scholarly journals Perspectives on tipping points in integrated models of the natural and human earth system: cascading effects and telecoupling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian L. E. Franzke ◽  
Alessio Ciullo ◽  
Elisabeth A. Gilmore ◽  
Denise Margaret Matias ◽  
Nidhi Nagabhatla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tipping Points ◽  
Social Forces ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Integrated Models ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Earth Systems ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Systematic Development ◽  
Climate Crisis

Abstract The Earth system and the human system are intrinsically linked. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have led to the climate crisis, which is causing unprecedented extreme events and could trigger Earth system tipping elements. Physical and social forces can lead to tipping points and cascading effects via feedbacks and telecoupling, but the current generation of climate-economy models do not generally take account of these interactions and feedbacks. Here, we show the importance of the interplay between human societies and Earth systems in creating tipping points and cascading effects and the way they in turn affect sustainability and security. The lack of modeling of these links can lead to an underestimation of climate and societal risks as well as how societal tipping points can be harnessed to moderate physical impacts. This calls for the systematic development of models for a better integration and understanding of Earth and human systems at different spatial and temporal scales, specifically those that enable decision-making to reduce the likelihood of crossing local or global tipping points.

Spatial Nonlinearities: Cascading Effects in the Earth System

2007 ◽  
pp. 165-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debra P. C. Peters ◽  
Roger A. Pielke ◽  
Brandon T. Bestelmeyer ◽  
Craig D. Allen ◽  
Stuart Munson-McGee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Earth System ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
The Earth

Tipping Points in the Anthropocene: Crafting a Just and Sustainable Earth

2017 ◽  
Vol 04 (01) ◽  
pp. 1750004 ◽  
Author(s):  
David C. Eisenhauer
Keyword(s):  
Political Theory ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Science And Technology Studies ◽  
Sustainability Science ◽  
Modern Science ◽  
Tipping Point ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Critical Thresholds ◽  
The Earth

The arrival of the Anthropocene entails an evolutionary tipping point that challenges basic precepts of political theory and modern science. Within this paper, emerging scholarship in political science, science and technology studies, and sustainability science are brought together to sketch out an approach for crafting more just and sustainable pathways in response to the crossing of critical thresholds in the Earth system. Accomplishing this task requires responding to the emerging reality of possibility, irreversibility, entanglement, and novelty that the Anthropocene and tipping points entail. I argue that grounding political projects in recognition of the unfolding and unpredictable terrain tipping points present allows for the opening of novel pathways toward a still possible just and sustainable planet.

scholarly journals From Domination to a Caring Ecology: Healing Paradigms and Creative Practices for the Apprenticene

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonee Kulman Brigham
Keyword(s):  
Natural Environment ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Human Environment ◽  
Creative Practice ◽  
Earth Systems ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Ecological Principles

This article explores, in four main sections, the idea of designing and applying human-environment paradigms. First, Caring Ecology criteria for human-environment paradigms are proposed that combine the principles of caring in Partnership Studies, with compatible ecological conceptions of humans’ dependent and integrated relationship within Earth systems. Next, these criteria are used to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of five environmental paradigms which sets the stage for the following section critiquing the current “Anthropocene” paradigm and proposing a counter-paradigm: the “Apprenticene.” Paradigms suggest roles and actions and “Apprenticene Practices” are proposed, calling for humans to see our dependence on Earth systems, heal our story as we accept past failures, and learn by apprenticing ourselves to the Earth system. Finally, these Apprenticene Practices are illustrated in an example of a creative practice called Earth Systems Journey that engages youth with an integrated experience of their human-natural environment. The paper concludes with reflections on how Partnership Studies and ecological principles can work together to support a thriving future for humans and the rest of nature.

Aerosol Chemistry and Effects in the Anthropocene

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Carmichael
Keyword(s):  
Human Health ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosols ◽  
Chemical Properties ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Earth Systems ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Physical And Chemical

<p>Atmospheric aerosols impact air quality and human health. They also play a key role in the Earth’s weather and climate systems.  Aerosol amounts and physical and chemical properties determine their toxicity, radiative and microphysical impacts. Recent advances in observations and models are significantly enhancing our ability to quantify the distribution and properties of aerosols, understand their impacts on atmospheric radiation and cloud distributions and properties, and their presence near the Earth’s surface and the resulting impacts to human health. There is a need for closer integration of aerosols into numerical prediction systems. The World Meteorological Organization has set a strategic goal to advance earth systems modeling to enhance seamless prediction of environmental, weather and climate services across spatial and temporal scales. In this talk the need for this approach and the opportunities and advances will be discussed.</p>

scholarly journals The Earth System: An Introduction to Earth Systems Science

Eos ◽  
1999 ◽  
Vol 80 (48) ◽  
pp. 577
Author(s):  
Eric E. Small
Keyword(s):  
Systems Science ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Earth Systems ◽  
The Earth

scholarly journals Scientists Announce TiPES Project

Eos ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Blaustein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Earth System ◽  
The Earth ◽  
System Project

The European Tipping Points in the Earth System project is a multidisciplinary effort to clarify and explain the dynamics and thresholds of climate change tipping points.

scholarly journals Cascading regime shifts within and across scales

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan C. Rocha ◽  
Garry Peterson ◽  
Örjan Bodin ◽  
Simon A. Levin
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Regime Shifts ◽  
Aquatic Systems ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Control Case ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
Cascading Effect ◽  
Earth Systems ◽  
Critical Transitions ◽  
Structural Interdependence

AbstractRegime shifts are large, abrupt and persistent critical transitions in the function and structure of systems (1, 2). Yet it is largely unknown how these transitions will interact, whether the occurrence of one will increase the likelihood of another, or simply correlate at distant places. Here we explore two types of cascading effects: domino effects create one-way dependencies, while hidden feedbacks produce two-way interactions; and compare them with the control case of driver sharing which can induce correlations. Using 30 regime shifts described as networks, we show that 45% of the pair-wise combinations of regime shifts present at least one plausible structural interdependence. Driver sharing is more common in aquatic systems, while hidden feedbacks are more commonly found in terrestrial and Earth systems tipping points. The likelihood of cascading effects depends on cross-scale interactions, but differs for each cascading effect type. Regime shifts should not be studied in isolation: instead, methods and data collection should account for potential teleconnections.

scholarly journals Tipping Points in the Earth System

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Mackie
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Tipping Point ◽  
Critical Threshold ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Small Change

There is mounting evidence that some parts of the Earth system may be at risk of abrupt and potentially irreversible changes, driven by the cumulative impact of incremental global warming. Such a non-linear transition could be triggered if a critical threshold in global temperature – a “tipping point” – is crossed, when a small change could push a system into a completely new state, with potentially catastrophic impacts. In this technical briefing, we will first define tipping points and tipping elements, then explore several tipping elements in more detail and discuss the questions of abruptness, irreversibility, timescales and uncertainties for each of them. We also investigate the possibility of developing early warning systems for tipping points, and the risk of cascades of interacting tipping points, where one tipping point could trigger another.

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