scholarly journals Waves in Ship Prices and Investment *

2014 ◽  
Vol 130 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Greenwood ◽  
Samuel G. Hanson
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Model ◽  
High Current ◽  
Shipping Industry ◽  
Bulk Shipping ◽  
Excess Volatility ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
Investment Boom ◽  
Industry Investment ◽  
Investment Response ◽  
Boom And Bust Cycles

Abstract We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low future returns. We propose and estimate a behavioral model of industry cycles that can account for the evidence. In our model, firms overextrapolate exogenous demand shocks and partially neglect the endogenous investment response of their competitors. As a result, firms overpay for ships and overinvest in booms and are disappointed by the subsequent low returns. Formal estimation of the model suggests that modest expectational errors can result in dramatic excess volatility in prices and investment.

scholarly journals Rationale Erklärungen für Immobilienpreis-Bubbles: Die Auswirkungen von Risikoschocks auf die Wohnimmobilienpreisvolatilität und die Volatilität von Investitionen in Wohnimmobilien

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viktor Dorofeenko ◽  
Gabriel S. Lee ◽  
Kevin D. Salyer
Keyword(s):  
Housing Price ◽  
Information Frictions ◽  
Residential Investment ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
The Media ◽  
Business Cycle Model ◽  
Investment Boom ◽  
Boom And Bust Cycles ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThe dramatic world-wide housing boom and bust cycles during the last few years are often described in the media as “bubbles” and were largely caused by irrational exuberance due to the liberalization of housing finance (i.e. credit market irregularities in the U.S.: the subprime markets and mortgage structured products). Following Dorofeenko et al (2011), this paper, however, argues that many of the business and housing stylized facts, especially, the U.S. housing price and residential investment volatilites can be explained by analyzing the role of uncertainty (risk) in the framework of a Real Business Cycle model that includes a housing sector with financial information frictions. Consequently, we show for the U.S., these large housing price and residential investment boom and bust cycles are at least were driven largely by economic fundamentals with irrationality (or psychology) at most in the background.

A translog cost model of the bulk shipping industry

1987 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 311-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. R. Tolofari ◽  
K. J. Button ◽  
D. E. Pitfield
Keyword(s):  
Cost Model ◽  
Shipping Industry ◽  
Bulk Shipping ◽  
Translog Cost

China's Macroeconomy in Transition

1995 ◽  
Vol 144 ◽  
pp. 1083-1104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry Naughton
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Soft Landing ◽  
Successive Cycle ◽  
Reform Era ◽  
Inflationary Phase ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
Boom And Bust Cycles ◽  
Austerity Policy

Is macroeconomic stability the Achilles heel of the Chinese economy? Recurrent bouts of inflationary disorder lead some observers to worry that the Chinese government is unable to control the economy. Macroeconomic difficulties show up in a pattern of repeated boom and bust cycles, in which each boom is accompanied by an acute inflationary phase and significant disruption. Moreover, since the reform era began, the peak annual inflation rate of each successive cycle has been higher than that of the preceding one. The most recent attempts to cool off the economy have only led to additional questions. An austerity policy was decreed at the end of June 1993, yet inflation actually accelerated in 1994, and it was not until mid-1995 that it dropped to the levels of mid-1993. The Chinese government was engaged in a quest for an economic “soft landing” for two years without a net reduction in the inflation rate!

Linking Education to Creating a Knowledge Society

2014 ◽  
pp. 52-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan S. Weber
Keyword(s):  
Knowledge Economy ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Knowledge Society ◽  
Capacity Development ◽  
Economic Transformation ◽  
High Price ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
K 12 ◽  
Boom And Bust Cycles

Due to the continued high price of oil and gas, the oil-rich State of Qatar has used its large budget surpluses in the last decade to finance human capacity development, including research, higher education, and the reshaping of its K-12 educational system. This chapter argues that the recent substantial educational reforms in the State of Qatar are closely intertwined with planned future economic transformation (diversification). Although Qatar possesses the world's third largest reserves of natural gas, this resource is ultimately finite and over-reliance on one major economic driver (hydrocarbons) for the bulk of GDP creates boom and bust cycles that have shaped Gulf politics and social development since the 1970s. This chapter examines Qatar's educational efforts to build a knowledge economy to transition away from a resource-rich export-based hydrocarbon economy towards economic activities linked to patents, research, trademarked technologies, skills, and knowledge products.

Linking Education to Creating a Knowledge Society

2015 ◽  
pp. 818-839 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan S. Weber
Keyword(s):  
Knowledge Economy ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Knowledge Society ◽  
Capacity Development ◽  
Economic Transformation ◽  
High Price ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
K 12 ◽  
Boom And Bust Cycles

Due to the continued high price of oil and gas, the oil-rich State of Qatar has used its large budget surpluses in the last decade to finance human capacity development, including research, higher education, and the reshaping of its K-12 educational system. This chapter argues that the recent substantial educational reforms in the State of Qatar are closely intertwined with planned future economic transformation (diversification). Although Qatar possesses the world's third largest reserves of natural gas, this resource is ultimately finite and over-reliance on one major economic driver (hydrocarbons) for the bulk of GDP creates boom and bust cycles that have shaped Gulf politics and social development since the 1970s. This chapter examines Qatar's educational efforts to build a knowledge economy to transition away from a resource-rich export-based hydrocarbon economy towards economic activities linked to patents, research, trademarked technologies, skills, and knowledge products.

Pilbara Seed Atlas and Field Guide

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Plant Communities ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Mining Activities ◽  
Extreme Temperatures ◽  
Native Plant ◽  
Plant Identification ◽  
Field Guide ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
Increasing Demand ◽  
Boom And Bust Cycles

The Pilbara region in Australia’s arid northwest is rich in flora that is suited to extreme temperatures and boom and bust cycles of moisture availability. It is also a region important for its natural resources. In places where mining activities have finished and the land is under management for ecological restoration, there is increasing demand for information about native plant communities and the biology of their seeds. Pilbara Seed Atlas and Field Guide is the first book to combine plant identification with robust, scientific criteria for cost-effective seed-based rehabilitation. It describes 103 regional plant taxa and provides guidelines for effective collection, cleaning, storage and germination of their seeds. It addresses issues such as timing of collection, quality and viability of seed, and dormancy release, which are essential for successful restoration programs. With photographs to portray the subtle differences and unique features of each species’ biology, this book will be of great use to practitioners in the field, including environmental consultants, rehabilitation companies, commercial seed collectors and government authorities, as well as naturalists and people interested in growing the Pilbara’s remarkable plants.

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