Heavy Drinkers and the Potential Impact of Minimum Unit Pricing—No Single or Simple Effect?

ObjectivesTo quantify the potential impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol on alcohol consumption, spending and health in South Africa. We provide these estimates disaggregated by different drinker groups and wealth quintiles.DesignWe developed an epidemiological policy appraisal model to estimate the effects of MUP across sex, drinker groups (moderate, occasional binge, heavy) and wealth quintiles. Stakeholder interviews and workshops informed model development and ensured policy relevance.SettingSouth African drinking population aged 15+.ParticipantsThe population (aged 15+) of South Africa in 2018 stratified by drinking group and wealth quintiles, with a model time horizon of 20 years.Main outcome measuresChange in standard drinks (SDs) (12 g of ethanol) consumed, weekly spend on alcohol, annual number of cases and deaths for five alcohol-related health conditions (HIV, intentional injury, road injury, liver cirrhosis and breast cancer), reported by drinker groups and wealth quintile.ResultsWe estimate an MUP of R10 per SD would lead to an immediate reduction in consumption of 4.40% (−0.93 SD/week) and an increase in spend of 18.09%. The absolute reduction is greatest for heavy drinkers (−1.48 SD/week), followed by occasional binge drinkers (−0.41 SD/week) and moderate drinkers (−0.40 SD/week). Over 20 years, we estimate 20 585 fewer deaths and 9 00 332 cases averted across the five health-modelled harms.Poorer drinkers would see greater impacts from the policy (consumption: −7.75% in the poorest quintile, −3.19% in richest quintile). Among the heavy drinkers, 85% of the cases averted and 86% of the lives saved accrue to the bottom three wealth quintiles.ConclusionsWe estimate that MUP would reduce alcohol consumption in South Africa, improving health outcomes while raising retail and tax revenue. Consumption and harm reductions would be greater in poorer groups.

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Potential impact of minimum unit pricing on advertised alcoholic beverage prices

10.31235/osf.io/cbgja ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Jonathan K. Noel

Keyword(s):

Alcoholic Beverage ◽

Inverse Correlation ◽

Price Policy ◽

Potential Effect ◽

Unit Price ◽

Alcoholic Beverages ◽

Standard Drink ◽

Potential Impact ◽

Unit Pricing ◽

Alcohol Prices

The current study sought to determine the potential effect of a minimum unit price policy on advertised prices for alcoholic beverages at an off-premise outlet. A free, weekly circular was monitored for advertised alcohol prices from July 2017 to June 2018. For each advertised price, the number of standard drinks per purchase, the price per standard drink, and the frequency of prices that would increase under a MUP policy similar to Scotland’s was determined. There was an inverse correlation between the number of standard drinks per purchase and the advertised price per standard drink for beer/malt beverages (r = -0.76, p < 0.001) and wine (r = -0.42, p < 0.001), which would be eliminated under MUP. Under MUP, 59.8% of advertised prices for beer/malt beverages would increase. Implementation of MUP may significantly impact beer and malt beverage prices in the off-premise location monitored in the study.

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Effects of Gender, Parental Role, and Time on Infant- and Adult-Directed Read and Spontaneous Speech

Journal of Speech Language and Hearing Research ◽

10.1044/2019_jslhr-s-19-0047 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 62 (11) ◽

pp. 4001-4014

Author(s):

Melanie Weirich ◽

Adrian Simpson

Keyword(s):

Parental Involvement ◽

Gender Identity ◽

Spontaneous Speech ◽

First Year ◽

Space Size ◽

Vowel Space ◽

Potential Impact ◽

Phonetic Features ◽

And Gender ◽

Description Task

Purpose The study sets out to investigate inter- and intraspeaker variation in German infant-directed speech (IDS) and considers the potential impact that the factors gender, parental involvement, and speech material (read vs. spontaneous speech) may have. In addition, we analyze data from 3 time points prior to and after the birth of the child to examine potential changes in the features of IDS and, particularly also, of adult-directed speech (ADS). Here, the gender identity of a speaker is considered as an additional factor. Method IDS and ADS data from 34 participants (15 mothers, 19 fathers) is gathered by means of a reading and a picture description task. For IDS, 2 recordings were made when the baby was approximately 6 and 9 months old, respectively. For ADS, an additional recording was made before the baby was born. Phonetic analyses comprise mean fundamental frequency (f0), variation in f0, the 1st 2 formants measured in /i: ɛ a u:/, and the vowel space size. Moreover, social and behavioral data were gathered regarding parental involvement and gender identity. Results German IDS is characterized by an increase in mean f0, a larger variation in f0, vowel- and formant-specific differences, and a larger acoustic vowel space. No effect of gender or parental involvement was found. Also, the phonetic features of IDS were found in both spontaneous and read speech. Regarding ADS, changes in vowel space size in some of the fathers and in mean f0 in mothers were found. Conclusion Phonetic features of German IDS are robust with respect to the factors gender, parental involvement, speech material (read vs. spontaneous speech), and time. Some phonetic features of ADS changed within the child's first year depending on gender and parental involvement/gender identity. Thus, further research on IDS needs to address also potential changes in ADS.

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Exploring the Potential Impact of Sentence-Level Comprehension and Sentence-Level Fluency on Deaf Students' Passage Comprehension

Journal of Speech Language and Hearing Research ◽

10.1044/2020_jslhr-19-00205 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 63 (7) ◽

pp. 2281-2292

Author(s):

Ying Zhao ◽

Xinchun Wu ◽

Hongjun Chen ◽

Peng Sun ◽

Ruibo Xie ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Independent Predictor ◽

Vocabulary Knowledge ◽

Group Differences ◽

Regression Analyses ◽

Deaf Students ◽

Mediating Role ◽

Sentence Level ◽

Mediating Mechanisms ◽

Potential Impact ◽

The Relationship

Purpose This exploratory study aimed to investigate the potential impact of sentence-level comprehension and sentence-level fluency on passage comprehension of deaf students in elementary school. Method A total of 159 deaf students, 65 students ( M age = 13.46 years) in Grades 3 and 4 and 94 students ( M age = 14.95 years) in Grades 5 and 6, were assessed for nonverbal intelligence, vocabulary knowledge, sentence-level comprehension, sentence-level fluency, and passage comprehension. Group differences were examined using t tests, whereas the predictive and mediating mechanisms were examined using regression modeling. Results The regression analyses showed that the effect of sentence-level comprehension on passage comprehension was not significant, whereas sentence-level fluency was an independent predictor in Grades 3–4. Sentence-level comprehension and fluency contributed significant variance to passage comprehension in Grades 5–6. Sentence-level fluency fully mediated the influence of sentence-level comprehension on passage comprehension in Grades 3–4, playing a partial mediating role in Grades 5–6. Conclusions The relative contributions of sentence-level comprehension and fluency to deaf students' passage comprehension varied, and sentence-level fluency mediated the relationship between sentence-level comprehension and passage comprehension.

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