scholarly journals Adjusting Coronavirus Prevalence Estimates for Laboratory Test Kit Error

2020 ◽  
Vol 190 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher T Sempos ◽  
Lu Tian
Keyword(s):  
Policy Decisions ◽  
True Prevalence ◽  
Test Kit ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Prevalence Estimates ◽  
Testing Error ◽  
State And Local Government ◽  
State And Local ◽  
Government Rules ◽  
Public Policy Decisions

Abstract Testing representative populations to determine the prevalence or the percentage of the population with active severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection and/or antibodies to infection is being recommended as essential for making public policy decisions to ease restrictions or to continue enforcing national, state, and local government rules to shelter in place. However, all laboratory tests are imperfect and have estimates of sensitivity and specificity less than 100%—in some cases, considerably less than 100%. That error will lead to biased prevalence estimates. If the true prevalence is low, possibly in the range of 1%–5%, then testing error will lead to a constant background of bias that most likely will be larger, and possibly much larger, than the true prevalence itself. As a result, what is needed is a method for adjusting prevalence estimates for testing error. Methods are outlined in this article for adjusting prevalence estimates for testing error both prospectively in studies being planned and retrospectively in studies that have been conducted. If used, these methods also would help harmonize study results within countries and worldwide. Adjustment can lead to more accurate prevalence estimates and to better policy decisions. However, adjustment will not improve the accuracy of an individual test.

scholarly journals Adjusting Coronavirus prevalence estimates for laboratory test kit error

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Sempos ◽  
Lu Tian
Keyword(s):  
Policy Decisions ◽  
True Prevalence ◽  
Test Kit ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Prevalence Estimates ◽  
Testing Error ◽  
State And Local Government ◽  
State And Local ◽  
Government Rules ◽  
Public Policy Decisions

Testing representative populations to determine the prevalence or percent of the population with active SARS-Cov-2 (COVID-19) infection and/or antibodies to infection is being recommended as essential for making public policy decisions to open-up or to continue enforcing national, state and local government rules to shelter-in-place. However, all laboratory tests are imperfect and have estimates of sensitivity and specificity less than 100% - in some cases considerably less than 100%. That error will lead to biased prevalence estimates. If the true prevalence of COVID-19 is low, possibly in the range of 1-5%, then testing error will lead to a constant background of bias that will most likely be larger and possibly much larger than the true prevalence itself. As a result, what is needed is a method for adjusting prevalence estimates for testing error. In this paper we outline methods for adjusting prevalence estimates for testing error both prospectively in studies being planned and retrospectively in studies that have been conducted. The methods if employed would also help to harmonize study results within countries and around the world. Adjustment can lead to more accurate prevalence estimates and to better policy decisions.

INITIATIVE BUDGETING AS AN INSTRUMENT OF TERRITORIAL SELF-GOVERNMENT

2019 ◽  
Vol 86 (3) ◽  
pp. 77-90
Author(s):  
V. V. Vagin ◽  
N. A. Shapovalova
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Citizen Participation ◽  
Institutional Analysis ◽  
Institutional Development ◽  
Development Programs ◽  
Theoretical Understanding ◽  
State And Local Government ◽  
State And Local ◽  
Government Initiative ◽  
Local Levels

The article is devoted to the actual issue – institutional analysis of initiative budgeting and territorial public selfgovernment, as well as the possibility of their integration. Over the past few years, a system of civil participation in budget decisions has been built in Russia, the regulatory framework of practices has been created, thousands of employees of state and local government bodies have been trained, project centers have appeared for ensuring development of initiative budgeting. Citizen participation in budget decisions can significantly accelerate the development of the lower level of local government. Initiative budgeting is an innovative instrument of public finance and at the same time a social technology allowing for the real involvement of citizens in the issues of state and municipal governance. Initiative budgeting development programs make it possible to transfer financing of projects aimed at solving local issues with the participation of citizens onto a systemic basis. The results and materials of this study can serve a foundation for theoretical understanding of the institutional development of public finances at the regional and local levels. At the same time, this practical area that was intensively developing in recent years requires deep institutional analysis.

A Comprehensive Review of the Evolution of Accounting Standards for State and Local Government Pensions and Other Postemployment Benefits in The United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-77
Author(s):  
Dale L. Flesher ◽  
Craig Foltin ◽  
Gary John Previts ◽  
Mary S. Stone
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Accounting Standards ◽  
The United States ◽  
Pension Funds ◽  
Defined Benefit ◽  
Defined Contribution ◽  
Defined Contribution Plans ◽  
State And Local Government ◽  
State And Local

ABSTRACT Both the business media and the popular press have emphasized the underfunding problems associated with pension funds that are set aside for state and local government workers, a group that also includes teachers and professors at state-affiliated colleges and universities. The realization that pension funds are typically underfunded stems from the fact that the accounting standards associated with state and local government employee pension funds have led to greater transparency since 2011. This paper examines, explains, and interprets the historical development over the last 70 years of accounting standards for state and local government pension funds in the United States. Changing accounting standards, along with economic and social change, have led to consequences such as employers transforming their pension programs to avoid substantial costs and significant liabilities, for example by changing from defined benefit to defined contribution plans.

The Relevance of Trust

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inmaculada de Melo-Martín ◽  
Kristen Intemann
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Epistemic Trust ◽  
Proper Role ◽  
Scientific Institutions ◽  
Public Policy Decisions ◽  
Scientific Phenomena

This chapter offers a brief overview of the importance of epistemic trust and the relevance that scientific institutions and practices have in promoting or undermining warranted public trust. Epistemic trust is crucial for the production of scientific knowledge, the ability of the public to make sense of scientific phenomena, and the development of public policy. Normatively inappropriate dissent is more likely to take hold and erroneously affect people’s beliefs and actions in a context where the trustworthiness of scientists is called into question and where there is an excessive reliance on scientific information when it comes to assessing policy decisions. Thus, finding ways to facilitate and sustain warranted epistemic trust, as well as increasing understanding of the proper role of science in public policy decisions can help mitigate the negative impact of dissenting views.

Combating Problems in Teaching State and Local Government

1981 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
pp. 19-20
Author(s):  
Mary H. Waite
Keyword(s):  
Community Colleges ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Public Universities ◽  
The State ◽  
State And Local Government ◽  
State And Local ◽  
Science Instructors

Because many political science instructors come from another region or state; they feel insufficiently informed in teaching about the state and local government wherein they presently reside. Consequently, instructors generalize about these governments. Yet in many public universities and community colleges, students find the politics in their area pertinent and care less for comparative analysis. In truth, the students probably have a valid point, since the majority will reside in the state where they are attending college.

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