Volatility Prediction Using a Realized-Measure-Based Component Model*

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diaa Noureldin
Keyword(s):  
Component Structure ◽  
Daily Return ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Fixed Parameter ◽  
Model Dynamics ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Volatility Regimes ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Abstract This article introduces a volatility model with a component structure allowing for a realized measure based on high-frequency data (e.g., realized variance) to drive the short-run volatility dynamics. In a joint model of the daily return and the realized measure, the conditional variance of the daily return has a multiplicative component structure: the first component traces long-run (secular) volatility trends, while the second component captures short-run (transitory) movements in volatility. Despite being a fixed-parameter model, its component structure implies time-varying parameters, which are “data-driven” to capture changing volatility regimes. We discuss the model dynamics and estimation by maximum likelihood. The empirical analysis reveals statistically significant out-of-sample gains compared to benchmark models, particularly for short forecast horizons and during the financial crisis.

Enhancing Economic Growth and Government Revenue Generation in Nigeria: The Role of Diaspora Remittances

2021 ◽  
pp. 003464462110256
Author(s):  
Dal Didia ◽  
Suleiman Tahir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Gross Domestic Product Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Even though remittances constitute the second-largest source of foreign exchange for Nigeria, with a $24 billion inflow in 2018, its impact on economic growth remains unclear. This study, therefore, examined the short-run and long-run impact of remittances on the economic growth of Nigeria using the vector error correction model. Utilizing World Bank data covering 1990–2018, the empirical analysis revealed that remittances hurt economic growth in the short run while having no impact on economic growth in the long run. Our parameter estimates indicate that a 1% increase in remittances would result in a 0.9% decrease in the gross domestic product growth rate in the short run. One policy implication of this study is that Nigeria needs to devise policies and interventions that minimize the emigration of skilled professionals rather than depending on remittances that do not offset the losses to the economy due to brain drain.

scholarly journals Re-estimation of Keynesian Model by Considering Critical Events and Multiple Cointegrating Vectors

2015 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-145
Author(s):  
Hafsa Hina ◽  
Abdul Qayyum
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Random Walk ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Dynamic Error ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Short Run

This study employs the Mundell (1963) and Fleming (1962) traditional flow model of exchange rate to examine the long run behaviour of rupee/US $ exchange rate for Pakistan economy over the period 1982:Q1 to 2010:Q2. This study investigates the effect of output levels, interest rates and prices and different shocks on exchange rate. Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, and Yoo (HEGY) (1990) unit root test confirms the presence of non-seasonal unit root and finds no evidence of biannual and annual frequency unit root in the level of series. Johansen and Juselious (1988, 1992) likelihood ratio test indicates three long-run cointegrating vectors. Cointegrating vectors are uniquely identified by imposing structural economic restrictions on purchasing power parity (PPP), uncovered interest parity (UIP) and current account balance. Finally, the short-run dynamic error correction model is estimated on the basis of identified cointegrated vectors. The speed of adjustment coefficient indicates that 17 percent of divergence from long-run equilibrium exchange rate path is being corrected in each quarter. US war with Afghanistan has significant impact on rupee in short run because of high inflows of US aid to Pakistan after 9/11. Finally, the parsimonious short run dynamic error correction model is able to beat the naïve random walk model at out of sample forecasting horizons. JEL Classification: F31, F37, F47 Keywords: Exchange Rate Determination, Keynesian Model, Cointegration, Out of Sample Forecasting, Random Walk Model

Does exchange rate volatility influence import commodities of India-US? Evidence from ARDL approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohini Gupta ◽  
Sakshi Varshney
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis ◽  
Real Exchange Rate Volatility

PurposeThe aim the study is to explore the impact of real exchange rate volatility and other macroeconomic variable such as price of import, industrial production and real exchange rate on 45 import commodities, considering global financial crisis period on India's import from the US. The empirical analysis at disaggregate level of import indicates the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in one-third importing commodities. The results show both positive and negative effect and causality among variables.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses E-GARCH model to gage the real exchange rate volatility, an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound test technique to discover the adequate short- and long-run relationships and Toda-Yamamoto causality method to analyze the causality among variables. The study uses the time period from 2002:M09 to 2019:M06.FindingsThe empirical analysis at disaggregate level of import indicates the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in one-third importing commodities. The results show both positive and negative effects and causality among variables.Practical implicationsThe finding of the study suggests that macroeconomic variables have significant role and could be important to undertake the small and medium scale industries in policymaking. Government may need to make decision for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) as their performance can bring change in the trade to compete globally by increasing and controlling the price of the import and defending the domestic competitiveness.Originality/valueThe study uses additional variable namely price of import and includes the global financial crisis period to measure dampening effect on each commodity by using robust econometric technique in context of emerging nation like India.

scholarly journals The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 72-83
Author(s):  
Mohd Shahidan Shaari ◽  
Nor Ermawati Hussain ◽  
Hafizah Abdul Rarhim
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Integration Technique ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The study aims to examine the effects of oil price and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysis commence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-based co-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationship between exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long run relationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed to check the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics are influenced by the estimated long run equilibrium. Granger causality was done and found that oil price does not affect unemployment but exchange rate has an influence on unemployment. Therefore, putting the exchange rate under control should be implemented to control unemployment.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility and Import Trade Flow Evidence From India-U.S. at Industry Level

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Mohini Gupta ◽  
Sakshi Varshney
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Import Trade ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The centre interest of the study is to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the India-U.S. trade flow of Import on 6 industries spanned from September 2002 to June 2019. We investigate the relationship at disaggregate level by industry-wise data with monthly frequency. We employ exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (E-GARCH) model to gauge volatility and thereafter ARDL bound testing approach to unveil the short and long-run association of real exchange rate volatility and import. The empirical analysis implies the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in 5 importing industries except manufactured (engineering) goods. While real exchange volatility appears to have statistically significant effect in short-run, but also estimated short-run lasts onto long-run effect in only three industries. The results confirm the information of import in time-series analysis. The finding of the study helps to undertake the view of invariability and considering the industry before policy making.

scholarly journals Event Tourism Demand and Selected Macroeconomic Variables: An Econometrics View of the Long-Run and Short-Run Relationships

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 183-196
Author(s):  
Sally Ann Yu-Ing Yap ◽  
Norazirah Ayob ◽  
Chin-Hong Puah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Normality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Growth Increase ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Event Tourism ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Assessing the substantial economic benefits of event tourism will provide insight into the effectiveness of tourism event in Malaysia.The significance of the tourism event sector has the potential to boost Malaysia’s economic growth, increase the arrivalof international tourists, increase tourist expenditure and further job creations.This study empirically investigates determinantsof event tourism demand in Malaysia during the period of 1991Q1to 2016Q4. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniqueis used to find the long-run cointegration relationshipsof the model. The model is further tested by employing diagnostic tests(Normality test, Serial Autocorrelation, Heteroscedasticity and Ramsey’s RESET test) and stability tests(CUSUM and CUSUMSQ). The empirical analysis of the boundstest indicatesthat there is a long-run cointegration among the variables under study. Besides that, the ARDL model produces reliable results,as all of the computed coefficientsof the independent variables are statistically significant with the expected signs. The findings are consistent witheconomic theory and the model passed all of the diagnostic tests.The findings of this study imply that event demand can be improved significantly when government spending,theexchange rate and tourist receipts increaseand the crude oil price decreases. Hence, government authorities and the private sector should createan integrated plan to enhancethe profit gained through the Malaysian economyfrom event tourism.

scholarly journals Inflation dynamics analysis in selected MENA countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 160-168
Author(s):  
Tarek Kacemi ◽  
Sallahuddin Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Least Square ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Pooled Mean Group ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The current paper analyses the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) in the context of selected MENA countries over the 1990-2016 period. This study has used Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) estimation methods for the empirical analysis. For the dynamic heterogeneous panels, PMG developed by Pesaran et al. (1999) is the most suitable technique. The outcomes by FMOLS asserted that inflation and unemployment are unrelated in the long run, corroborating the long run Philips Curve theory. While, the empirical outcomes obtained by PMG indicate negative linkage between unemployment and inflation in the long run. Nevertheless, the notion of the tradeoff between the inflation and unemployment that expressed by a short-run Phillips curve is not observed in the selected MENA countries. The findings of this study corroborate the hybrid version of NKPC. Moreover, it establishes of the study suggest that the dynamic inflation can be used as a HNKPC model for understanding the inflation behavior in selected MENA countries.

scholarly journals Does formal education at all levels cause economic growth? Evidence from Greece

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panagiotis Pegkas ◽  
Constantinos Tsamadias
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Educational Level ◽  
Formal Education ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Educational Levels ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

AbstractThis study empirically investigates the link between the levels of formal education and economic growth in Greece during the period 1960-2009. The paper applies the Lucas approach (1988) and employs cointegration, error-correction models and estimates the effect of each educational level on economic growth. The empirical analysis reveals that there is a long-run relation between educational levels and gross domestic product. The overall results show that secondary and higher education has had a statistically significant positive impact on growth, while primary has not contributed to economic growth. The findings also suggest that there is evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from primary education to growth, bidirectional long-run causality between secondary and growth, long-run and short-run causality running from higher education to economic growth.

scholarly journals Effects of model specification, short-run, and long-run inefficiency: an empirical analysis of stochastic frontier models

2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (No. 11) ◽  
pp. 508-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Habtamu ALEM
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Stochastic Frontier ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Panel Data Models ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Multiple Input ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

This paper examines the recent advances in stochastic frontier (SF) models and its implications for the performance of Norwegian crop-producing farms. In contrast to the previous studies, we used a cost function in multiple input-output frameworks to estimate both long-run (persistent) and short-run (transient) inefficiency. The empirical analysis is based on unbalanced farm-level panel data for 1991–2013 with 3 885 observations from 455 Norwegian farms specialising in crop production. We estimated seven SF panel data models grouped into four categories regarding the assumptions used to the nature of inefficiency. The estimated cost efficiency scores varied from 53–95%, showing that the results are sensitive to how the inefficiency is modeled and interpreted.

scholarly journals Information Diffusion and the Lead-Lag Relationship between Small and Large Size Portfolios: Evidence from an Emerging Market

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Anastassios A. Drakos ◽  
Panayiotis F. Diamandis ◽  
Georgios P. Kouretas
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Large Size ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Estimated Error

<p>This paper investigates whether lead-lag patterns exist between small and large size portfolios constructed from stocks traded in an emerging market, the Cyprus Stock Exchange (CSE). We examine this relation in both its short-run by using the correlation-based approach of Lo and MacKinlay (1990) and its long-run by employing the cointegration-based methodology of Kanas and Kouretas (2005). Furthermore, on finding that cointegration exists we then use the estimated error correction models (ECMs) to obtain out-of-sample forecasts of small-firm portfolio returns and it is shown that these ECMs have superior forecasting performance relative to models without the error correction terms. The main finding of our analysis is that a lead-lag effect was established between small and large size portfolios for the Cyprus equity market in both the short-run and the long-run.</p>

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