Stall Wars: When Do States Fight to Hold onto the Status Quo?*

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 523-529
Author(s):  
William Spaniel ◽  
Peter Bils ◽  
Gleason Judd
Keyword(s):  
Status Quo ◽  
Middle Range ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Status ◽  
Patient State

Abstract In many wars, fighting allows states to hold onto some of the disputed good until the conflict is over. Indeed, war may look attractive to some actors for that purpose even if they will likely lose and incur substantial costs in the process. How does this incentive to stall alter the likelihood of conflict onset? We develop a model in which a delay exists between war’s initiation and termination. During that time, states maintain a division of the disputed good. If states value the future at different rates, no mutually preferable settlement may exist. War is more likely when a more patient state is powerful but holds a smaller share during the dispute. In addition, we show that the parameters for war are non-monotonic in the length of conflict: fighting only occurs when the delay falls in a middle range.

The Futurists. Experts in World Futures

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jenny Andersson
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Other ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Status ◽  
The One ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
Images Of The Future ◽  
The Way

Alvin Toffler’s writings encapsulated many of the tensions of futurism: the way that futurology and futures studies oscillated between forms of utopianism and technocracy with global ambitions, and between new forms of activism, on the one hand, and emerging forms of consultancy and paid advice on the other. Paradoxically, in their desire to create new images of the future capable of providing exits from the status quo of the Cold War world, futurists reinvented the technologies of prediction that they had initially rejected, and put them at the basis of a new activity of futures advice. Consultancy was central to the field of futures studies from its inception. For futurists, consultancy was a form of militancy—a potentially world altering expertise that could bypass politics and also escaped the boring halls of academia.

Faith as Taking the Risk

1968 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 201-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wyatt T. Walker
Keyword(s):  
Status Quo ◽  
Prisoners Of War ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Status ◽  
Two Measures ◽  
The City

“Then Elisha said to those people who were assembled in the main square, in the midst of a terrible famine, with the Syrian army at the gate: ‘In about twenty-four hours you will be able to buy a measure of fine flour for a shekel and two measures of barley for a shekel.’ And the captain upon whose arm the king leaned looked at him and spoke in derision: ‘Ha! What's God going to do? Open up a hole in the sky and pour out food upon all of these hungry people?’ And Elisha turned to him and said: ‘You have a big mouth. You will see it with your own eyes, but you will not eat thereof.’ And there were four lepers sitting at the entering in of the gate of Samaria, and they held a conversation amongst themselves that had to do with what the future might hold for them. And they said one to another: ‘What good is it for us to sit here until we die? If we go into the city, there is a famine there, and we shall die. If we sit here, if we maintain the status quo, if we hold what we've got, we shall die also. Come on, let us go out to meet the Syrian hosts, let's try something that we never tried before, and perhaps we shall be taken prisoners of war, and, if so, at least we'll survive. And if not, what have we got to lose?’” (II Kings 7: 1–20; the “Walker” translation).

The Predicament of Europe’s ‘Last Dictator’

2021 ◽  
pp. 223386592110183
Author(s):  
Yuliya Brel-Fournier ◽  
Minion K.C. Morrison
Keyword(s):  
Social Contract ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Modern History ◽  
Electoral Fraud ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Status ◽  
History Of

Belarusian citizens elected their first president in 1994. More than 20 years later, in October 2015, the same person triumphantly won the fifth consecutive presidential election. In August 2020, President Lukashenko’s attempt to get re-elected for the sixth time ended in months’ long mass protests against the electoral fraud, unspeakable violence used by the riot police against peaceful protesters and the deepest political crisis in the modern history of Belarus. This article analyzes how and why the first democratically elected Belarusian president attained this long-serving status. It suggests that his political longevity was conditioned by a specific social contract with the society that was sustained for many years. In light of the recent events, it is obvious that the contract is breached with the regime no longer living up to the bargain with the Belarusian people. As a result, the citizens seem unwilling to maintain their obligation for loyalty. We analyze the escalating daily price for maintaining the status quo and conclude considering the possible implications of this broken pact for the future of Belarus.

Perspectives of a European Law of Succession

2007 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Terner
Keyword(s):  
European Commission ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Green Paper ◽  
European Law ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Status ◽  
Law Of Succession

The article analyses the latest developments in the process of harmonisation in the area of succession law in Europe. The status quo of harmonisation is described and the plans to harmonise this area in the future – which have not been given much consideration in the jurisprudential literature so far – are examined in detail. Particular attention is drawn to the Green Paper ‘Succession and Wills’ which the European Commission has issued recently (COM(2005) 65 final). The preparatory works, the development and the content of the Green Paper are described, and the reactions to it, as well as its possible outcomes, are analysed.

scholarly journals Decentering the Status Quo : The Rhetorically Sanctioned Political Engagement of Groen van Prinsterer

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-159
Author(s):  
Jan Adriaan Schlebusch
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Political Engagement ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Political Activity ◽  
Narrative Approach ◽  
Constitutional Democracy ◽  
Strategic Framework ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Status

Abstract In his strategic political positioning and engagement in the nineteenth century, Groen van Prinsterer looked towards both the past and the future. Rhetorically, he appealed to the past as a vindication of the truth and practicality of his anti-revolutionary position. He also expressed optimism for the success of his convictions and political goals in the future. This optimism was reflected in the confidence with which he engaged politically, despite experiencing numerous setbacks in his career. Relying on the phenomenological-narrative approach of David Carr, I highlight the motives and strategies behind Groen’s political activity, and reveal that the past and the future in Groen’s narrative provide the strategic framework for his rhetoric, and the basis for his activism. I accentuate how the emphasis of his narrative shifts away from the status quo and thus enables a type of political engagement that proved historically significant for the early consolidation of the Dutch constitutional democracy.

scholarly journals Considerations on Armenian Political Elites, Diasporas and Armenian Economy in 1991-2019 Period

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ersan Bocutoğlu
Keyword(s):  
Status Quo ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Considerable Time ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
The West ◽  
Mental Transformation ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Status ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Set Up

After the liberation of Dağlık Karabağ and close vicinity from the long-standing Armenian occupation by Azerbaijan in 2020, different scenarios concerning the future of Armenia and South Caucasus have come to fore. Therefore, there should be a realistic evaluation of status quo of Armenian political elites, diasporas and Armenian economy relations before taking into account of the scenarios. It is not difficult to estimate that since the realization of optimistic scenarios need a mental transformation of Armenian political elites and diasporas that takes considerable time, they are not likely to happen let alone in the short run but even in the medium run. The aim of this paper is to investigate the status quo of Armenian political elites, diasporas, and Armenian economy relations during 1991-2019 period so as to be able to set up a scientific base on which the evaluation of scenarios concerning the future of Armenia and South Caucasus is placed. The method adopted in the paper is a descriptive one and data are collected via internet. Paper suggests that the divergence of Armenian political elites and diasporas on fundamental issues such as Armenia-diaspora relations, Armenia-Russia relations, Armenia-the West Relations and Armenia-Turkey-Azerbaijan relations blackens not only the future of Armenia but also the future of South Caucasus.

The Armenian duduk resounds in Artsakh

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Milka Marie-Madeleine Malfait
Keyword(s):  
International Community ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Mountainous Region ◽  
The Third ◽  
External Threats ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Status ◽  
Descriptive Method

Throughout its history, Artsakh had to guard against the external threats of Neo-Ottomanism. At the present time it is especially relevant. September 27, 2020 marks escalation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh – which means Artsakh in Armenian. This led to six weeks of cease fire, humanitarian disaster, which killed many people and destroyed cultural and religious heritage of Artsakh. The mountainous region is surrounded by Azerbaijani land, although populated by Armenians. Due to the political novelty of this issue, the author employed analytical and descriptive method. The acquired results demonstrate that the history repeats itself in Neo-Ottomanism, which has been a threat to Artsakh and Armenia since its emergence until the present day. In recent years, the concept of reunification with Armenia, as well as the independence of Artsakh, outlined the prospects for the future. The third solution to the conflict became the ceasefire agreement of 9 November 2020, nobly negotiated by Russia to save Armenia from military collapse. However, this solution is more painful than the status-quo. The main conclusion consists in the statement that the international community should be more vigilant and prevent the expansion of such threats.

Displaced Vision: The Politics of Realism in Kracauer and Kluge1

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tara Forrest
Keyword(s):  
Physical Reality ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Siegfried Kracauer ◽  
The Future ◽  
Value Judgements ◽  
The Status ◽  
Alexander Kluge

This chapter focuses on some of the key intersections between the theories of cinematic realism developed by Siegfried Kracauer and Alexander Kluge. While, on the surface, their definitions of realism may appear very different, on closer view it is clear that both theorists are concerned with the role that a realist film practice can play in displacing the spectator’s vision and, in the process, facilitating a mode of perception that is not inflected by the ‘ideas’ and ‘value judgements’ that shape and delimit our experience of the present. Focusing on Kracauer’s Theory of Film: The Redemption of Physical Reality and on Kluge’s essays on the political promise of an “antagonistic” realist aesthetic, this chapter explores the role that a realist film practice can play in reanimating the viewer’s capacity to conceive of the possibilities of the future outside the parameters of the status quo.

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