scholarly journals Seasonal Associations Between Foodborne Campylobacter Infections and Ambient Temperature in US, 2010–2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. 85-85
Author(s):  
Ziming Dou ◽  
Elena Naumova ◽  
Ryan Simpson ◽  
Lauren E Sallade ◽  
Yutong Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ambient Temperature ◽  
The United States ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Monthly Average Temperature ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Campylobacter Infection ◽  
Campylobacter Infections

Abstract Objectives In order to effectively mitigate the effects of climate change on human health, spatiotemporal relationships between Campylobacter infections and environmental drivers have to be systematically examined to determine whether common seasonal summer peaks observed in Campylobacter infections are well aligned with peaks in raising ambient temperatures.  This study aims to evaluate the seasonal relationship between monthly ambient temperature and the monthly Campylobacter infections routinely collected by the CDC Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) in the United States in 2010–2019. Methods We created time series of monthly Campylobacter infection rates from the FoodNet Fast platform for ten participating states from January 2010 to December 2019 (120 months). We estimated average monthly temperatures for the ten states for the study period using the National Climate and Data Center's Global Summary of the Day database. To assess the seasonal synchronization and determine the lag effect, we used serial cross-correlation analysis. To examine the associations between Campylobacter rates with ambient temperature and adjust for seasonality and trend, we applied a harmonic negative binomial mixed-effects regression model. We also estimated peak timing and amplitude for infections and temperature using the δ-method. Results Serial synchronization between monthly Campylobacter infection rates and ambient temperature was observed in all FoodNet Surveillance states except for California. A one-month delay in peak infection after the peak in temperature was detected in Colorado, Connecticut, Maryland, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, and Oregon.  After adjusting for seasonality and trend across ten states, the relative risk of infection rates increased by 5% with the increase in monthly average temperature by 5.45°C equivalent to a shift from 75th to 95th percentile (95%CI: 1.02–1.09, p < 0.002). Conclusions An increase in monthly average temperature is associated with an increased risk of Campylobacter infection after adjusting for common summer seasonal patterns. Knowledge of the relationship will potentially improve the reliability and accuracy of integrated early warning outbreak forecasts and could guide climate mitigation strategies. Funding Sources None.

scholarly journals 1239. Efficacy of Preoperative Chlorhexidine Gluconate and Mupirocin in the Prevention of Orthopedic Surgical Site Infections

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. S446-S446
Author(s):  
Gabrielle Kahler ◽  
Michael Ing
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Protocol ◽  
Retrospective Chart Review ◽  
Surgical Site Infections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Chlorhexidine Gluconate ◽  
Orthopedic Procedures ◽  
Causative Organism ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract Background Surgical site infections (SSIs) affect 1–5% of patients undergoing surgical procedures in the United States each year and have a mortality rate of up to 75%. We sought to assess the efficacy of a bundled preoperative decolonization treatment protocol to prevent SSIs in hip, knee, or spine procedures. Methods A retrospective chart review was conducted for 2224 adult patients undergoing spine, knee, or hip procedures performed at the JL Pettis Memorial VAMC from October 1, 2010 to December 31, 2018. NHSN/CDC criteria were utilized. The study included spine surgeries with or without new hardware, but only hip and knee surgeries with new hardware. Procedures with an infection present at the time of surgery (PATOS) were excluded. A pre-operative methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) nares screen was performed. Patients treated were given mupirocin (MPN) to apply to their nares and 4% chlorhexidine gluconate (CHG) to wash all skin prior to the procedure. Patients undergoing emergent procedures received CHG without MPN. The intention to treat model and chi-square test were utilized. The primary endpoints were the infection rates in both the untreated and treated groups. Secondary endpoints included the MRSA screening result, SSI class, causative organism(s), and the surgical site. Results A total of 2,112 procedures were included in the study. Thirty-three (1.56%) procedures met NHSN/CDC criteria for SSI. Of the 1,754 (83.0%) procedures given decolonization treatment with MPN and/or CHG, 22 (1.25%) developed an SSI. Of the 358 procedures not receiving treatment, 11 (3.07%) developed an SSI. Conclusion Patients given decolonization treatment had a lower infection rate compared with those who were not treated (1.25% vs. 3.07%, P = 0.0115). Even though the decrease in infection rates were most significant for hip procedures, the overall trend favored the use of a preoperative decolonization treatment protocol for all of the orthopedic procedures studied (Table 1). Current barriers include patient compliance and correct use of decolonization agents, which may affect the actual efficacy of decolonization treatment. A possible confounder was the known increased risk of SSIs in emergent procedures. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

scholarly journals ANALYTICAL MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF THE POPULATION OF ARTHROPODS IN THE NON-BLACK EARTH ZONE

2021 ◽  
pp. 128-132
Author(s):  
Vasilevich ◽  
Nikanorova
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Atmospheric Pressure ◽  
Control Area ◽  
Ixodid Ticks ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Monthly Average Temperature ◽  
Blood Sucking ◽  
Average Precipitation

The article provides an example of mathematical analytical modeling of the population size of blood-sucking arthropods on the example of mosquitoes and ixodid ticks that inhabit the Kaluga Region. The presented analytical mathematical models make it possible to clearly assess the influence of environmental factors on parasite populations. The following factors were taken into account: average temperature (monthly and yearly, t, oС); average precipitation (monthly and yearly, S, mm); mean atmospheric pressure (P, mm Hg) for mosquitoes, and monthly average temperature (t, o С), monthly mean relative humidity (Q, %), and mean atmospheric pressure (P, mm Hg) for ixodid ticks. The analysis of the obtained models shows that under weather conditions when monthly mean values of the considered factors are at a zero level, the estimated number of ixodid ticks and mosquitoes will be 1150 and 1529 individuals in the control area per year. The population of ixodid ticks is most significantly influenced by the mean atmospheric pressure; its influence is twice as strong as monthly mean humidity and 6.4 times stronger than the influence of monthly average temperature. The "+" sign indicates that the higher the atmospheric pressure is, the more active ticks are observed. Monthly average precipitation has the greatest effect on the mosquito population.

scholarly journals Measuring the missing: greater racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 burden after accounting for missing race/ethnicity data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katie Labgold ◽  
Sarah Hamid ◽  
Sarita Shah ◽  
Neel R. Gandhi ◽  
Allison Chamberlain ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Bias Adjustment ◽  
Social Inequities ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Race Ethnicity ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Racial Ethnic

AbstractBlack, Hispanic, and Indigenous persons in the United States have an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and death from COVID-19, due to persistent social inequities. The magnitude of the disparity is unclear, however, because race/ethnicity information is often missing in surveillance data. In this study, we quantified the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization, and case fatality rates in an urban county by racial/ethnic group using combined race/ethnicity imputation and quantitative bias-adjustment for misclassification. After bias-adjustment, the magnitude of the absolute racial/ethnic disparity, measured as the difference in infection rates between classified Black and Hispanic persons compared to classified White persons, increased 1.3-fold and 1.6-fold respectively. These results highlight that complete case analyses may underestimate absolute disparities in infection rates. Collecting race/ethnicity information at time of testing is optimal. However, when data are missing, combined imputation and bias-adjustment improves estimates of the racial/ethnic disparities in the COVID-19 burden.

Climatic zoning for the building thermal design in China's rural areas

2021 ◽  
pp. 014362442110081
Author(s):  
Yao Chen ◽  
Zhiwei Wang ◽  
Peng Wei
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Thermal Insulation ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Building Envelope ◽  
Thermal Design ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Monthly Average Temperature ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Climatic Zoning

Building climatic zoning is a prerequisite for implementing building energy efficiency technology, which can help code makers and architects have an accurate understanding of the local climatic conditions. It takes the extreme monthly average temperature as the zoning index in the existing climatic zoning of rural areas in China. There will be unreasonable design phenomena of insufficient or excessive thermal insulation for a building envelope in rural areas. Aiming at the above problems, this paper modifies the current zoning. This research established the cooling and heating degree-day indexes HDD14 and CDD30 based on the thermal comfort characteristics of rural occupants and used the threshold method to subdivide rural areas into eight sub-zones. The results show that the problem of insufficient or excessive thermal insulation in rural areas can be effectively solved by replacing the extreme monthly average temperature index with the degree day index and the annual cumulative building load can be reduced by 6.4% on average without increasing the insulation cost. After more detailed zoning, the variance within the group is reduced and it accurately describes climate diversity, which is conducive to implementing climate-responsive energy-saving design in each subzone. Practical application: The major purpose of this paper is to solve the problem of unreasonable climate zone boundaries specified in the existing Design Standard for Energy Efficiency of Rural Residential Buildings. The existing zoning has led to conflicts between the actual heating demand and the building envelope thermal parameter limits specified in the standard. This work redefines the boundaries of the existing map using more up-to-date weather data to provide the right guidance for architectural designers.

scholarly journals Detailed Köppen-Geiger climate regions of TurkeyTürkiye’nin detaylandırılmış Köppen-Geiger iklim bölgeleri

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erkan Yılmaz ◽  
İhsan Çiçek
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Total Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Climate Classification ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Climate Zones ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Monthly Average Temperature

Turkey is situated in the temperate zone as the macro climate zone. The fact that it remains under the influence of different air masses in every season due to its mathematical position causes differences are experienced in terms of the climate types. Besides its mathematical position, its special position also causes this influence grows stronger and the differences become clear much more. The fact that it is surrounded with seas from three sides, there are high mountain ranges in its northern and southern, its altitude increases from the west to the east, the roughness is high due to the tectonic effects and river erosion cause different climate types are dominant. The distribution of the dispersion areas of these climate types can be made by means of various climate classifications. Köppen-Geiger climate classification is a classification which is used at most in the world and which is used in the comparison of the past environmental conditions and the current environmental conditions and in the comparison of the future climate differences with our present day. Even if the dispersion areas of the climate types are shown according to Köppen-Geiger climate classification by different researchers at global scale, these classifications cannot reflect the diversity in Turkey in the exact manner due to the lack of data and scale problem. In this study, the monthly average temperature and monthly average total precipitation data of 249 meteorological station associated to the General Directorate of Meteorology and the global monthly average temperature and monthly average total precipitation data of the model printouts having 30-minute (approximately 1 km) resolution were used for the purpose of revealing the climate types which are dominant in Turkey according to Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Two different Köppen-Geiger climate types distribution maps were created depending on these two different data set. According to Köppen-Geiger climate classification, it was revealed that there are 13 different Köppen-Geiger climate zones in Turkey. According to this classification, the Mediterranean coasts were revealed to be in the "temperate-dry-hot summer climate- Csa" class, Konya Region and the southern of the Southeast Anatolia was revealed to be of the "dry-hot and cold steppe climate - Bsh-k" type and ET, that's tundra areas were designated in the Northeast Anatolia and Ararat Mountain. Köppen-Geiger climate zones of Turkey which were produced at low resolution in the previous studies were detailed much more in this study.Extended English summary is in the end of Full Text PDF (TURKISH) file. ÖzetTürkiye, makro iklim bölgesi olarak ılıman kuşakta yer almaktadır. Matematik konumu nedeniyle her mevsimde farklı hava kütlelerinin etkisi altında kalması iklim tipleri bakımından farklılıkların yaşanmasına neden olmaktadır. Matematik konumu yanında özel konumu da bu etkinin kuvvetlenmesine ve farklıkların daha da belirginleşmesine neden olur. Üç tarafının denizlerde çevrili olması, kuzey ve güneyinde yüksek dağ sıralarının bulunması, yükseltisinin batıdan doğuya doğru artması, tektonik etkiler ve akarsu aşındırması nedeniyle engebenin fazla olması kısa mesafelerde farklı iklim tiplerinin hüküm sürmesine neden olmaktadır. Bu iklim tiplerinin yayılış alanlarının dağılışı, çeşitli iklim sınıflandırmaları ile yapılabilmektedir. Köppen-Geiger iklim tasnifi, dünyada en fazla kullanılan, geçmiş ortam şartları ile günümüz ortam şartlarının karşılaştırılmasında ve gelecekteki iklim farklılıklarının günümüzle karşılaştırılmasında kullanılan bir sınıflandırmadır. Küresel ölçekte farklı araştırmacılar tarafından Köppen-Geiger iklim sınıflandırmasına göre iklim tiplerinin yayılış alanları gösterilse bile bu sınıflandırmalar veri yetersizliği ve ölçek problemi nedeniyle Türkiye’deki çeşitliliği tam yansıtamamaktadır. Bu çalışmada Köppen-Geiger iklim sınıflandırmasına göre Türkiye’de hüküm süren ikim tiplerini ortaya koymak amacıyla Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü’ne ait 249 meteoroloji istasyonuna ait aylık ortalama sıcaklık ve aylık ortalama toplam yağış verileri ile 30 dakikalık (yaklaşık 1 km) çözünürlüğe sahip model çıktılarına ait küresel aylık ortalama sıcaklık ve aylık ortalama toplam yağış verileri kullanılmıştır. Bu iki farklı veri setine bağlı iki farklı Köppen-Geiger iklim tipleri dağılışı haritası oluşturulmuştur.  Köppen-Geiger iklim sınıflandırmasına göre Türkiye’de 13 farklı Köppen-Geiger iklim bölgesi olduğu ortaya konulmuştur. Bu sınıflandırmaya göre Akdeniz kıyıları “ılıman-kurak-sıcak yaza sahip iklim - Csa” sınıfında çıkarken, Konya Bölümü ve Güneydoğu Anadolu’nun güneyi “kurak-sıcak ve soğuk step iklim- Bsh-k” tipinde, Kuzeydoğu Anadolu’da ve Ağrı Dağı’nda ise ET yani tundra alanlar belirlenmiştir. Daha önceki çalışmalarda düşük çözünürlükte üretilen Türkiye Köppen-Geiger iklim bölgeleri bu çalışmada daha da ayrıntı kazanmıştır.

scholarly journals Time Series Modelling of Monthly average Temperature in Gaborone-Botswana

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 689-710
Author(s):  
Keorapetse Sediakgotla ◽  
Wilford Molefe ◽  
Dahud Kehinde Shangodoyin
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Monthly Average Temperature ◽  
Time Series Modelling
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