PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF GRACE VERSUS TIMI SCORE FOR IN-HOSPITAL OUTCOMES AFTER NON-ST-ELEVATION ACUTE CORONARY SYNDROME

Objectives: To compare the predictive value of TIMI and GRACE score for predicting in-hospital outcomes after non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). Methodology: This study included prospectively recruited cohort of patients presented to a tertiary care cardiac center of Karachi, Pakistan who were diagnosed with NSTE-ACS. GRACE and TIMI score were obtained and in-hospital mortality was recorded. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis was performed and area under the curve (AUC) was obtained as indicative of predictive value for both scores. Results: A total of 300 patients were included, out of which 76.7%(230) were male and mean age was 58.04±10.71 years. Risk profile comprises of 84.3%(253) hypertensive, 42.0%(126) diabetic, 27.3%(82) smokers, 9.0%(27) obese, 15.3%(46) dyslipidemic, and 31%(93) with sedentary lifestyle. Mean GRACE and TIMI score were 120.19±33.17 and 3.18±0.85 respectively. In-hospital mortality rate was 5.3%(16). AUC for the GRACE score was 0.851 [0.767 - 0.934] with the optimal cut-off value of 150 with sensitivity of 68.8% and specificity of 84.9%. The AUC for the TIMI score was 0.781[0.671 - 0.891] with the optimal cut-off value of 4 with sensitivity of 75.0% and specificity of 67.6%. Conclusion: The GRACE score has high discriminating strength for predicting in-hospital mortality after NSTE-ACS. GRACE score should be used as risk stratification modality in clinical decision making for the management of NSTE-ACS.

Electrocardiography Score for Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction in Non-ST Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome

Background: Few studies have characterized electrocardiography (ECG) patterns correlated with left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction in patients with non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS).Objectives: This study aims to develop ECG pattern-derived scores to predict LV systolic dysfunction in NSTE-ACS patients.Methods: A total of 466 patients with NSTE-ACS were retrospectively enrolled. LV ejection fraction (LVEF) was assessed by echocardiography within 72 h after the first triage ECG acquisition; there was no coronary intervention in between. ECG score was developed to predict LVEF < 40%. Performance of LVEF, the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE), Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and ECG scores to predict 24-month all-cause mortality were analyzed. Subgroups with varying LVEF, GRACE and TIMI scores were stratified by ECG score to identify patients at high risk of mortality.Results: LVEF < 40% was present in 20% of patients. We developed the PQRST score by multivariate logistic regression, including poor R wave progression, QRS duration > 110 ms, heart rate > 100 beats per min, and ST-segment depression ≥ 1 mm in ≥ 2 contiguous leads, ranging from 0 to 6.5. The score had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.824 in the derivation cohort and 0.899 in the validation cohort for discriminating LVEF < 40%. A PQRST score ≥ 3 could stratify high-risk patients with LVEF ≥ 40%, GRACE score > 140, or TIMI score ≥ 3 regarding 24-month all-cause mortality.Conclusions: The PQRST score could predict LVEF < 40% in NSTE-ACS patients and identify patients at high risk of mortality in the subgroups of patients with LVEF ≥ 40%, GRACE score > 140 or TIMI score ≥ 3.

Nutritional Risk Index Improves the GRACE Score Prediction of Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Background: Malnutrition has been shown to be associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes in many patient populations.Aims: To investigate the prognostic significance of malnutrition as defined by nutritional risk index (NRI) in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and whether NRI could improve the GRACE score based prognostic models.Methods: This study applied NRI among 1,718 patients with ACS undergoing PCI. Patients were divided into three nutritional risk groups according to their baseline NRI: no nutritional risk (NRI ≥ 100), mild nutritional risk (97.5 ≤ NRI <100), and moderate-to-severe nutritional risk (NRI <97.5). The primary endpoint was the composite of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), including all-cause death, non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or unplanned repeat revascularization.Results: During a median follow-up of 927 days, 354 patients developed MACE. In the overall population, compared with normal nutritional status, malnutrition was associated with increased risk for MACE [adjusted HR for mild and moderate-to-severe nutritional risk, respectively: 1.368 (95%CI 1.004–1.871) and 1.473 (95%CI 1.064–2.041)], and NRI significantly improved the predictive ability of the GRACE score for MACE (cNRI: 0.070, P = 0.010; IDI: 0.005, P < 0.001). In the diabetes subgroup, malnutrition was associated with nearly 2-fold high adjusted risk of MACE, and the GRACE score combined with NRI appeared to have better predictive ability than that in the overall population.Conclusion: Malnutrition as defined by NRI was independently associated with MACE in ACS patients who underwent PCI, especially in individuals with diabetes, and improved the predictive ability of the GRACE score based prognostic models.

Incremental predictive value of adding the CHA2DS2-VASc score to the GRACE score for in-hospital mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

Objective The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score is recommended for risk stratification for patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) by clinical guidelines. Data about comorbidities were not incorporated in the GRACE score. This study aimed to evaluate the incremental predictive value of adding the CHA2DS2-VASc score to the GRACE score for in-hospital mortality in patients with STEMI. Methods 7476 patients with STEMI were recruited and divided into five groups according to the CHA2DS2-VASc score (1, 2, 3, 4 and ≥5 points) at admission. The primary outcome was defined as in-hospital mortality, while the secondary outcomes were recurrent MI, stroke and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) during hospitalization. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were performed to evaluate the association between the CHA2DS2-VASc score and outcomes. Incremental predictive performance of adding the CHA2DS2-VASc score to the GRACE score were evaluated through analysis of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Results With the increase of CHA2DS2-VASc score, patients with STEMI tended to have more comorbidities, receive less evidence-based treatments and carry worse in-hospital outcomes. Multivariate logistic regressions demonstrated that the CHA2DS2-VASc score was an independent predictor for in-hospital mortality [OR (95% CI): 1.320 (1.238–1.407), p<0.001], recurrent myocardial infarction [OR (95% CI): 1.233 (1.086–1.401), p=0.001], stroke [OR (95% CI): 1.433 (1.207–1.702), p<0.001] and MACE [OR (95% CI): 1.146 (1.088–1.207), p<0.001]. The c statistic value of combining the GRACE score with the CHA2DS2-VASc score was significantly higher than that of the GRACE score alone in predicting in-hospital mortality (0.784, 95% CI: 0.774–0.793 vs. 0.769, 95% CI: 0.760–0.779, z=4.180, p<0.001). The addition of the CHA2DS2-VASc score to the GRACE score resulted in significantly improved predictive performance for in-hospital mortality, with a NRI of 0.356 (95% CI: 0.280–0.432, p<0.001) and a IDI of 0.013 (95% CI: 0.009–0.018, p<0.001). Conclusion The CHA2DS2-VASc score was an independent predictor of in-hospital outcomes in patients with STEMI. Compared to the GRACE score alone, the addition of the CHA2DS2-VASc score to the GRACE score improved the predictive performance for in-hospital mortality in patients STEMI. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Receiver operating characteristic curve

The value of GRACE risk score for predicting mortality in heart failure patients admitted with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome

Background Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in heart failure (HF) patients has not been well studied yet. Purpose The main aims of this study were to compare the characteristics and outcomes of Non-ST elevation ACS (NSTACS) in patients with and without prior HF, and to assess the GRACE risk score performance for risk stratification in both groups. Methods All consecutive patients (n=5661) admitted due to a NSTACS from November'2003 to November'2017 in two Spanish hospitals were retrospectively analysed. Patients were divided according to prior HF. As GRACE score predicts mortality in 6 months, logistic regression models were used to predict mortality in both groups. The different aspects of model performance were studied, including calibration and discrimination. Results Killip class, GRACE and CRUSADE scores were higher in HF-patients compared to patients without prior HF. Also, HF-patients had more complications (major bleeding, worsening HF, acute kidney injury) and higher mortality. Discrimination capacity of GRACE score to predict mortality at 6 months was slightly higher in non-HF patients (AUC 83.9% [81.6–86.2]) than in HF-patients [AUC 77.0% [70.1–83.8]) (Figure 1). The risk score calibration was acceptable for both groups [Brier scores were 0.139 (c-AUC 0,77) for HF-patients, and 0.046 (c-AUC 0.839) for non-HF patients]. Finally, HF-patients with lower GRACE scores had a higher predicted mortality than non-HF patients (Table 1). Conclusions We showed the potential utility of GRACE risk score in HF-patients admitted with NSTACS, expanding the indication of GRACE risk score for HF-patients as well. In fact, GRACE risk score not only keeps its accuracy, but it is even more robust in HF-patients than in non-HF patients. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Figure 1 Table 1

Prognostic value of PCSK9 Levels in Non-ST elevation myocardial infarction patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

Background The role of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) in predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in Non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) patients is still an open question and the PCSK9 concentration of clinical usefulness remains unknown in guiding treatment. Purpose To explore the role of PCSK9 in predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in Non-ST elevation myocardial infarction patients. Methods 272 patients with NSTEMI were included in our study, all patients received PCI therapy after admission. Patients were followed up for 1 year and MACEs were recored. Their baseline plasma PCSK9 levels were determined by ELISA. Patients were divided into high, medium and low PCSK9 groups and the associations of PCSK9 with other biomarkers and MACEs were evaluated. Results The results showed that PCSK9 levels was related to levels of lipoproteins, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (r=0.162, P=0.008), platelet volume distribution width (r=0.299, P<0.001) and D-dimer (r=0.285, P<0.001). And the concentrations of PCSK9 was greater higher in people with MACEs (137.2ng/ml vs 243.6ng/ml) (Fig. 1A). The Kaplan-Meier curves showed patients with high PCSK9 level had lower event-free survival rate (Fig. 1B). Survival analysis indicated high level of PCSK9 predicted MACEs independently after adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and GRACE score (HR=2.646, 95CI%: 1.047–6.686, P=0.027) (Fig. 1C, Fig. 2). Subgroup analysis demonstrated the prognostic value of high PCSK9 level was greater for patients classified by the GRACE score as high risk (Fig. 1D). Conclusions In a NSTEMI setting, the concentration of PCSK9 is associated with hypercoagulability and hyper-inflammation. High levels of PCSK9 independently predict future MACEs in NSTEMI patients, particularly those classified by the GRACE score as high risk. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

THE PREDICTIVE UTILITY OF GRACE SCORE FOR OBSTRUCTIVE CORONARY ARTERY DISEASE IN PATIENTS WITH NON ST ELEVATION MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION

Objectives: The objective of this study was to determine the predictive value of GRACE score for predicting obstructive coronary artery disease in patients with non ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Methodology: This cross-sectional study was conducted at the largest public sector cardiac care center of the Pakistan between January 2020 and June 2020. In this study, we included adult patients diagnosed with NSTEMI and correlation of GRACE score was assessed with angiographic finding of obstructive CAD defined as ≥50% stenosis in the left main or ≥70% stenosis in other coronary arteries. Results: A total of 227 patients were included in this study, out of whom 72.2% (164) were male patients and mean age was 55.77 ± 9.15 years. Mean GRACE score was found to be 95.89 ± 21.15. On coronary angiography obstructive CAD was present in 84.6% (192) of the patients. Area under the cure for predicting obstructive CAD was 0.669 [0.552 to 0.785]. The optimal cutoff value of GRACE score was ≥ 84 with sensitivity of 79.7% [73.3% to 85.1%] and specificity of 57.1% [39.3% to 73.7%]. GRACE score of ≥ 84 was found to be an independent predictor of obstructive CAD with odds ratio of 4.33 [1.61 - 11.64; p=0.004] adjusted for gender, age, hypertension, diabetes, family history of CAD, and smoking. Conclusion: GRACE score has a moderate predictive value in predicting obstructive CAD in patients with NSTEMI. The optimal cutoff value of 84 is an independent predictor with good sensitivity but moderate specificity in predicting obstructive CAD.

Importance of Risk Assessment in Timing of Invasive Coronary Evaluation and Treatment of Patients With Non–ST‐Segment–Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome: Insights From the VERDICT Trial

Background The optimal timing of invasive examination and treatment of high‐risk patients with non–ST‐segment–elevation acute coronary syndrome has not been established. We investigated the efficacy of early invasive coronary angiography compared with standard‐care invasive coronary angiography on the risk of all‐cause mortality according to the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) risk score in a predefined subgroup analysis of the VERDICT (Very Early Versus Deferred Invasive Evaluation Using Computerized Tomography) trial. Methods and Results Patients with clinical suspicion of non–ST‐segment–elevation acute coronary syndrome with ECG changes indicating new ischemia and/or elevated troponin, in whom invasive coronary angiography was clinically indicated and deemed logistically feasible within 12 hours, were eligible for inclusion. Patients were randomized 1:1 to an early (≤12 hours) or standard (48–72 hours) invasive strategy. The primary outcome of the present study was all‐cause mortality. Of 2147 patients randomized in the VERDICT trial, 2092 patients had an available GRACE risk score. Of these, 1021 (48.8%) patients had a GRACE score >140. During a median follow‐up of 4.1 years, 192 (18.8%) and 54 (5.0%) patients died in the high and low GRACE score groups, respectively. The risk of death with the early invasive strategy was increased in patients with a GRACE score ≤140 (hazard ratio [HR], 2.04 [95% CI, 1.16–3.59]), whereas there was a trend toward a decreased risk of death with the early invasive strategy in patients with a GRACE score >140 (HR, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.63–1.10]) ( P interaction =0.006). Conclusions In patients with non–ST‐segment–elevation acute coronary syndrome, we found a significant interaction between timing of invasive coronary angiography and GRACE score on the risk of death. Randomized clinical trials are warranted to establish the efficacy and safety among high‐risk and low‐risk patients with non–ST‐segment–elevation acute coronary syndrome. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT02061891.