A Data Mining-based Cross-Industry Process for Predicting Major Bleeding in Mechanical Circulatory Support
Abstract Background Over a third of patients, treated with mechanical circulatory support (MCS) for end-stage heart failure, experience major bleeding. Currently, the prediction of a major bleeding in the near future is difficult because of many contributing factors. Objectives Predictive analytics using data mining could help calculating the risk of bleeding, however its application is generally reserved for experienced researchers on this subject. We propose an easy applicable data mining tool to predict major bleeding in MCS patients. Methods All data of electronic health records of MCS patients in the University Medical Centre Utrecht were included. Based on the cross-industry standard process for data mining (CRISP-DM) methodology, an application named Auto-Crisp was developed. Auto-Crisp was used to evaluate the predictive models for a major bleeding in the next 3, 7 and 30 days after the first 30 days postoperatively following MCS implantation. The performance of the predictive models are investigated by the area under the curve (AUC) evaluation measure. Results In 25.6% of 273 patients, a total of 142 major bleedings occurred during a median follow-up period of 542 (IQR 205–1044) days. The best predictive models assessed by Auto-Crisp had AUC values of 0.792, 0.788, and 0.776 for bleedings in the next 3, 7, and 30 days, respectively. Conclusion The Auto-Crisp-based predictive model created in this study had an acceptable performance to predict major bleeding in MCS patients in the near future. However, further validation of the application is needed to evaluate Auto-Crisp in other research projects.