Climate change, weather shocks, and price convergence in pre-industrial Germany

Author(s):  
Hakon Albers ◽  
Ulrich Pfister

Abstract Market integration of European inland regions such as Germany caught up on North-Western Europe from the seventeenth century onwards. As many studies rely on grain prices and the pre-industrial era was a period of climate change, a relevant question is in how far changing weather shocks impact on the measurement of convergence trends. We create a new high-quality grain price dataset and apply four methodologies to quantify market integration robust to weather shocks and climate change. Population growth and river transport turn out as plausible explanations for price convergence rather than climate change.

Author(s):  
Eduard Koster ◽  
Tim Favier

Peatlands are fascinating wetland ecosystems. They provide a habitat for a wide range of highly adapted plant and animal species. In addition to the floristic and ornithological richness, peatlands have been recognized for many other values. For instance, drained peatland soils often have good agricultural properties, and peat has been and still is in some places extensively used as fuel. In coastal wetlands peat has even been used for salt extraction. Furthermore, peat is an interesting material for science, as it contains information on the palaeoecological environment, climate change, carbon history, and archaeology. In north-western Europe, peatlands were once quite extensive, covering tens of thousands of square kilometres. However, most of them have been strongly exploited by humans during past centuries. Many peatlands have been cultivated for agriculture and forestry, or have been exploited by commercial or domestic peat extraction for fuel. As a result, only a very small part of north-western Europe’s peatlands remains today in a more or less natural state. This chapter focuses on the peat deposits and peatlands in north-western Europe that have formed since the Late Glacial (c.13 ka BP). First, the most common concepts in peatland terminology are explained, and the distribution of peatlands is described. Next, processes of peat formation and the relationship between peatforming processes and climate, hydrology, vegetation, and other factors are discussed. In the following section, frequently used classification methods are presented. A historical overview of the cultivation and exploitation of peatlands is given and the present land use and characteristics of peatland soils are discussed. The following section deals with methods of conservation and rehabilitation of the remaining mires. The importance of peatlands as palaeoecological archives is examplified. Finally, the role of peatlands as a source and/or sink of CO2 and the relations with climate change are briefly explained. Peat is the unconsolidated material that predominantly consists of slightly decomposed or undecomposed organic material in which the original cellular and tissue structures can often be identified. Peat forms in lakes and mires under waterlogged, anaerobic conditions.


2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 1745-1756 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bauwens ◽  
C. Sohier ◽  
A. Degré

Abstract. The Meuse is an important rain-fed river in North-Western Europe. Nine million people live in its catchment, split over five countries. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature characteristics due to climate change would have a significant impact on the Meuse River and its tributaries. In this study, we focused on the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of two sub-catchments of the Meuse in Belgium, the Lesse and the Vesdre, placing the emphasis on the water-soil-plant continuum in order to highlight the effects of climate change on plant growth, and water uptake on the hydrology of two sub-catchments. These effects were studied using two climate scenarios and a physically based distributed model, which reflects the water-soil-plant continuum. Our results show that the vegetation will evapotranspirate between 10 and 17 % less at the end of the century because of water scarcity in summer, even if the root development is better under climate change conditions. In the low scenario, the mean minimal 7 days discharge value could decrease between 19 and 24 % for a two year return period, and between 20 and 35 % for a fifty year return period. It will lead to rare but severe drought in rivers, with potentially huge consequences on water quality.


2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 7695-7724
Author(s):  
A. Bauwens ◽  
C. Sohier ◽  
A. Degré

Abstract. The Meuse is an important rain-fed river in North-Western Europe. Nine millions of people live in its catchment splited over five countries. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature characteristics due to climate change would have significant impact on the Meuse River and its tributaries. In this study, we focus on two tributaries of the Meuse in Belgium the Lesse and the Vesdre catchments. The physically based, distributed model EPICGrid, a model which reflects water-soil-plant continuum, is driven by four sets of meteorological information. Two time slices (2020–2050 and 2070–2100) and two scenarios (wet and dry) were studied. The meteorological scenarios are produced by the CCI-HYDR Perturbation Tool, a tool specially designed for the Belgian climate and taking into account a broad range of models. Water balance, high-flows and low-flows are calculated. It highlights that towards the end of the century, plants may suffer from water shortage and excess. This may lead to a decrease in evapotranspiration and clear changes in water balances. The seasoning contrast in river discharge may be strongly accentuated.


2012 ◽  
Vol 29 (10) ◽  
pp. 1593-1604 ◽  
Author(s):  
H.J. van der Fels-Klerx ◽  
J.E. Olesen ◽  
M.S. Madsen ◽  
P.W. Goedhart

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-33
Author(s):  
Giovanni Federico ◽  
Max-Stephan Schulze ◽  
Oliver Volckart

This paper examines price convergence and changes in the efficiency of wheat markets, covering the period from the mid-fourteenth to the early twentieth century and most of Europe. The analysis is based on a new data set of prices from almost 600 markets. Unlike previous research, we find that convergence was a predominantly pre-modern phenomenon. It started in the late fifteenth century, advanced rapidly until the beginning of the seventeenth century when it temporarily stalled, resumed after the Thirty Years’ War, and accelerated after the Napoleonic Wars in response to trade liberalization. From the late 1840s, convergence petered out and turned into divergence after 1875 as policy decisions dominated technological change. Our results point to the ‘Little Divergence’ between North-Western Europe and the rest of the continent as starting about 1600. Long-term improvements in market efficiency began in the early sixteenth century, with advances over time being as uneven as in price convergence. We trace this to differential institutional change and the non-synchronous spread of modern media and systems of information transmission that affected the ability of merchants to react to news.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Batelaan ◽  
Karin van der Wiel ◽  
Niko Wanders

<p>The summer of 2018 in North-Western Europe was exceptionally warm and dry, which negatively impacted many sectors. The drought of 2018 was followed by the dry summer of 2019 and the dry spring of 2020. Such multi-year droughts bring unique challenges to the agricultural sector, water authorities and society, and require different adaptation strategies compared to ‘normal’ single-year droughts. The succession of these dry years raises a question: is it pure coincidence that North-Western Europe experienced such a multi-year drought, or are there physical processes that cause multi-year droughts? Furthermore, in the present era it is obvious to ask whether anthropogenic climate change will amplify multi-year droughts in the region.</p><p>We aim to find drivers of multi-year droughts by using <em>ERA5 reanalysis</em> data and  state-of-the-art <em>Large Ensemble simulations</em> from seven climate models. We select multi-year droughts in these datasets based on the <em>Standardised Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index</em> and compare drought characteristics in the 1991-2020 reference period with multi-year droughts towards the end of the century. The models show a strong increase in multi-year drought risk from present-day to the end of the century. The frequency of multi-year droughts near doubles and the median duration of selected drought events increases from 16 months to 50 months. Model differences are substantial, mostly due to differences in temperature trends, but all models agree on the increase in multi-year drought risk. Internal variability is large, indicating a large ensemble approach is indeed required to study this problem.</p><p>Next we discuss geophysical drivers of multi-year droughts. Slow-varying ocean processes (through sea surface temperatures) and land processes (through soil moisture) are investigated as potential sources of meteorological conditions that lead to multi-year droughts. We consider the full Earth system, including ocean-land-atmosphere feedbacks, as potential forcing for these events. Summarizing, we will show that anthropogenic warming has potentially large impacts on the frequency, duration and therewith societal risk of multi-year droughts, warranting detailed studies of this topic.</p>


2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 359
Author(s):  
Niamh Roche ◽  
Steve Langton ◽  
Tina Aughney ◽  
Deirdre Lynn ◽  
Ferdia Marnell

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