Applying human mobility and water consumption data for short-term water demand forecasting using classical and machine learning models

Abstract Regression Tree (RT) forecasting models are widely used in short-term demand forecasting. Likewise, Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) models are known for their ability to cluster and organize unlabeled big data. Herein, a combination of these two Machine Learning (ML) techniques is proposed and compared to a standalone RT and a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models, in forecasting the short-term water demand of a municipality. The inclusion of the Unsupervised Machine Learning clustering model has resulted in a significant improvement in the performance of the Supervised Machine Learning forecasting model. The results show that using the output of the SOM clustering model as an input for the RT forecasting model can, on average, double the accuracy of water demand forecasting. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and the Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE) were calculated for the proposed models forecasting 1 h, 8 h, 24 h, and 7 days ahead. The results show that the hybrid models outperformed the standalone RT model, and the broadly used SARIMA model. On average, hybrid models achieved double accuracy in all 4 forecast periodicities. The increase in forecasting accuracy afforded by this hybridized modeling approach is encouraging. In our application, it shows promises for more efficient energy and water management at the water utilities.

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Performance Assessment for Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Models on Distinctive Water Uses in Korea

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13116056 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (11) ◽

pp. 6056

Author(s):

Kang-Min Koo ◽

Kuk-Heon Han ◽

Kyung-Soo Jun ◽

Gyu-Min Lee ◽

Jung-Sik Kim ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Supply ◽

Water Consumption ◽

Water Demand ◽

Demand Forecasting ◽

Supply System ◽

Water Supply System ◽

Smart Meter ◽

Short Term ◽

Water Demand Forecasting ◽

Smart Water

It is crucial to forecast the water demand accurately for supplying water efficiently and stably in a water supply system. In particular, accurately forecasting short-term water demand helps in saving energy and reducing operating costs. With the introduction of the Smart Water Grid (SWG) in a water supply system, the amount of water consumption is obtained in real-time through a smart meter, which can be used for forecasting the short-term water demand. The models widely used for water demand forecasting include Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Radial Basis Function-Artificial Neural Network, Quantitative Multi-Model Predictor Plus, and Long Short-Term Memory. However, there is a lack of research on assessing the performance of models and forecasting the short-term water demand in the SWG demonstration plant. Therefore, in this study, the short-term water demand was forecasted for each model using the data collected from a smart meter, and the performance of each model was assessed. The Smart Water Grid Research Group installed a smart meter in block 112 located in YeongJong Island, Incheon, and the actual data used for operating the SWG demonstration plant were adopted. The performance of the model was assessed by using the Residual, Root Mean Square Error, Normalized Root Mean Square Error, Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency, and Pearson Correlation Coefficient as indices. As a result of water demand forecasting, it is difficult to forecast water demand only by time and water consumption. Therefore, as the short-term water demand forecasting models using only time and the amount of water consumption have limitations in reflecting the characteristics of consumers, a water supply system can be managed more precisely if other factors (weather, customer behavior, etc.) influencing the water demand are applied.

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Performance Assessment for Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Models at an End-Use Level in Korea

10.20944/preprints202104.0332.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Kang Min Koo ◽

Kuk Heon Han ◽

Kyung Soo Jun ◽

Gyumin Lee ◽

Jung Sik Kim ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Supply ◽

Water Consumption ◽

Water Demand ◽

Demand Forecasting ◽

Supply System ◽

Water Supply System ◽

Short Term ◽

Water Demand Forecasting ◽

Smart Water ◽

End Use

It is crucial to forecast the water demand accurately for supplying water efficiently and stably in a water supply system. In particular, accurately forecasting short-term water demand helps in saving energy and reducing operating costs. With the introduction of the Smart Water Grid (SWG) in a water supply system, the amount of water consumption is obtained in real time through an advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) sensor, which can be used for forecasting the short-term water demand. The models widely used for water demand forecasting include the autoregressive integrated moving average, radial basis function-artificial neural network, quantitative multi-model predictor plus, and long short-term memory. However, there is a lack of research on assessing the performance of models and forecasting the short-term water demand by applying the data on the amount of water consumption by purpose and the pipe diameter of an end-use level of the SWG demonstration plant in each demand forecasting model. Therefore, in this study, the short-term water demand was forecasted for each model using the data collected from the AMI, and the performance of each model was assessed. The Smart Water Grid Research Group installed ultrasonic-wave-type AMI sensors in the block 112 located in YeongJong Island, Incheon, and the actual data used for operating the SWG demonstration plant were adopted. The performance of the model was assessed by using the residual, root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) as indices. The water demand forecast was slightly underestimated in models that employed the assessment results based on the RMSE and NRMSE. Furthermore, the forecasting accuracy was low for the NSE due to a large number of negative values; the correlation between the observed and forecasted values of the PCC was not high, and it was difficult to forecast the peak amount of water consumption. Therefore, as the short-term water demand forecasting models using only time and the amount of water consumption have limitations in reflecting the characteristics of consumers, a water supply system can be managed more precisely if other factors (weather, customer behavior, etc.) influencing the water demand are applied.

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Short-term water demand forecasting using machine learning techniques

Journal of Hydroinformatics ◽

10.2166/hydro.2018.163 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 20 (6) ◽

pp. 1343-1366 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

A. Antunes ◽

A. Andrade-Campos ◽

A. Sardinha-Lourenço ◽

M. S. Oliveira

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Water Demand ◽

Demand Forecasting ◽

Maximum Level ◽

Water Utilities ◽

Machine Learning Techniques ◽

Support Vector ◽

Short Term ◽

Water Demand Forecasting ◽

Learning Techniques

Abstract Nowadays, a large number of water utilities still manage their operation on the instant water demand of the network, meaning that the use of the equipment is conditioned by the immediate water necessity. The water reservoirs of the networks are filled using pumps that start working when the water level reaches a specified minimum, stopping when it reaches a maximum level. Shifting the focus to water management based on future demand allows use of the equipment when energy is cheaper, taking advantage of the electricity tariff in action, thus bringing significant financial savings over time. Short-term water demand forecasting is a crucial step to support decision making regarding the equipment operation management. For this purpose, forecasting methodologies are analyzed and implemented. Several machine learning methods, such as neural networks, random forests, support vector machines and k-nearest neighbors, are evaluated using real data from two Portuguese water utilities. Moreover, the influence of factors such as weather, seasonality, amount of data used in training and forecast window is also analysed. A weighted parallel strategy that gathers the advantages of the different machine learning techniques is suggested. The results are validated and compared with those achieved by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) also using benchmarks.

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LAYERED MACHINE LEARNING FOR SHORT-TERM WATER DEMAND FORECASTING

Environmental Engineering and Management Journal ◽

10.30638/eemj.2015.221 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 14 (9) ◽

pp. 2061-2072

Author(s):

Antonio Candelieri ◽

Davide Soldi ◽

Francesco Archetti

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Water Demand ◽

Demand Forecasting ◽

Short Term ◽

Water Demand Forecasting

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Short-Term Prediction of COVID-19 Cases Using Machine Learning Models

Applied Sciences ◽

10.3390/app11094266 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (9) ◽

pp. 4266

Author(s):

Md. Shahriare Satu ◽

Koushik Chandra Howlader ◽

Mufti Mahmud ◽

M. Shamim Kaiser ◽

Sheikh Mohammad Shariful Islam ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Web Application ◽

Learning Models ◽

Short Term ◽

Infected People ◽

Infected Case ◽

First Case ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Short Term Prediction ◽

Machine Learning Models

The first case in Bangladesh of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was reported on 8 March 2020, with the number of confirmed cases rapidly rising to over 175,000 by July 2020. In the absence of effective treatment, an essential tool of health policy is the modeling and forecasting of the progress of the pandemic. We, therefore, developed a cloud-based machine learning short-term forecasting model for Bangladesh, in which several regression-based machine learning models were applied to infected case data to estimate the number of COVID-19-infected people over the following seven days. This approach can accurately forecast the number of infected cases daily by training the prior 25 days sample data recorded on our web application. The outcomes of these efforts could aid the development and assessment of prevention strategies and identify factors that most affect the spread of COVID-19 infection in Bangladesh.

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Prediction of Head Movement in 360-Degree Videos Using Attention Model

Sensors ◽

10.3390/s21113678 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (11) ◽

pp. 3678

Author(s):

Dongwon Lee ◽

Minji Choi ◽

Joohyun Lee

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Moving Average ◽

The Other ◽

Learning Models ◽

Short Term ◽

Term Memory ◽

Attention Model ◽

Long Short Term Memory ◽

Machine Learning Models

In this paper, we propose a prediction algorithm, the combination of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and attention model, based on machine learning models to predict the vision coordinates when watching 360-degree videos in a Virtual Reality (VR) or Augmented Reality (AR) system. Predicting the vision coordinates while video streaming is important when the network condition is degraded. However, the traditional prediction models such as Moving Average (MA) and Autoregression Moving Average (ARMA) are linear so they cannot consider the nonlinear relationship. Therefore, machine learning models based on deep learning are recently used for nonlinear predictions. We use the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network methods, originated in Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), and predict the head position in the 360-degree videos. Therefore, we adopt the attention model to LSTM to make more accurate results. We also compare the performance of the proposed model with the other machine learning models such as Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and RNN using the root mean squared error (RMSE) of predicted and real coordinates. We demonstrate that our model can predict the vision coordinates more accurately than the other models in various videos.

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Random forest and long short-term memory based machine learning models for classification of ion mobility spectrometry spectra

Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and Explosives (CBRNE) Sensing XXII ◽

10.1117/12.2585829 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Patrick C. Riley ◽

Samir V. Deshpande ◽

Brian S. Ince ◽

Brian C. Hauck ◽

Kyle P. O'Donnell ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Random Forest ◽

Ion Mobility ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Learning Models ◽

Short Term ◽

Term Memory ◽

Long Short Term Memory ◽

Machine Learning Models

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Ambient Monitoring of Gait and Machine Learning Models for Dynamic and Short-Term Falls Risk Assessment in People With Dementia

10.36227/techrxiv.16943395 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Navid Korhani ◽

Babak Taati ◽

Andrea Iaboni ◽

Andrea Sabo ◽

Sina Mehdizadeh ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Fall Risk ◽

Learning Models ◽

Short Term ◽

Ambient Monitoring ◽

Clinical Assessments ◽

People With Dementia ◽

Time Of Admission ◽

Machine Learning Models

Data consists of baseline clinical assessments of gait, mobility, and fall risk at the time of admission of 54 adults with dementia. Furthermore, it includes the participants' daily medication intake in three medication categories, and frequent assessments of gait performed via a computer vision-based ambient monitoring system.

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