Perceived Versus Actual Polling Effects: Biases in Perceptions of Election Poll Effects on Candidate Evaluations

<p class="ber"><span lang="EN-GB">This study investigates the relationship between daily US presidential election poll results and stock returns. The sample consists of the daily presidential election polls published in the New-York Times for the period between May 31 and November 5, 2012. They include the percentage of support for the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. The findings indicate that stock returns are positively related to the poll results that support the candidate favored to win the election.</span></p>

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Competing Explanations of Split-ticket Voting in American National Elections

American Politics Quarterly ◽

10.1177/1532673x00028003005 ◽

2000 ◽

Vol 28 (3) ◽

pp. 379-407 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

FRANCO MATTEI ◽

JOHN S. HOWES

Keyword(s):

Small Group ◽

National Elections ◽

Congressional Voting ◽

Party Polarization ◽

Model Based ◽

Alternative Approach ◽

Candidate Evaluations ◽

Electoral Expectations ◽

The Relationship

In this article, the authors propose an extension to Fiorina's balancing model based on voters' electoral expectations and test this extension and several implications of the theory. The authors examine the observed pattern of ticket-splitting and find it less consistent with a balancing perspective than with an alternative approach stressing separation between presidential and congressional voting. They also address the relationship between party polarization and ticket-splitting; their results indicate that the occurrence of split ballots does not increase with polarization. A further test identifies respondents with both the sophistication and the motive to engage in balancing behavior. According to this analysis, balancing considerations influence, at most, the very small group of voters whose sophistication and electoral expectations give them the tools and the incentive to pursue balance with a split ballot. Ticket-splitting appears to result far more from incumbency and cross-pressured voters holding candidate evaluations at odds with their partisan learnings.

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Implicit candidate traits in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election: Replicating a dual-process model of candidate evaluations

Electoral Studies ◽

10.1016/j.electstud.2018.04.009 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 54 ◽

pp. 261-268 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Joseph A. Vitriol ◽

Aleksander Ksiazkiewicz ◽

Christina E. Farhart

Keyword(s):

Presidential Election ◽

Process Model ◽

Dual Process ◽

Dual Process Model ◽

Candidate Evaluations

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Do high engagement Instagram images influence presidential candidate evaluation? The moderating effect of familiarity

Journal of Research in Interactive Marketing ◽

10.1108/jrim-01-2021-0003 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Caroline Lego Munoz ◽

Terri Towner

Keyword(s):

Design Methodology ◽

The Political ◽

Candidate Evaluation ◽

Content Type ◽

Presidential Candidates ◽

Attitudes And Behaviors ◽

Presidential Primary ◽

Candidate Evaluations ◽

High Engagement ◽

Practical Implications

PurposeThis paper aims to examine how exposure to a presidential candidate's high engagement Instagram images influences a citizen's candidate evaluations.Design/methodology/approachData were collected via Amazon MTurk. A 3 × 2 experimental design was employed to test the persuasive effect of exposure of the “most liked” and “most commented on” images of the top four 2016 US presidential primary candidates on a US citizen's candidate evaluation.FindingsResults reveal that highly engaging Instagram images of unfamiliar presidential candidates positively influenced candidate evaluations. However, the same was not true for more well-known presidential candidates.Research limitations/implicationsThis study was not conducted during a live campaign and only examined four of the top 2016 presidential primary candidates.Practical implicationsThe research includes implications for marketers seeking to increase engagement and reach in Instagram marketing campaigns. This study shows that even brief exposure to a highly engaged post involving an unfamiliar person/product on social media can significantly alter evaluations of that person or product.Originality/valueTo the authors' knowledge, no experimental designs have addressed how Instagram posts influence users' political attitudes and behaviors within the political marketing and communications literature.

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