A combination of species distribution and ocean-biogeochemical models suggests that climate change overrides eutrophication as the driver of future distributions of a key benthic crustacean in the estuarine ecosystem of the Baltic Sea

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (6) ◽  
pp. 2089-2105
Author(s):  
Mayya Gogina ◽  
Michael L Zettler ◽  
Irene Wåhlström ◽  
Helén Andersson ◽  
Hagen Radtke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Nutrient Loads ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Estuarine Ecosystem ◽  
Biogeochemical Models ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract Species in the brackish and estuarine ecosystems will experience multiple changes in hydrographic variables due to ongoing climate change and nutrient loads. Here, we investigate how a glacial relict species (Saduria entomon), having relatively cold, low salinity biogeographic origin, could be affected by the combined scenarios of climate change and eutrophication. It is an important prey for higher trophic-level species such as cod, and a predator of other benthic animals. We constructed habitat distribution models based occurrence and density of this species across the entire Baltic and estimated the relative importance of different driving variables. We then used two regional coupled ocean-biogeochemical models to investigate the combined impacts of two future climate change and nutrient loads scenarios on its spatial distribution in 2070–2100. According to the scenarios, the Baltic Sea will become warmer and fresher. Our results show that expected changes in salinity and temperature outrank those due to two nutrient-load scenarios (Baltic Sea Action Plan and business as usual) in their effect on S. entomon distribution. The results are relatively similar when using different models with the same scenarios, thereby increasing the confidence of projections. Overall, our models predict a net increase (and local declines) of suitable habitat area, total abundance and biomass for this species, which is probably facilitated by strong osmoregulation ability and tolerance to temperature changes. We emphasize the necessity of considering multiple hydrographic variables when estimating climate change impacts on species living in brackish and estuarine systems.

scholarly journals Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea

AMBIO ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (11) ◽  
pp. 1325-1336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alena Bartosova ◽  
René Capell ◽  
Jørgen E. Olesen ◽  
Mohamed Jabloun ◽  
Jens Christian Refsgaard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nutrient Loads ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Nitrogen And Phosphorus ◽  
Socioeconomic Drivers ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.

Past, current, and future freshwater inflows to the Baltic Sea under changing climate and socioeconomics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alena Bartosova ◽  
René Capell ◽  
Jørgen E. Olesen ◽  
Berit Arheimer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Nutrient Loads ◽  
Socioeconomic Conditions ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Nitrogen Loads ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Freshwater Inflows

<p>The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea. These freshwater inflows vary in magnitude from year to year as well as within each year due to e.g. natural variability, weather patterns, and seasonal human activities. Nutrient transport models are important tools for assessments of macro-nutrient fluxes (nitrogen, phosphorus) and for evaluating the connection between pollution sources and the assessed water body. While understanding of current status is important, impacts from changing climate and socio-economics on freshwater inflows to the Baltic Sea also need to be taken into account when planning management practices and mitigation measures.</p><p>Continental to global scale catchment-based hydrological models have emerged in recent years as tools e.g. for flood forecasting, large-scale climate impact analyses, and estimation of time-dynamic water fluxes into sea basins. Here, we present results from the pan-European rainfall-runoff and nutrient transfer model E-HYPE, developed as a multi-purpose tool for large-scale hydrological analyses. We compared current freshwater inflows from land with those from dynamic modelling with E-HYPE under various climate and socioeconomic conditions. The socioeconomic conditions (land use, agricultural practices, population changes, dietary changes, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater technologies) were evaluated for 3 additional time horizons: 2050s using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, 1900s using historical data, and a reference period using a synthetic “no human impact” scenario. An ensemble of 4 climate models that preserves the range of projected changes in precipitation and temperature from a larger ensemble was selected for analysis of climate impacts in 2050s.  </p><p>We show that while climate change affects nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, these impacts can be overshadowed by the impacts of changing socioeconomic factors. Historical nitrogen loads were estimated as 43% and 33% of the current loads for the 1900s and the “no human impact” scenarios, respectively. Average nitrogen loads are projected to increase by 4-10% (8% on average) as a response to climate change by 2050s. Purely mitigation measures that did not address the magnitude of the nutrient sources reduced the total nitrogen load by <5%, with local efficiencies being reduced through retention processes. However, changes in the socioeconomic drivers led to significant changes in the future loads with the range of impacts spanning 30% of the current load depending on the socioeconomic pathway to be followed. This means that policy decisions have by far the largest impact when managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.</p><p>Bartosova, A., Capell, R., Olesen, J.E. et al. (2019). Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Ambio 48, 1325–1336 doi:10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5</p>

Climate change and recovery from eutrophication reduce benthic fauna and carbon processing in a coastal sea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva Ehrnsten ◽  
Alf Norkko ◽  
Bärbel Müller-Karulis ◽  
Erik Gustafsson ◽  
Bo Gustafsson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Coastal Ecosystems ◽  
Benthic Macrofauna ◽  
Combined Effects ◽  
Nutrient Loads ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Carbon Processing

<p>Nutrient loading and climate change affect coastal ecosystems worldwide. Unravelling the combined effects of these pressures on benthic macrofauna is essential for understanding the future functioning of coastal ecosystems, as it is an important component linking the benthic and pelagic realms. In this study, we extended an existing model of benthic macrofauna coupled with the physical-biogeochemical BALTSEM model of the Baltic Sea to study the combined effects of changing nutrient loads and climate on biomass and metabolism of benthic macrofauna historically and in scenarios for the future. Based on a statistical comparison with a large validation dataset of measured biomasses, the model showed good or reasonable performance across the different basins and depth strata in the model area. In scenarios with decreasing nutrient loads according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan, but also with continued recent loads (mean loads 2012-2014), overall macrofaunal biomass and carbon processing were projected to decrease significantly by the end of the century despite improved oxygen conditions at the seafloor. Climate change led to intensified pelagic recycling of primary production and reduced export of particulate organic carbon to the seafloor with negative effects on macrofaunal biomass. In the high nutrient load scenario, representing the highest recorded historical loads, climate change counteracted the effects of increased productivity leading to a hyperbolic response: biomass and carbon processing increased up to mid-21<sup>st</sup> century but then decreased, giving almost no net change by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century compared to present. The study shows that benthic responses to environmental change are nonlinear and partly decoupled from pelagic responses and indicates that benthic-pelagic coupling might be weaker in a warmer and less eutrophic sea.</p>

scholarly journals Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea Region until 2100

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ole B. Christensen ◽  
Erik Kjellström ◽  
Christian Dieterich ◽  
Matthias Gröger ◽  
H. E. Markus Meier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Baltic Sea Region ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. The Baltic Sea Region is very sensitive to climate change; it is a region with spatially varying climate and diverse ecosystems, but also under pressure due to high population in large parts of the area. Climate change impacts could easily exacerbate other anthropogenic stressors such as biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea considerably. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. In this review paper, we will concentrate on a presentation of recent climate projections from both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate models. The recent regional climate model projections strengthen the picture from previous assessments. This includes a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the southern half during summer. Consequently, the new results lend more credibility to estimates of uncertainties and robust features of future climate change. Furthermore, the larger number of scenarios gives opportunities to better address impacts of mitigation measures. The coupled atmosphere-ocean model locally modifies the climate change signal relative to that in the stand-alone atmosphere regional climate model. Differences are largest in areas where the coupled system arrives at different sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice conditions.

scholarly journals Future Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region and Environmental Impacts

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jouni Räisänen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Environmental Impacts ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Baltic Sea Region ◽  
The Baltic

The warming of the global climate is expected to continue in the 21st century, although the magnitude of change depends on future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the sensitivity of climate to them. The regional characteristics and impacts of future climate change in the Baltic Sea countries have been explored since at least the 1990s. Later research has supported many findings from the early studies, but advances in understanding and improved modeling tools have made the picture gradually more comprehensive and more detailed. Nevertheless, many uncertainties still remain.In the Baltic Sea region, warming is likely to exceed its global average, particularly in winter and in the northern parts of the area. The warming will be accompanied by a general increase in winter precipitation, but in summer, precipitation may either increase or decrease, with a larger chance of drying in the southern than in the northern parts of the region. Despite the increase in winter precipitation, the amount of snow is generally expected to decrease, as a smaller fraction of the precipitation falls as snow and midwinter snowmelt episodes become more common. Changes in windiness are very uncertain, although most projections suggest a slight increase in average wind speed over the Baltic Sea. Climatic extremes are also projected to change, but some of the changes will differ from the corresponding change in mean climate. For example, the lowest winter temperatures are expected to warm even more than the winter mean temperature, and short-term summer precipitation extremes are likely to become more severe, even in the areas where the mean summer precipitation does not increase.The projected atmospheric changes will be accompanied by an increase in Baltic Sea water temperature, reduced ice cover, and, according to most studies, reduced salinity due to increased precipitation and river runoff. The seasonal cycle of runoff will be modified by changes in precipitation and earlier snowmelt. Global-scale sea level rise also will affect the Baltic Sea, but will be counteracted by glacial isostatic adjustment. According to most projections, in the northern parts of the Baltic Sea, the latter will still dominate, leading to a continued, although decelerated, decrease in relative sea level. The changes in the physical environment and climate will have a number of environmental impacts on, for example, atmospheric chemistry, freshwater and marine biogeochemistry, ecosystems, and coastal erosion. However, future environmental change in the region will be affected by several interrelated factors. Climate change is only one of them, and in many cases its effects may be exceeded by other anthropogenic changes.

scholarly journals Remediating Agricultural Legacy Nutrient Loads in the Baltic Sea Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3872
Author(s):  
Julia Tanzer ◽  
Ralf Hermann ◽  
Ludwig Hermann
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Agricultural Soils ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Nutrient Loads ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Nutrient Emissions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Agricultural Legacy

The Baltic Sea is considered the marine water body most severely affected by eutrophication within Europe. Due to its limited water exchange nutrients have a particularly long residence time in the sea. While several studies have analysed the costs of reducing current nutrient emissions, the costs for remediating legacy nutrient loads of past emissions remain unknown. Although the Baltic Sea is a comparatively well-monitored region, current data and knowledge is insufficient to provide a sound quantification of legacy nutrient loads and much less their abatement costs. A first rough estimation of agricultural legacy nutrient loads yields an accumulation of 0.5–4.0 Mt N and 0.3–1.2 Mt P in the Baltic Sea and 0.4–0.5 Mt P in agricultural soils within the catchment. The costs for removing or immobilising this amount of nutrients via deep water oxygenation, mussel farming and soil gypsum amendment are in the range of few tens to over 100 billion €. These preliminary results are meant as a basis for future studies and show that while requiring serious commitment to funding and implementation, remediating agricultural legacy loads is not infeasible and may even provide economic benefits to local communities in the long run.

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