Validation and comparison of six risk scores for post acute myocardial infarction infection

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Y.H Liu ◽  
L.T Wang ◽  
Y.N Dai ◽  
L.H Zeng ◽  
H.L Fan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Public Institution ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
Good Discrimination ◽  
Chads2 Score ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Clinical Events ◽  
Grace Score

Abstract Background Various risk scores have been proven to predict outcomes in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). However, few of them were validated and compared the difference of the prediction of infection during hospitalization in such patients. Aim We aimed to validate and compare the discriminatory value of different risk scores for predicting infection. Methods Patients who were diagnosed with STEMI treated with PCI were enrolled from January 2010 to May 2018. The six risk scores included the Age, Serum Creatinine (SCr), or Glomerular Filtration Rate, and Ejection Fraction (ACEF or AGEF) score, Canada Acute Coronary Syndrome Risk Score (CACS score), CHADS2 score, Global Registry for Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score and Mehran score. The primary end point was infection during hospitalization. The secondary endpoint was major adverse clinical events including all cause death, stroke and any bleeding. The prognostic accuracy of the six scores was assessed using the c statistic for discrimination and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test for calibration. Results A total of 2260 eligible patients were enrolled (62.32±12.36 year, 81.3% of males). A significant gradient of risk with respect to infection and in hospital major adverse clinical events (MACE) was observed with increasing all six risk scores. Other than the CHADS2 score (AUC: 0.682; 95% CI, 0.652–0.712), other five risk scores showed the good discrimination for predicting infection, with the GRACE score being the best (AUC: 0.791; 95% CI, 0.765–0.817). In addition, all risk scores showed best calibration for infection, but good calibration for CACS risk score (calibration slope: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.18–1.35) (Figure 1). Furthermore, each score showed a best discrimination for in hospital MACE, with AUCs ranging from 0.761 to 0.786, other than CACS risk score and CHADS2 risk score with AUC of 0.700 and 0.696, respectively. All risk scores showed best calibration for in hospital MACE. Conclusions In patients with STEMI undergoing PCI, these risk scores (ACEF, AGEF, CACS, GRACE and Mehran) showed good discrimination and calibration to predict infection and MACE. The CACS score was recommended for clinical use as its clinical variables were simple and practical. Figure 1 Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): National Science Foundation for Young Scientists of China

A real world analysis of NSTE-ACS in more than 4000 patients: accuracy of GRACE and TIMI scores in mortality prediction

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
J Borges-Rosa ◽  
J Ferreira ◽  
M Oliveira-Santos ◽  
S Monteiro ◽  
F Goncalves ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Real World ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Timi Score ◽  
One Year ◽  
Grace Score

Abstract Introduction The TIMI (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction) and GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) risk scores identify high-risk patients with Non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) who can benefit from an early invasive strategy. Purpose We aimed to compare both scores predictive accuracy for mortality in a real-world cohort of patients presenting with NSTE-ACS. Methods We retrospectively evaluated 4264 patients admitted to our coronary intensive care unit between 2004 and 2017 with a diagnosis of NSTE-ACS. The TIMI and GRACE scores were calculated for each patient, and all-cause mortality was recorded during hospitalization, at one month and one year. To better characterize global troponin release, we defined Total Troponin (TT) as the sum of initial and discharge troponin. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to compare the predictive value of both scores for mortality during hospitalization, at one month and one year. Results Mean patient age was 67.6±12.4 years and 66.4% were male (n=2833). Mean GRACE score was 124.6±35.8 and mean TIMI score was 2.7±1.6. There was a weak correlation between GRACE and TIMI score (r=0.3, p<0.001). In-hospital mortality was 2.8%: the GRACE score showed higher AUC (0.845, 95% CI 0.805–0.804, p<0.001) compared to TIMI (0.581, 95% CI 0.519–0.643, p=0.009) (Figure 1). Mortality at one month was 5.1%: the GRACE score showed higher AUC (0.842, 95% CI 0.814–0.869, p<0.001) compared to TIMI (0.586, 95% CI 0.541–0.630, p<0.001). Mortality at one year was 11.4%: the GRACE score showed higher AUC (0.811, 95% CI 0.789–0.822, p<0.001) compared to TIMI (0.591, 95% CI 0.560–0.622, p<0.001) (Fig. 1). Analyzing Unstable Angina and Non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction separately, the GRACE score also showed higher AUC compared to TIMI. Exploratory analyses revealed a combined indicator (GRACE score + TT) which had higher AUC (0.876, 95% CI 0.844–0.907, p<0.001) compared to GRACE score (0.855, 95% CI 0.823–0.887, p<0.001) for one month mortality and for one year mortality (0.818, 95% CI 0.792–0.844, p<0.001 vs. 0.813, 95% CI 0.788–0.839, p<0.001). Conclusion In patients with NSTE-ACS, GRACE risk score is a better predictor of in-hospital, one month and one-year mortality, compared to TIMI risk score. TT, as a measure of ischemia burden, might improve accuracy of GRACE score in predicting short and long-term mortality. Figure 1 Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Evolution of hospital discharge medication and 6 months outcomes of ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction patients in Portugal over the years

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
J.P De Sousa Bispo ◽  
T.F Mota ◽  
R Fernandes ◽  
P Azevedo ◽  
D Carvalho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Hospital Discharge ◽  
Public Institution ◽  
Categorical Variables ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
St Segment Elevation ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Discharge Medication ◽  
St Segment

Abstract Objectives To assess the evolution of hospital discharge management, 6 months hospitalization and mortality over the years of all patients admitted with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in Portugal. Methods A nationwide electronic prospective registry that included all patients admitted to Portuguese hospitals with a diagnosis of Acute Coronary Syndrome since 2002 until 2018 was used to collect all data relative to patients admitted with a STEMI diagnosis during that time frame. Data on demographic data, clinical status, revascularization strategy, discharge medication and 6 months hospitalization and mortality were obtained. We compared the data and its evolution over the years to assess for trends. For statistical analysis, Qui-square tests were used to assess trends in categorical variables, and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to assess trends in numerical variables. A p-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results During the study, a total of 23807 patients were admitted for STEMI in Portuguese hospitals, 74.3% were male and average age of 63.9±13.6 years. We report a progressive and significant increase the use of primary angioplasty versus fibrinolysis (24.3% to 98.4%, p<0.001), in coronary angioplasties (36.4% to 73.2%, p<0.001), in the use of drug-eluting stents (0% to 70.1%, p<0.001), and a decrease in the patients that underwent surgery (6.8% to 1.3%, p<0.001) and intra-aortic balloon pump (1.8% to 0%, p=0.009), resulting in a decrease in in-hospital mortality from 9.9% to 6.1% (p<0.001). At discharge, we report a progressive increase in the prescription of P2Y12 inhibitors (21.1% to 95.2%, p<0.001), beta-blockers (68.8% to 83.8%, p<0.001), RAAS inhibitors (69.5% to 86.7%, p<0.001) and statins (79.6% to 94.9%, p<0.001), while the prescription of aspirin (94.1% para 94.8%, p=0.428), calcium channel blockers (5.3% to 5.6%, p<0.684) stayed stable, and there was a decrease in the prescription of nitrates (52.9% to 5.8%, p<0.001). Hospital admissions at 6 months consistently and progressively reduced over time (18.6% to 8.5%, p<0.001) as well as mortality (6.7% para 4.3%, p<0.001). Conclusion Post discharge treatment of STEMI patients in Portuguese hospitals has evolved according to guidelines, with higher prescription of medication proven to reduce outcomes, resulting in lower hospitalization rates and mortality. 6 Month Outcomes over the years Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia

Evolution of in-hospital management in ST Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction in Portuguese hospitals over the years

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
J.P De Sousa Bispo ◽  
T.F Mota ◽  
R Fernandes ◽  
P Azevedo ◽  
D Carvalho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Hospital Management ◽  
Public Institution ◽  
Categorical Variables ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
St Segment Elevation ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction ◽  
St Segment ◽  
Complications And Mortality

Abstract Objectives To assess the evolution of in-hospital management of ST Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) over the years in Portuguese hospitals and its impact on in-hospital complications and mortality Methods A nationwide electronic prospective registry that included all patients admitted to Portuguese hospitals with a diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome since 2002 until 2019 was used to collect all data relative to patients admitted with a STEMI diagnosis during that time frame. Data on demographic data, clinical data, revascularization strategy, medication during hospitalization. We compared the data and its evolution over the years to assess for trends. For statistical analysis, Qui-square tests were used to assess tendencies in categorical variables, and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to assess tendencies in numerical variables. A p-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results During the study, a total of 24425 patients were admitted for STEMI in Portuguese hospitals, 74.3% were male and average age of 63.9±13.6 years. We report a progressive increase in patients treated with aspirin, P2Y12 inhibitors (from 22.2% to 97.6% – p<0.001), beta blockers 62.% to 72.4% – p<0.001), ACE inhibitors (68.9% to 78.2% – p<0.001) and statins (72.1% to 88.4% – p<0.001), a progressive decrease in GP 2a3b inhibitors (20.9 to 14.6% – p<0.001), enoxaparin (55.2% to 29.9% – p<0.001), nitrates (82.7% to 16.1% – p<0.001), calcium channel blockers (5.0% to 3.1% – p<0.001) and inotropes (12.0% to 5.6% – p<0.001). There was an increase of the use primary coronary angioplasty (36.4% to 73.2% – p<0.001), and of drug eluting stents (0% to 70.1% – p<0.001) a decrease in the use of fibrinolysis (75.7% to 1.6% – p<0.001), bare metal stents (88.1% to 0.3% – p<0.001) and intra-aortic balloon pump (1.8% to 0% – p=0.009), but not in invasive mechanical ventilation (2.5% to 1.9% – p=0.142). Less patients had moderate to severely impaired left ventricle ejection fraction (28.8% to 14.9% – p<0.001), and there was a significant reduction in almost all in-hospital complications: re-infarction (2.0% to 1.0% – p<0.001); heart failure (36.2% to 9.9% – p<0.001); cardiogenic shock (10.8% to 3.9% – p<0.001); AV block (5.8% to 2.5% – p<0.001); mechanical complications (2.8% to 0.4% – p<0.001); stroke (1.3% to 0.4% – p<0.001); in-hospital mortality (9.9% to 3.8% – p<0.001); as well as length of stay ([4–10] days to [3–6] days – p<0.001). Exceptions were and increase in major bleeding (0.9% to 1.8% – p<0.001) and resuscitated cardiac arrest (3.9% to 4.5%, p=0.001). Conclusion In 17 years, we report a progressive evolution of the in-hospital treatment of STEMI patients in Portuguese hospitals, with a higher prescription of guideline recommended medications, use of invasive reperfusion techniques and last generation stents, resulting in a lower rate of in-hospital complications and mortality. In-hospital outcomes over the years Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): Registo Nacional de Síndromes Coronárias Agudas - Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia

scholarly journals In-hospital mortality in patients with NON-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction in relation to high risk global registry of acute cardiac events score.

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (11) ◽  
pp. 2433-2437
Author(s):  
Ariz Samin ◽  
Syed Hassan Mustafa ◽  
Sajid Khan ◽  
Saamia Arshad ◽  
Noor ul Huda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Outcome Variable ◽  
Cardiac Events ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Global Registry ◽  
Grace Score

Objectives: Presage for early risk stratification is consequential for long term clinical outcomes in patients with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome. Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction risk scores (TIMI) and Global Registry of Acute Cardiac Events (GRACE) have been most extensively investigated risk scores till date for risk stratification in patients admitted with Cardiovascular disease. Study Design: Descriptive Case Series. Setting: Department of Cardiology Ayub Teaching Hospital, Abbottabad. Period: 4th August 2016 to 4th April 2017. Material & Methods: 199 patients diagnosed with NSTEMI were included in the study after obtaining an apprised consent. Risk stratification of each patient was done according to GRACE score. Patients were followed up during their hospital stay and their outcome was recorded on a pre-designed pro forma. The outcome was described as either death or discharge. Results: Mean±SD GRACE score was 156.12±20.65. The overall mortality in the study population was 11.6% (n=23). When the outcome variable was stratified according to age, gender, diabetes mellitus, obesity and hypertension, results were found in case of hypertension (p< 0.05), and statistically no significant in the case of other variables. Conclusion: A high risk GRACE score is associated with increased in-hospital mortality in patients with NSTEMI.

Modified HEART score, utilising a single high-sensitive troponin sample, allows early, safe discharge of suspected acute coronary syndrome: a prospective multicentre cohort study of 3016 patients

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Khand ◽  
M Obeidat ◽  
M Campbell ◽  
K Batouskaya ◽  
L Mullen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Limit Of Detection ◽  
Troponin T ◽  
Public Institution ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
Catchment Population ◽  
Heart Score ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
High Sensitive Troponin

Abstract Background Combining HSTnT (high sensitive troponin T) values at low levels with composite risk scores may improve early safe, discharge in suspected acute coronary syndromes (ACS). We tested this hypothesis by a prospective study of 3016 consecutive patients with suspected ACS in 2 large hospitals. Methods Consecutive chest pain (CP) presentations with HSTnT sampled and ECG undertaken at presentation were prospectively defined in 2 time periods (2011-12, n=1642 [derivation] 2018, n=1376 [validation]). The HstnT input was modified: dichotomous HSTnT input was lowered to &lt;5 (limit of detection, LOD) or ≥5ng/l (mod TIMI and GRACE), HEART score was re-calibrated (&lt;5 = 0 [LOD], ≥5–14 = 1, &gt;14 = 2 [99th percentile]). All biomarker positive CP index and re-admissions to any regional hospital (catchment population 2.6 million) were independently adjudicated for MI by 2 experienced physicians. Primary outcome was MACE (adjudicated type 1 MI, unplanned coronary revascularisation and all cause death) at 6 weeks. Results In the 2 cohorts demographic factors were similar: median age 59 and 56, male 52% and 52%, previous MI 20% and 14% for 2011-12 and 2018 respectively. At 6 weeks 180 (11%) and 75 (5.4%) suffered type 1 MI and 211 (12.9%) and 92 (6.7%) patients suffered MACE in the 2011-12 and 2018 cohorts respectively. Only Mod HEART ≤3 and undetectable HSTnT, with a nonischaemic ECG, achieved prespecified NPV of &gt;99.5% in both derivation and validation cohorts (table). However Modified HEART ≤3 score could discharge approximately 12% more patients as compared to undetectable HSTnT strategy. Conclusion Modified HEART score ≤3, with the use of a single HSTnT, appears the optimum early discharge strategy for suspected ACS Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): Liverpool university Hospitals, North-West Educational Cardiac Group

Acute coronary syndromes in nonagenarians: do we have reliable risk scores?

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
P Vidal ◽  
P.L Cepas Guillen ◽  
G Caldentey ◽  
E Martinez Gomez ◽  
J Borrego-Rodriguez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Tertiary Care ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
St Segment Elevation ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Therapeutic Decisions ◽  
Comorbidity Scores ◽  
Potential Applicability ◽  
Grace Score

Abstract Introduction GRACE score is strongly validated to determine the probability of death in acute coronary syndrome (ACS), nevertheless its usefulness in nonagenarians, a population with frequently associated comorbidities, is less stablished. BARTHEL and CHARLSON scores might be useful tools to predict outcomes in this population. Objective The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential applicability of GRACE score and two comorbidity scores (CHARLSON and BARTHEL) to estimate prognosis in nonagenarians with ACS. Material and methods We retrospectively included all consecutive patients equal to or older than 90 years old admitted with non-ST (NSTEMI) or ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in four tertiary care centers between 2005 and 2018. Patients with type 2 myocardial infarction were excluded. We collected patients' baseline characteristics and procedural data. In-hospital and at 1-year follow-up all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were assessed. Risk score accuracy was evaluated by area under the curve ROC (AUC). Results A total of 444 patients (mean age 92.6±2.4 years, 60% females) were analyzed. Approximately half of them (n=241, 54%) with STEMI and the remainder (n=203, 46%) with NSTEMI. Global GRACE-AUC for in-hospital and 1-year all-cause mortality were moderate (0.64; 95% CI: 0.59–0.69 and 0.62; 95% CI: 0.57–0.67, respectively). Only in the NSTEMI group, the GRACE-AUC was better to predict in-hospital mortality, 0.70 (95% CI: 0.63–0.77). Neither CHARLSON nor BARTHEL showed better predictive results than GRACE score (AUC ≤0.60). Conclusion GRACE score has moderate accuracy to estimate mortality in nonagenarian patients with ACS. BARTHEL and CHARLSON scores do not improve the predictive value of GRACE score. An individualized approach is required to make therapeutic decisions in this special population. Figure 1. ROC-GRACE curves Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

scholarly journals Validation and Comparison of Six Risk Scores for Infection in Patients With ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanhui Liu ◽  
Litao Wang ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Lihuan Zeng ◽  
Hualin Fan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Percutaneous Coronary Intervention ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Good Discrimination ◽  
St Segment Elevation ◽  
Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction ◽  
St Segment ◽  
Percutaneous Coronary

Aims: Very few of the risk scores to predict infection in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) have been validated, and reports on their differences. We aimed to validate and compare the discriminatory value of different risk scores for infection.Methods: A total of 2,260 eligible patients with STEMI undergoing PCI from January 2010 to May 2018 were enrolled. Six risk scores were investigated: age, serum creatinine, or glomerular filtration rate, and ejection fraction (ACEF or AGEF) score; Canada Acute Coronary Syndrome (CACS) risk score; CHADS2 score; Global Registry for Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score; and Mehran score conceived for contrast induced nephropathy. The primary endpoint was infection during hospitalization.Results: Except CHADS2 score (AUC, 0.682; 95%CI, 0.652–0.712), the other risk scores showed good discrimination for predicting infection. All risk scores but CACS risk score (calibration slope, 0.77; 95%CI, 0.18–1.35) showed best calibration for infection. The risks scores also showed good discrimination for in-hospital major adverse clinical events (MACE) (AUC range, 0.700–0.786), except for CHADS2 score. All six risk scores showed best calibration for in-hospital MACE. Subgroup analysis demonstrated similar results.Conclusions: The ACEF, AGEF, CACS, GRACE, and Mehran scores showed a good discrimination and calibration for predicting infection and MACE.

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