Abstract
Aims
Rheumatic Heart Disease (RHD) is a major contributor to cardiac morbidity and mortality globally. We aimed to estimate the probability and predictors of progressing to non-fatal cardiovascular complications and death in young Australians after first RHD diagnosis.
Methods and Results
This retrospective cohort study used linked RHD register, hospital and death data from five Australian states and territories (covering 70% of the whole population and 86% of the Indigenous population). Progression from uncomplicated RHD to all-cause death and non-fatal cardiovascular complications (surgical intervention, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, infective endocarditis, stroke) was estimated for people aged <35years with first-ever RHD diagnosis between 2010 and 2018, identified from register and hospital data.
The study cohort comprised 1718 initially uncomplicated RHD cases (84.6% Indigenous; 10.9% migrant; 63.2% women; 40.3% aged 5-14-years; 76.4% non-metropolitan). The composite outcome of death/cardiovascular complication was experienced by 23.3% (95% CI: 19.5-26.9) within 8 years. Older age and metropolitan residence were independent positive predictors of the composite outcome; history of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) was a negative predictor. Population group (Indigenous/migrant/other Australian) and sex were not predictive of outcome after multivariable-adjustment.
Conclusion
This study provides the most definitive and contemporary estimates of progression to major cardiovascular complication or death in young Australians with RHD. Despite access to the publically-funded universal Australian healthcare system, one-fifth of initially uncomplicated RHD cases will experience one of the major complications of RHD within 8 years supporting the need for programs to eradicate RHD.