The Covid pandemic enters the ballot box: The impact of conspiracy theories on Italians' voting behaviour during the COVID-19 crisis

The spread of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020 was the impetus for an exogenous shock. In addition to the disruption brought on by the spread of COVID-19, conspiracy theories flourished on many aspects of the disease. However, the association between belief in conspiracy theories and voting behaviour has not been studied sufficiently, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper investigates the association between a belief in conspiracy theories and an intention to vote for populist parties (PPs). This association is analysed in a case study of Italian voters, where PPs can be found in the government and in the opposition. By conducting a cross-sectional analysis during the third wave of panel data fielded in December 2020, this article shows that individuals who have anti-vax attitudes and who also have a higher propensity to believe in conspiracy theories are more likely to vote for PPs, although it is worth considering the roles PPs play in either the government or in the opposition.

Sooner or later? The impact of child education on household consumption

We study the impact of one more year of child’s education on household (non-durable) consumption. We exploit an exogenous shock generated by a university reform in Italy in the early 2000s. We find that families responded in a way that is consistent with education as a production good. The higher child’s education produced household positive, permanent income innovations. Hence, family non-durable consumption increased. Our findings suggest that education can be an insurance device against adverse permanent income shocks. The 2001 reform not only positively affected offspring’s years of schooling, but it also had a positive effect to boost household consumption.

The evolutionary and ecological perspectives on organizational form, strategy and performance: evidence from privatized firms in China

Purpose This study aims to examine how evolutionary and ecological forces shape the market strategy and performance of firms after their organizational form was changed by exogenous shock. Design/methodology/approach Hypotheses are developed based on both evolutionary and ecological perspectives and tested using fixed effect logistics models and a sample of 3,110 firms that were privatized during 1998–2007. Findings I find that once the organizational form of firms is changed, the market strategy of organizations is shaped by the population density of their old and new organizational forms in their existing market. Moreover, such a market strategy enhances the survival chance of firms. Originality/value This study contributes to organizational evolution literature by unpacking the evolution process when exogeneous shock to organizational form takes place. It advances both evolutionary economics and organization ecology theory through integrating them to understand the evolution process of organizations. This study also contributes to the privatization literature through examining the ecological forces that shape the restructuring strategy of firms after privatization and the performance implications of such restructuring.

Reading Between the Stars: Understanding the Effects of Online Customer Reviews on Product Demand

Problem definition: Many studies have examined quantitative customer reviews (i.e., star ratings) and found them to be a reliable source of information that has a positive effect on product demand. Yet the effect of qualitative customer reviews (i.e., text reviews) on demand has been less thoroughly studied, and it is not known whether (or how) the sentiment expressed in text reviews moderates the influence of star ratings on product demand. We are therefore led to examine how the interplay between review sentiment and star ratings affects product demand. Academic/practical relevance: Consumer perceptions of product quality and how they are shared via customer reviews are of extreme relevance to the firm, but we still do not understand how product demand is affected by the quantitative and qualitative aspects of customer reviews. Our paper seeks to fill this critical gap in the literature by analyzing star ratings, the sentiment of customer reviews, and their interaction. Methodology: Using 2002–2013 data for the U.S. automobile market, we investigate empirically the impact of star ratings and review sentiment on product demand. Thus, we estimate an aggregated multinomial choice model after performing a machine learning–based sentiment analysis on the entire corpus of customer reviews included in our sample. We take advantage of a quasi-exogenous shock to establish a causal link between online reviews and product demand. Results: We find robust empirical evidence that (i) review sentiment and star ratings both have a decreasingly positive effect on product demand and (ii) the effect (on demand) of their interaction suggests that the two components of reviews are complements. Positive sentiments in text reviews increase the positive effect of ratings when the effect of ratings is decidedly positive while they also compensate for the tendency of consumers to discount extremely high star ratings. Managerial implications: The firm should pay greater attention to quantitative and qualitative customer reviews to better understand how consumers perceive the quality of its offerings.

Durable Goods Adoption and the Consumer Discount Factor: A Case Study of the Norwegian Book Market

We exploit a change in Norway’s fixed book pricing policies to construct exclusion restrictions with which to identify consumers’ discount factor. We assume that the policy change generated an unanticipated, exogenous shock to consumers’ expectations about future price cuts. Our findings suggest that consumers are much more impatient than would be implied by the real rate of interest, challenging the standard assumed rate of discounting in the extant literature on dynamic demand estimation. The high rate of consumer impatience is consistent with laboratory studies in the behavioral economics and decision-making literatures. This paper was accepted by Matthew Shum, marketing.

Afterword

This short section reasserts and summarizes some of the key conclusions to the book, explaining how London responded to the strategic choices of Roman emperors and governors, initially as a gateway emporium and subsequently as a defended administrative enclave. Episodes of systematic change were also provoked by exogenous shock, and the effects of war and plague can be identified in the archaeological record from London. Imperial inputs helped London to recover from such events, but the city was wholly a creature of Rome and otherwise lacking in social capital. Its eventual failure was a direct product of the failure of the Roman administration. Some directions for future research are considered.

Air Pollution and Trade: The Case of China

We estimate the effects of trade on air pollution in China. To address endogeneity concerns, we use an instrumental variable strategy that treats the Great Recession as an exogenous shock that differentially affected China’s coastal provinces, which export a greater volume of manufacturing as they are closer to navigable waters. In our empirical analysis, we employ annual data on emissions of sulfur dioxide as well as smoke and dust at the province level from 2003 to 2015 to measure air pollution intensity (the ratio of air pollution to GDP), and we also use fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations data derived from satellite imagery as a robustness check. We find that a decrease in trade intensity (the ratio of trade to GDP) by 10 percentage points (a negative trade shock similar to what occurred during the Great Recession) increases sulfur dioxide emissions intensity by about 38 percentage points. Emissions of the other two air pollutants grow by similar proportions.

R&D Reporting Rule and Firm Efficiency

Critics opine that full expensing of research and development (R&D) depresses near-term profits and incentivizes myopic managers to under-invest in R&D, compromising firm efficiency. Advocates of the expensing rule argue that little rigorous research evidence supports the claimed adverse consequences. We examine the impact of the R&D expensing rule on firm efficiency by exploiting an exogenous shock: a shift in the accounting regime in Germany from full expensing to partial capitalization of R&D when it mandated International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) adoption in 2005. We employ Stochastic Frontier Analysis and Data Envelopment Analysis to estimate efficiency for the same German firms before and after the IFRS adoption. We find robust evidence of efficiency improvement in the post-period relative to the pre-period for German R&D firms that report R&D expenditures, and for both early adopters and timely adopters. We also document that financially constrained firms and firms experiencing rapid R&D growth prior to the IFRS adoption show greater efficiency improvement. Moreover, we conduct three falsification tests to make sure our results are not attributable to other accounting changes associated with the IFRS adoption, and find no efficiency improvement for the three control groups (German “no-R&D” sample, U.K. firms, and Australian firms), respectively. We conclude that the change in the R&D reporting rule is the likely catalyst for improvements in efficiency of German R&D firms.

SMEs and exogenous shocks: A conceptual literature review and forward research agenda

Economic crises, natural disasters, armed conflict and infectious disease outbreaks, amongst others, present interlinked challenges for small businesses and have generated a recent wealth of research across varied fields. Therefore, this article outlines an analytical lens suggesting how SMEs experience shocks and crises that focuses on the interlinked nature of (i) the business, (ii) the shock and (iii) the response within a given context. We thematically draw out key trends, knowledge gaps and tensions and highlight promising research and engagement avenues for future scholarship and practice. We contextualise (i) how small businesses are distinct from large firms in how they experience shock and crisis events; (ii) how different types of crises impact small business; (iii) how shocks and crises shape SME-specific responses and (iv) how the COVID-19 pandemic as a ‘novel exogenous shock’ influences all of the above. We conclude by emphasising emerging knowledge avenues for future small business, shock and crisis research.

The evolution of happiness pre and peri-COVID-19: A Markov Switching Dynamic Regression Model

Happiness levels often fluctuate from one day to the next, and an exogenous shock such as a pandemic can likely disrupt pre-existing happiness dynamics. This paper fits a Marko Switching Dynamic Regression Model (MSDR) to better understand the dynamic patterns of happiness levels before and during a pandemic. The estimated parameters from the MSDR model include each state’s mean and duration, volatility and transition probabilities. Once these parameters have been estimated, we use the one-step method to predict the unobserved states’ evolution over time. This gives us unique insights into the evolution of happiness. Furthermore, as maximising happiness is a policy priority, we determine the factors that can contribute to the probability of increasing happiness levels. We empirically test these models using New Zealand’s daily happiness data for May 2019 –November 2020. The results show that New Zealand seems to have two regimes, an unhappy and happy regime. In 2019 the happy regime dominated; thus, the probability of being unhappy in the next time period (day) occurred less frequently, whereas the opposite is true for 2020. The higher frequency of time periods with a probability of being unhappy in 2020 mostly correspond to pandemic events. Lastly, we find the factors positively and significantly related to the probability of being happy after lockdown to be jobseeker support payments and international travel. On the other hand, lack of mobility is significantly and negatively related to the probability of being happy.