Shared Prosperity (or Lack Thereof) in the Sharing Economy

This paper examines the potential economic spillover effects of a home sharing platform—Airbnb—on the growth of a complimentary local service—restaurants. By circumventing traditional land-use regulations and providing access to underutilized inventory, Airbnb attracts visitors to outlets that are not traditional tourist destinations. Although visitors generally bring significant spending power, it is unclear whether visitors use Airbnb only primarily for lodging and thus do not contribute to the adjacent economy. To evaluate this, we focus on the impact of Airbnb on restaurant employment growth across locales in New York City (NYC). Specifically, we focus on areas in NYC that did not attract a significant tourist volume prior to the emergence of a home-sharing service. Our results indicate a salient and economically significant positive spillover effect on restaurant job growth in an average NYC locality. A one-percentage-point increase in the intensity of Airbnb activity (Airbnb reviews per household) leads to approximately 1.7% restaurant employment growth. Since home-sharing visitors are lodging in areas that are not accustomed to tourists, we also investigate the demographic and market-structure-related heterogeneity of our results. Notably, restaurants in areas with a relatively high number of White residents disproportionately benefit from the economic spillover of Airbnb activity, whereas the impact in majority-Black areas is not statistically significant. Thus, policy makers must consider the heterogeneity in the potential economic benefits as they look to regulate home-sharing activities.

Hydrological impact of widespread afforestation in Great Britain using a large ensemble of modelled scenarios

Ambitious afforestation proposals in the last decade target potential flood mitigation and carbon storage benefits but without a systematic, large-scale (>1000 km2) quantitative evaluation of their impacts on streamflow. Here, we assess the impact of afforestation on streamflow across twelve diverse catchments (c.500-10,000 km2) using a high-resolution land-surface model with a large ensemble of afforestation scenarios. Afforestation consistently decreases median and low streamflow. Median modelled flow is reduced by 2.8% ± 1.0 (1 s.d.), or 10 mm yr−1 ± 2.1 (1 s.d.), for a ten-percentage point increase in catchment broadleaf woodland. We find no nationally-consistent reduction of extreme floods. In larger catchments, planting extent is a stronger control on streamflow than location. Our results suggest that despite its potential environmental and societal benefits, widespread afforestation may inadvertently reduce water availability, particularly in drier areas, whilst only providing a modest reduction in extreme flood flows.

Free-Riding for Future: Field Experimental Evidence of Strategic Substitutability in Climate Protest

We test the hypothesis that protest participation decisions in an adult population of potential climate protesters are interdependent. Subjects (n=1,510) from the four largest German cities were recruited two weeks before protest date. We measured participation (ex post) and beliefs about the other subjects' participation (ex ante) in an online survey, used a randomized informational intervention to induce exogenous variance in beliefs, and estimated the causal effect of a change in belief on the probability of participation using a control function approach. Participation decisions are found to be strategic substitutes: a one percentage-point increase of belief causes a .67 percentage-point decrease in the probability of participation in the average subject.

Free-Riding for Future: Field Experimental Evidence of Strategic Substitutability in Climate Protest

We test the hypothesis that protest participation decisions in an adult population of potential climate protesters are interdependent. Subjects (n=1,510) from the four largest German cities were recruited two weeks before protest date. We measured participation (ex post) and beliefs about the other subjects' participation (ex ante) in an online survey, used a randomized informational intervention to induce exogenous variance in beliefs, and estimated the causal effect of a change in belief on the probability of participation using a control function approach. Participation decisions are found to be strategic substitutes: a one percentage-point increase of belief causes a .67 percentage-point decrease in the probability of participation in the average subject.

Exporting and environmental performance: where you export matters

Empirical analyses that rely on micro-level panel data have found that exporters are generally less pollutant than non-exporters. While alternative explanations have been proposed, firm level data has not been used to examine the role of destination markets behind the relationship between exports and pollution. In this paper we argue that because consumers in high-income countries have higher valuations for clean environments than consumers in developing countries, exporters targeting high-income countries are more likely to improve their environmental outcomes than exporters targeting destinations where valuations for the environment are not high. Using a panel of firm-level data from Chile we find support to this hypothesis. A 10 percentage point increase in the share of exports to high-income countries is associated with a reduction in CO2 pollution intensity of about 16%. The results have important implications for firms in developing countries aiming to target high-income markets.

Contribution of primary care expansion to Sustainable Development Goal 3 for health: a microsimulation of the 15 largest cities in Brazil

ObjectivesAs middle-income countries strive to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it remains unclear to what degree expanding primary care coverage can help achieve those goals and reduce within-country inequalities in mortality. Our objective was to estimate the potential impact of primary care expansion on cause-specific mortality in the 15 largest Brazilian cities.DesignMicrosimulation model.Setting15 largest cities by population size in Brazil.ParticipantsSimulated populations.InterventionsWe performed survival analysis to estimate HRs of death by cause and by demographic group, from a national administrative database linked to the Estratégia de Saúde da Família (Family Health Strategy, FHS) electronic health and death records among 1.2 million residents of Rio de Janeiro (2010–2016). We incorporated the HRs into a microsimulation to estimate the impact of changing primary care coverage in the 15 largest cities by population size in Brazil.Primary and secondary outcome measuresCrude and age-standardised mortality by cause, infant mortality and under-5 mortality.ResultsIncreased FHS coverage would be expected to reduce inequalities in mortality among cities (from 2.8 to 2.4 deaths per 1000 between the highest-mortality and lowest-mortality city, given a 40 percentage point increase in coverage), between welfare recipients and non-recipients (from 1.3 to 1.0 deaths per 1,000), and among race/ethnic groups (between Black and White Brazilians from 1.0 to 0.8 deaths per 1,000). Even a 40 percentage point increase in coverage, however, would be insufficient to reach SDG targets alone, as it would be expected to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 20% (vs the target of 33%), and communicable diseases by 15% (vs 100%).ConclusionsFHS primary care coverage may be critically beneficial to reducing within-country health inequalities, but reaching SDG targets will likely require coordination between primary care and other sectors.

Immigration and anti-immigrant voting in the 2017 German parliamentary election

We empirically examine the relationship between immigration and votes for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in the 2017 German parliamentary election. We conduct a cross-sectional analysis, exploiting election results and socio-demographic as well as geographic features of the 401 German administrative districts. We find that immigration has a negative effect on AfD voting. A 1 percentage point increase in the share of foreigners is associated with a decrease in the AfD vote share of up to 0.37 percentage points. The result is robust to several estimation variations, such as addressing the potentially endogenous distribution of foreigners with an instrumental variable analysis.

Government Borrowing and Crowding Out

We investigate the impact of fiscal expansions on firm investment by exploiting firms that have multiple banking relationships. Further, we conduct a localized RDD approach and compare the lending behavior of banks that barely met and missed the criteria of being a primary dealer, as well as barely winners and losers at government auctions. Our results indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in banks’ bonds-to-assets ratio decreases loans by up to 0.4%, which leads to significant declines in firm investment, profits and wages. Our findings are grounded in a quantitative model with financial and real sectors with which we undertake a welfare analysis and compute the cost of government borrowing on the overall economy.

The dynamic interaction between circular economy and the environment: Evidence on EU countries

This study examined the causal dynamics between circular economy (CE) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in European Union (EU) countries. The selected CE indicators included the trade in recyclable raw materials (TRM) and the circular material use rate (CMR) in the secondary raw materials area, the generation of municipal waste per capita (GMWp) in the production and consumption area and the recycling rate of municipal waste (RMW) in the area of waste management. The coefficients of the panel cointegration equations showed that for every 1 percentage point increase in RMW, average CO2 emissions decreased by 0.5%, while for every 1 percentage point increase in GMWp and TRM, the average CO2 emissions increased by 0.263% and 0.101%, respectively. It also showed that the recycling volumes and recycling rate had a positive but very limited impact on the CMR. The panel vector error correction model result showed that there were long-run bidirectional causalities between CE indicators and carbon emissions, and the TRM had a short-run negative impact on waste generation. However, the short-run impact of CE indicators on carbon emissions was not significant, which may be because the European CE is still in its infancy. The finding suggests that policymakers should adopt multilateral policies such as reducing carbon emissions, improving the efficiency and productivity of resource management and waste recycling, and increasing investment and innovation in the secondary raw materials market to achieve resource decoupling and impact decoupling. The decoupling of these two types is a necessary condition for sustainable development.

The Intersectionality of Educating Black Students in Michigan: Public School Finance, Racial Segregation, and Housing Policy

This research investigates Michigan’s system for funding public schools, particularly for Black students, via critical race theory, focusing on structural racism and discrimination embedded in education finance laws, housing policies, and residential and educational segregation. Our research questions are (i) How does district per-pupil funding in Michigan vary by race and income? (ii) Does variation by race and income depend on whether funding is from state or local sources? (iii) How does district property wealth in Michigan vary by race and income? and (iv) How does the proportion of property wealth Michigan districts commit to local education funding vary by race and income? We find that the average Black student receiving free or reduced-price lunch (FRL) receives $411 less per pupil than the average White student receiving FRL and $783 less per pupil than the average White student who does not receive FRL. These disparities stem entirely from differences in locally sourced district revenues that are the result of vast differences in property wealth. On average, a one-percentage-point increase in a district’s proportion of Black students receiving FRL is associated with a $2,354 decrease in taxable value of property per pupil, implying that a district with all Black students receiving FRL would have $235,400 less taxable value per pupil than a district with no Black students receiving FRL. Through its continued reliance on local property taxation, the school finance system in Michigan is just another example of how laws and policies reinforce structural racism and discrimination against Black students. This study can discern a self-reinforcing system that relegates Blacks to a subordinate socioeconomic status regarding school finance, segregation and housing policy, and discrimination.