of NTV only corporation tax and the hurdle rate seem credible targets for policy changes designed to boost labour productivity. The hurdle rate is stable over the long term so corporate investment usually responds to changes in RoE. It did so until 2000 but not since. The relationship between investment and corporation tax shows similar stability until the breakdown in 2000. These relationships provide the link between the level of investment and the growth of the capital stock. The sharp change in the investment response to favourable changes in tax and RoEs must have occurred because of an adverse change in one or more of the other constituents of NTV. But all constituents have changed in a favourable direction except the hurdle rate, whose change must have caused the current low level of tangible investment.

Analisis Pengaruh Tingkat Inflasi, Transaksi Pasar Uang Antar Bank Syariah (PUAS) dan Investasi Syariah terhadap Imbal Hasil Sertifikat Bank Indonesia Syariah (SBIS)

This research aims to analyze the effect level of inflation, transaction of interbank sharia money market and sharia investment to yield sharia certificate of Bank Indonesia period January 2012 - December 2017. The data used are time series data period January 2012 - December 2017 published by BI and OJK. The method of analysis used in this research is Vector Auto Regression (VAR) models. Results of Granger Causality analysis show that, there is a pattern of one-way causality between inflation with transaction of interbank sharia money market (PUAS) and yield sharia certificate of Bank Indonesia (SBIS), there is a pattern of one-way causality between sharia investment with transaction of interbank sharia money market (PUAS) and there is not a pattern of one-way causality between yield sharia certificate of Bank Indonesia (SBIS) with transaction of interbank sharia money market (PUAS) and sharia investmentin Indonesia period 2012-2017. Results of Impulse Response Function analysis show that, inflation response most quickly reach stability when shock occur in the variable transaction of interbank sharia money market (PUAS). Transaction of interbank sharia money market (PUAS) response most quickly reach stability when shock occur in the variable sharia investment. Sharia investment response most quickly reach stability when shock occur in the variable sharia investment. Yield sharia certificate of Bank Indonesia (SBIS) response most quickly reach stability when shock occur in the variable transaction of interbank sharia money market (PUAS). Result of Variance Decomposition analysis show that, the variable that gives the most contribution to inflation, transaction of interbank sharia money market (PUAS), sharia investment and yield sharia certificate of Bank Indonesia (SBIS) is inflation, transaction of interbank sharia money market (PUAS), sharia investment and yield sharia certificate of Bank Indonesia (SBIS) it self.

Consumption Taxes and Corporate Investment

Consumers nominally pay the consumption tax, but theoretical and empirical evidence is mixed on whether corporations partly shoulder this burden, thereby affecting corporate investment. Using a quasi-natural experiment, we show that consumption taxes decrease investment. Firms facing more elastic demand decrease investment more strongly, because they bear more of the consumption tax. We corroborate the validity of our findings using 86 consumption tax changes in a cross-country panel. We document two mechanisms underlying the investment response: reduced firms’ profitability and lower aggregate consumption. Importantly, the magnitude of the investment response to consumption taxes is similar to that of corporate taxes. Received September 25, 2017; editorial decision August 26, 2018 by Editor Wei Jiang. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Tax Loss Carrybacks: Investment Stimulus versus Misallocation

ABSTRACT Tax regimes treat losses and profits asymmetrically when profits are immediately taxed, but losses are not immediately refunded. We find that treating losses less asymmetrically by granting refunds less restrictively increases loss firms' investment: A third of the refund is invested and the rest is held as cash or returned to shareholders. However, the investment response is driven primarily by firms prone to engage in risky overinvestment. Consistent with the risk of misallocation, we find a delayed exit of low-productivity loss firms receiving less restrictive refunds, indicating potential distortion of the competitive selection of firms. This distortion also negatively affects aggregate output and productivity. Our results suggest that stimulating loss firms' investment with refunds unconditional on their future prospects comes at the risk of misallocation. JEL Classifications: G31; H21; H25.

Waves in Ship Prices and Investment *

We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low future returns. We propose and estimate a behavioral model of industry cycles that can account for the evidence. In our model, firms overextrapolate exogenous demand shocks and partially neglect the endogenous investment response of their competitors. As a result, firms overpay for ships and overinvest in booms and are disappointed by the subsequent low returns. Formal estimation of the model suggests that modest expectational errors can result in dramatic excess volatility in prices and investment.

Effects of Chinese Economic Stimulus Package on Economic Growth in the Post-Crisis China

This paper aims to simulate the contribution of investment expansion policy after financial crisis as well as describe the possible economic perspectives in the post-crisis period by using scenario simulation method based on Chinese dynamic economic CGE (computable general equilibrium) model. Energy consumption and CO2 emission are also considered in order to access the possible negative effects owing to investment enlargement. The results show that expanding investment response to financial crisis increases economic growth rate by 6.74% from 2.36% in 2009. It can relieve the fluctuation in economy and bring the economic growth close to baseline level in the near post-crisis period. However, higher energy consumption intensity and CO2 emission intensity compared to baseline owing to the increasing investment make energy saving and CO2 mitigation more difficult.