The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps

Abstract. A single large glacier can contain hundreds of millions of times the mass of a small glacier. Nevertheless, small glaciers are so numerous that their contribution to the world's total ice volume is significant and may be a notable source of error if excluded. With current glacier inventories, total volume errors on the order of 10 % are possible at both global and regional scales. However, errors of less than 1 % require glaciers that are smaller than those available in some inventories. Such accuracy requires a global list of all glaciers and ice caps (GIC) as small as 1 km2, and for regional estimates requires substantially smaller sizes. For some regions, volume errors of less than 5 % require a complete list of all glaciers down to the smallest conceivable sizes. For this reason, sea-level rise estimates and other total mass and total volume analyses cannot ignore the world's smallest glaciers without careful justification.

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Volume–area scaling parameterisation of Norwegian ice caps: A comparison of different approaches

The Holocene ◽

10.1177/0959683616652712 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 27 (1) ◽

pp. 164-171 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Tron Laumann ◽

Atle Nesje

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Sea Level Change ◽

Global Scale ◽

Two Dimensional ◽

Ice Caps ◽

Level Change ◽

Global Sea Level ◽

Best Fit

Over the recent decades, glaciers have in general continued to lose mass, causing surface lowering, volume reduction and frontal retreat, thus contributing to global sea-level rise. When making assessments of present and future sea-level change and management of water resources in glaciated catchments, precise estimates of glacier volume are important. The glacier volume cannot be measured on every single glacier. Therefore, the global glacier volume must be estimated from models or scaling approaches. Volume–area scaling is mostly applied for estimating volumes of glaciers and ice caps on a regional and global scale by using a statistical–theoretical relationship between glacier volume ( V) and area ( A) ( V = cAγ) (for explanation of the parameters c and γ, see Eq. 1). In this paper, a two-dimensional (2D) glacier model has been applied on four Norwegian ice caps (Hardangerjøkulen, Nordre Folgefonna, Spørteggbreen and Vestre Svartisen) in order to obtain values for the volume–area relationship on ice caps. The curve obtained for valley glaciers gives the best fit to the smallest plateau glaciers when c = 0.027 km3−2 γ and γ = 1.375, and a slightly poorer fit when the glacier increases in size. For ice caps, c = 0.056 km3−2 γ and γ = 1.25 fit reasonably well for the largest, but yield less fit to the smaller.

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Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise

Nature Geoscience ◽

10.1038/ngeo1052 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 91-94 ◽

Cited By ~ 312

Author(s):

Valentina Radić ◽

Regine Hock

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Caps ◽

Mountain Glaciers

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Simulations of the Greenland ice sheet 100 years into the future with the full Stokes model Elmer/Ice

Journal of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/2012jog11j177 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 58 (209) ◽

pp. 427-440 ◽

Cited By ~ 91

Author(s):

Hakime Seddik ◽

Ralf Greve ◽

Thomas Zwinger ◽

Fabien Gillet-Chaulet ◽

Olivier Gagliardini

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Ice Streams ◽

Simulation Code ◽

Dynamic Scenario ◽

The Future ◽

Basal Sliding

AbstractIt is likely that climate change will have a significant impact on the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet, contributing to future sea-level rise. Here we present the implementation of the full Stokes model Elmer/Ice for the Greenland ice sheet, which includes a mesh refinement technique in order to resolve fast-flowing ice streams and outlet glaciers. We discuss simulations 100 years into the future, forced by scenarios defined by the SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) community effort. For comparison, the same experiments are also run with the shallow-ice model SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets). We find that Elmer/Ice is ~43% more sensitive (exhibits a larger loss of ice-sheet volume relative to the control run) than SICOPOLIS for the ice-dynamic scenario (doubled basal sliding), but ~61 % less sensitive for the direct global warming scenario (based on the A1 B moderate-emission scenario for greenhouse gases). The scenario with combined A1B global warming and doubled basal sliding forcing produces a Greenland contribution to sea-level rise of ~15cm for Elmer/Ice and ~12cm for SICOPOLIS over the next 100 years.

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Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise

Nature ◽

10.1038/nature10847 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 482 (7386) ◽

pp. 514-518 ◽

Cited By ~ 618

Author(s):

Thomas Jacob ◽

John Wahr ◽

W. Tad Pfeffer ◽

Sean Swenson

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Caps

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Glacier dynamics over the last quarter of a century at Jakobshavn Isbræ

The Cryosphere Discussions ◽

10.5194/tcd-9-4865-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 9 (5) ◽

pp. 4865-4892

Author(s):

I. S. Muresan ◽

S. A. Khan ◽

A. Aschwanden ◽

C. Khroulev ◽

T. Van Dam ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

21St Century ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Outlet Glacier ◽

The Past ◽

Glacier Dynamics ◽

The Future ◽

Oceanic Forcing

Abstract. Observations over the past two decades show substantial ice loss associated with the speedup of marine terminating glaciers in Greenland. Here we use a regional 3-D outlet glacier model to simulate the behaviour of Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI) located in west Greenland. Using atmospheric and oceanic forcing we tune our model to reproduce the observed frontal changes of JI during 1990–2014. We identify two major accelerations. The first occurs in 1998, and is triggered by moderate thinning prior to 1998. The second acceleration, which starts in 2003 and peaks in summer 2004, is triggered by the final breakup of the floating tongue, which generates a reduction in buttressing at the JI terminus. This results in further thinning, and as the slope steepens inland, sustained high velocities have been observed at JI over the last decade. As opposed to other regions on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), where dynamically induced mass loss has slowed down over recent years, both modelled and observed results for JI suggest a continuation of the acceleration in mass loss. Further, we find that our model is not able to capture the 2012 peak in the observed velocities. Our analysis suggests that the 2012 acceleration of JI is likely the result of an exceptionally long melt season dominated by extreme melt events. Considering that such extreme surface melt events are expected to intensify in the future, our findings suggest that the 21st century projections of the GrIS mass loss and the future sea level rise may be larger than predicted by existing modelling results.

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The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 1: Projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-15-1015-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 15 (2) ◽

pp. 1015-1030 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Aurélien Quiquet ◽

Christophe Dumas

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

The Future ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

Global Sea Level

Abstract. Polar amplification will result in amplified temperature changes in the Arctic with respect to the rest of the globe, making the Greenland ice sheet particularly vulnerable to global warming. While the ice sheet has been showing an increased mass loss in the past decades, its contribution to global sea level rise in the future is of primary importance since it is at present the largest single-source contribution after the thermosteric contribution. The question of the fate of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets for the next century has recently gathered various ice sheet models in a common framework within the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (ISMIP6). While in a companion paper we present the GRISLI-LSCE (Grenoble Ice Sheet and Land Ice model of the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) contribution to ISMIP6-Antarctica, we present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6-Greenland. We show an important spread in the simulated Greenland ice loss in the future depending on the climate forcing used. The contribution of the ice sheet to global sea level rise in 2100 can thus be from as low as 20 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) to as high as 160 mm SLE. Amongst the models tested in ISMIP6, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) models produce larger ice sheet retreat than their CMIP5 counterparts. Low-emission scenarios in the future drastically reduce the ice mass loss. The oceanic forcing contributes to about 10 mm SLE in 2100 in our simulations. In addition, the dynamical contribution to ice thickness change is small compared to the impact of surface mass balance. This suggests that mass loss is mostly driven by atmospheric warming and associated ablation at the ice sheet margin. With additional sensitivity experiments we also show that the spread in mass loss is only weakly affected by the choice of the ice sheet model mechanical parameters.

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How past sea-level changes can inform future planning: A case study from the Macleay River estuary, New South Wales, Australia

The Holocene ◽

10.1177/0959683614544055 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 24 (11) ◽

pp. 1591-1601 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Sarah A McGowan ◽

Robert GV Baker

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

New South ◽

New South Wales ◽

River Estuary ◽

The Past ◽

Case Study Area ◽

South Wales ◽

The Future

Climate change poses many challenges for the future management and development of the coastal zone. Uncertainties in the rate of future sea-level rise reduce our ability to project potential future impacts. This study seeks to further develop the past–present–future methodology proposed in Baker and McGowan and apply it to an additional case study, the Macleay River estuary, New South Wales (NSW), Australia. The past–present–future methodology uses evidence from the past, the Holocene and Pleistocene, to formulate a response function that can be used to project future sea-level heights. Three scenarios for 2100 were developed to emphasise the uncertainties surrounding future sea levels and the need to consider multiple sea-level rise scenarios when planning for the future: a best case (90 cm rise), mid-case (2.6 m rise) and worst case (5 m rise). Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data were used to project each of the three scenarios onto the case study area of South West Rocks. The methodology was tested by using shell samples extracted from cores which were AMS dated to determine whether or not Holocene estuarine conditions correlated with the proposed future sea-level rise inundation scenarios. We also conducted an audit of potentially affected infrastructure and land uses, and proposed possible future adaptation strategies for the case study area.

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