scholarly journals The Missing Link: Monetary Policy and The Labor Share

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristiano Cantore ◽  
Filippo Ferroni ◽  
Miguel León-Ledesma
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Great Moderation ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Present Evidence ◽  
Labor Share ◽  
Nk Model ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock

Abstract The textbook New Keynesian (NK) model implies that the labor share is procyclical conditional on a monetary policy shock. We present evidence that a monetary policy tightening robustly increased the labor share and decreased real wages during the Great Moderation period in the United States, the Euro Area, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada. We show that this is inconsistent not only with the basic NK model, but also with medium-scale NK models commonly used for monetary policy analysis and where it is possible to break the direct link between the labor share and the inverse markup. Our results imply that either NK models are unable to separate the dynamics of the labor share from the markup or markups do not respond in the way NK models predict.

scholarly journals Monetary and Macroprudential Policy with Endogenous Risk

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (236) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Adrian ◽  
Fernando Duarte ◽  
Nellie Liang ◽  
Pawel Zabczyk
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Endogenous Risk ◽  
Nk Model ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Financial Conditions

We extend the New Keynesian (NK) model to include endogenous risk. Lower interest rates not only shift consumption intertemporally but also conditional output risk via their impact on risk-taking, giving rise to a vulnerability channel of monetary policy. The model fits the conditional output gap distribution and can account for medium-term increases in downside risks when financial conditions are loose. The policy prescriptions are very different from those in the standard NK model: monetary policy that focuses purely on inflation and output-gap stabilization can lead to instability. Macroprudential measures can mitigate the intertemporal risk-return tradeoff created by the vulnerability channel.

Testing monetary policy optimality using volatility outcomes: a novel approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Ravenna
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Optimal Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
Optimal Monetary Policy ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility

AbstractWe propose a method to assess the efficiency of macroeconomic outcomes using the restrictions implied by optimal policy DSGE models for the volatility of observable variables. The method exploits the variation in the model parameters, rather than random deviations from the optimal policy. In the new Keynesian business cycle model this approach shows that optimal monetary policy imposes tighter restrictions on the behavior of the economy than is readily apparent. The method suggests that for the historical output, inflation and interest rate volatility in the United States over the 1984–2005 period to be generated by any optimal monetary policy with a high probability, the observed interest rate time series should have a 25% larger variance than in the data.

scholarly journals New Keynesian Liquidity Trap and Conventional Fiscal Stance: An Estimated DSGE Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 152-169
Author(s):  
Olatunji Abdul Shobande ◽  
Oladimeji Tomiwa Shodipe
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Transmission Channel ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Exogenous Shock ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables

Abstract The study investigates the effect of New Keynesian liquidity trap on fiscal stance in the United States, United Kingdom and Japan economies. We developed our DSGE model in the context of an optimal and persistent interactive fiscal policy, which allows us to track the transmission channel through which shocks are distributed among real economic variables. The evidence suggests that zero lower bound mitigates the ability of monetary policy to absorb the effect of exogenous shock on the macroeconomic variables while expansionary fiscal policy was able to absorb the shock persistence transmitted from the nominal interest rate.

THE SIGNAL EXTRACTION PROBLEM REVISITED: A NOTE ON ITS IMPACT ON A MODEL OF MONETARY POLICY

2009 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 405-426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin D. Keen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock ◽  
Future Policy ◽  
Sticky Wages

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky prices and sticky wages, in which agents have imperfect information on the stance and direction of monetary policy. Agents respond by using Kalman filtering to unravel persistent and temporary monetary policy changes in order to form optimal forecasts of future policy actions. Our results show that a New Keynesian model with imperfect information and real rigidities can account for several key effects of an expansionary monetary policy shock: the hump-shaped increase in output, the delayed and gradual rise in inflation, and the fall in the nominal interest rate.

scholarly journals The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy: A New Measure for the United Kingdom

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 75-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Cloyne ◽  
Patrick Hürtgen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
The United States ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Price Puzzle ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Forecast Data ◽  
Identification Approach ◽  
Macroeconomic Effects

This paper estimates the effects of monetary policy based on a new, extensive real-time dataset for the United Kingdom. Employing the Romer–Romer identification approach we construct a new measure of monetary policy innovations and find that a 1 percentage point increase in the policy rate reduces output by 0.6 percent and inflation by up to 1 percentage point after 2 to 3 years. Our use of forecast data is shown to be crucial and that their omission generates the well-known price puzzle. Our estimates are more comparable to the wider VAR literature but we also reconcile our findings with the Romer–Romer estimates for the United States. (JEL E23, E31, E32, E52)

Delegating Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia in a Small-Open Economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daisuke Ida ◽  
Mitsuhiro Okano
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Closed Economy ◽  
Optimal Monetary Policy ◽  
Nk Model ◽  
Exchange Rate Targeting

AbstractThis paper explores the delegation of several targeting regimes in a small open new Keynesian (NK) model and examines how central banks overcome stabilization bias in a small open NK model. Results indicate that both speed limit and real exchange rate targeting can carry the isomorphic properties of optimal monetary policy over to the closed economy. In addition, neither nominal income growth targeting nor CPI inflation targeting replicates a commitment policy. These findings provide new implications for optimal monetary policy in an open economy.

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