scholarly journals Information Diffusion and the Lead-Lag Relationship between Small and Large Size Portfolios: Evidence from an Emerging Market

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Anastassios A. Drakos ◽  
Panayiotis F. Diamandis ◽  
Georgios P. Kouretas
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Large Size ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Estimated Error

<p>This paper investigates whether lead-lag patterns exist between small and large size portfolios constructed from stocks traded in an emerging market, the Cyprus Stock Exchange (CSE). We examine this relation in both its short-run by using the correlation-based approach of Lo and MacKinlay (1990) and its long-run by employing the cointegration-based methodology of Kanas and Kouretas (2005). Furthermore, on finding that cointegration exists we then use the estimated error correction models (ECMs) to obtain out-of-sample forecasts of small-firm portfolio returns and it is shown that these ECMs have superior forecasting performance relative to models without the error correction terms. The main finding of our analysis is that a lead-lag effect was established between small and large size portfolios for the Cyprus equity market in both the short-run and the long-run.</p>

scholarly journals Re-estimation of Keynesian Model by Considering Critical Events and Multiple Cointegrating Vectors

2015 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-145
Author(s):  
Hafsa Hina ◽  
Abdul Qayyum
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Random Walk ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Dynamic Error ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Short Run

This study employs the Mundell (1963) and Fleming (1962) traditional flow model of exchange rate to examine the long run behaviour of rupee/US $ exchange rate for Pakistan economy over the period 1982:Q1 to 2010:Q2. This study investigates the effect of output levels, interest rates and prices and different shocks on exchange rate. Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, and Yoo (HEGY) (1990) unit root test confirms the presence of non-seasonal unit root and finds no evidence of biannual and annual frequency unit root in the level of series. Johansen and Juselious (1988, 1992) likelihood ratio test indicates three long-run cointegrating vectors. Cointegrating vectors are uniquely identified by imposing structural economic restrictions on purchasing power parity (PPP), uncovered interest parity (UIP) and current account balance. Finally, the short-run dynamic error correction model is estimated on the basis of identified cointegrated vectors. The speed of adjustment coefficient indicates that 17 percent of divergence from long-run equilibrium exchange rate path is being corrected in each quarter. US war with Afghanistan has significant impact on rupee in short run because of high inflows of US aid to Pakistan after 9/11. Finally, the parsimonious short run dynamic error correction model is able to beat the naïve random walk model at out of sample forecasting horizons. JEL Classification: F31, F37, F47 Keywords: Exchange Rate Determination, Keynesian Model, Cointegration, Out of Sample Forecasting, Random Walk Model

scholarly journals A Study of the Effect of Inflation and Exchange Rate on Stock Market Returns in Ghana

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Kwofie ◽  
Richard Kwame Ansah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Ghana Stock Exchange

The study examined the effect of exchange rate and inflation on stock market returns in Ghana using monthly inflation and exchange rate data obtained from the Bank of Ghana and monthly market returns computed from the GSE all-share index from January 2000 to December 2013. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration technique and the error correction parametization of the ARDL model were used for examining this effect. The ARDL and its corresponding error correction model were used in establishing the long- and short-run relationship between the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) market returns, inflation, and exchange rate. The result of the study showed that there exists a significant long-run relationship between GSE market returns and inflation. However, no significant short-run relationship between them existed. The result also showed a significant long- and short-run relationship between GSE market returns and exchange rate. The variables were tested for long memory and it was observed that such property did exist in these variables, making it a desirable feature of which investors can take advantage of. This is due to the establishment of long-run effect of inflation and exchange rate on stock market returns.

Quality investing in the Indian stock market

2018 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vaibhav Lalwani ◽  
Madhumita Chakraborty
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quality Indicators ◽  
Quality Indicator ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore whether stock selection strategies based on four fundamental quality indicators can generate superior returns compared to overall market. Design/methodology/approach The sample of stocks comprises the constituents of BSE-500 index, which is a broad based index consisting of highly liquid stocks from all 20 major industries of the Indian economy. Portfolios are constructed on the basis of quality indicator rankings of companies and the returns of these portfolios are compared with the overall market. Excess returns on quality based portfolios are also determined using OLS regressions of quality portfolio returns on market, size, value and momentum factor returns. Findings The results suggest that two of the four quality strategies, namely Grantham Quality indicator and Gross Profitability have generated superior returns after controlling for market returns as well as common anomalies such as size, value and momentum. Combining value strategies with quality strategies do not yield any significant gains relative to quality only strategies. Practical implications For investors looking to invest in the Indian stock market for a long term, this study provides evidence on the performance of some fundamental indicators that can help predict long run stock performance. The findings suggest that investors can distinguish between high-performing and low-performing stocks based on stock quality indicators. Originality/value This is the first such study to look into the performance of quality investing in the Indian stock market. As most quality investing studies have been focussed on developed economies, this paper provides out-of-sample evidence for quality investing in the context of an emerging market.

scholarly journals Key Fundamental Factors and Long-run Price Changes in an Emerging Market—A Case Study of Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)

2002 ◽  
Vol 41 (4II) ◽  
pp. 517-533 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Irfan Chaudhary ◽  
Mohammed Nishat
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Relevant Factor ◽  
Direct Relation ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Long Run

Share prices are the most important indicator readily available to the investors for their decision to invest or not in a particular share. Theories suggest that share price changes are associated with changes in fundamental variables which are relevant for share valuation like payout ratio, dividend yield, capital structure, earnings size of the firm and its growth, [Wilcox (1984); Rappoport (1986); Downs (1991)]. Linter (1956) linked dividend changes to earnings while Shapiro valuation model (1962) showed dividend streams discounted by the difference in discount rate and growth in dividend should be equal to share price. This predicts direct relation between pay out ratio and the price-earning multiple. Conversely it means that there is an inverse relation between pay out ratio and share price changes. Several eventbased studies established direct relation between share price changes and either earnings or dividend changes [Ball and Brown (1968); Baskin (1989)]. Sharpe (1964) and Hamada (1972) suggested direct relation between share price changes and capital structure. Beaver, Kettler and Sholes (1970) showed that firms appear to pay less of their earnings if they have higher earning volatility. This suggests payout ratio as relevant factor for share price changes. Investigations of share price changes appear to yield evidence that changes in fundamental variable(s) should jointly bring about changes in share prices both in developed and emerging markets. However, the actual fundamental factors found to be relevant may vary from market to market. For example, changes in asset growth of firms are significant in the case of Japanese shares while earnings appear to be universally a relevant factor [Ariff, et al. (1994)]. However, it is widely agreed that a set of fundamental variables as suggested by individual theories is no doubt relevant as possible factors affecting share price changes in the short and the long-run [Ariff and Khan (2000)].

scholarly journals The long-Run and Short-Run Analysis between Stock Market Index and Macroeconomic Variables in Jordan: Bounds Tests Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 50
Author(s):  
Raed Walid Al-Smadi ◽  
Muthana Mohammad Omoush
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run

This paper investigates the long-run and short-run relationship between stock market index and the macroeconomic variables in Jordan. Annual time series data for the 1978&ndash;2017 periods and the ARDL bounding test are used. The results identify long-run equilibrium relationship between stock market index and the macroeconomic variables in Jordan. Jordanian policy makers have to pay more attention to the current regulation in the Amman Stock Exchange(ASE) and manage it well, thus ultimately helping financial development.

scholarly journals The dynamic effect of exchange-rate volatility on Turkish exports: Parsimonious error-correction model approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 429-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erdal Demirhan ◽  
Banu Demirhan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Dynamic Effect ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Short Run

This paper aims to investigate the effect of exchange-rate stability on real export volume in Turkey, using monthly data for the period February 2001 to January 2010. The Johansen multivariate cointegration method and the parsimonious error-correction model are applied to determine long-run and short-run relationships between real export volume and its determinants. In this study, the conditional variance of the GARCH (1, 1) model is taken as a proxy for exchange-rate stability, and generalized impulse-response functions and variance-decomposition analyses are applied to analyze the dynamic effects of variables on real export volume. The empirical findings suggest that exchangerate stability has a significant positive effect on real export volume, both in the short and the long run.

scholarly journals Effects of Exchange Rate and Inflation Rate on Stock Market Returns Volatility in India.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nenavath Sre ◽  
Suresh Naik
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Abstract The paper investigates the effect of exchange and inflation rate on stock market returns in India. The study uses monthly, quarterly and annual inflation and exchange rate data obtained from the RBI and market returns computed from the Indian share market index from January, 2000 to June, 2020.The paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) co-integration technique and the error correction parametization of the ARDL model for investigating the effect on Indian Stock markets. The GARCH and its corresponding Error Correction Model (ECM) were used to explore the long- and short-run relationship between the India Stock market returns, inflation, and exchange rate. The paper shows that there exists a long term relationship but there is no short-run relationship between Indian market returns and inflation. But, there is periodicity of inflation monthly considerable long run and short-run relationship between them existed. The outcome also illustrates a significant short-run relationship between NSE market returns and exchange rate. The variables were tested for short run and it was significantly shown the positive effects on the stock market returns and making it a desirable attribute of which investors can take advantage of. This is due to the establishment of long-run effect of inflation and exchange rate on stock market returns.

scholarly journals Price Transmission and Factors Influencing the Price of Onions in Tanzania

2020 ◽  
pp. 67-76
Author(s):  
Yohana James Mgale
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Adjustment Cost ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This article analyzes the transmission of prices between marketing agents and the factors affecting onion prices at the consumer level. The Error Correction Model-Engle Granger (ECM-EG) was used to test the price transmission by including the impact of the rise and fall of producer, wholesale and retail prices in past periods. The Error Correction Model (ECM) was applied to the factors affecting onion prices. The test results showed that price transmission was asymmetrical in the short and long-run. With regard to factors, the results show that consumer price in the short-run was influenced by wholesale prices, producer prices and the price of fuel while in the long-run it was influenced by wholesale prices, producer price, price of fuel and consumer prices in the previous period (t-1). These results suggest the existence of a short-term adjustment cost and a long-term market power which distorts price transmission.

The Impact of Economic Sentiment, Consumer, Producer and Investor's Confidence Indices on Stock Returns of the Listed Companies in FTSE-20 in Greece

2018 ◽  
pp. 162-209
Author(s):  
Constantine Cantzos ◽  
Petros Kalantonis ◽  
Aristidis Papagrigoriou ◽  
Stefanos Theotokas
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Behavioral Indicators ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This chapter examines the relationship between stock returns of companies listed in the FTSE-20 on the Athens Exchange and behavioral indicators. The research is based on the behavioral APT model, which examines stock returns' risk factors through the involvement of macroeconomic variables and behavioral indicators. The data is the closing price of 17 shares listed in the FTSE-20 index, a number of macroeconomic variables, and a series of behavioral indicators for the period of January 2001-December 2014. Regressions were conducted with dependent variable stock returns of a portfolio invested equally in these 17 stocks. In addition, the research tests the existence of long-run and short-run equilibrium and causality. The change in the industrial production index along with the risk premium have a positive and significant impact on the portfolio returns. Johansen's test showed that there is a long-run equilibrium between stock returns, macroeconomic variables, and behavioral indicators. The VECM and VAR models showed that there is not long and short-run causality, not even Granger causality. No similar research has been conducted in Greece, thus it fills a literature gap.

Linkages Between Employment and Net FDI Inflow: Insights from Individual as Well as Panel Data for Emerging South Asian Labour Market

2020 ◽  
pp. 097215091987350
Author(s):  
Ramesh Chandra Das ◽  
Kamal Ray
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Employment Level ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

In emerging labour market, particularly, the direct and indirect association between employment level and foreign direct investment (FDI) in a dynamic economy is non-deniable. Like private and public investments, FDI promotes employment generating agenda and at the same time, sound employment scenario of an economy attracts FDI to inflow. Under this backdrop, the present study attempts to examine whether employment and net FDI inflow have long-run associations and short-run dynamics in South Asian economies for the period 1991–2016. Applying cointegration and Granger causality tests for individual country level and panel cointegration, vector error correction and Wald test on the two standardized variables—employment–population ratio and per capita net FDI inflow—reveal that the two indicators have cointegrating relations for Bangladesh and Nepal and FDI makes a cause to employment generation in Bangladesh only. Further, the panel data exercise shows the existence of long-run or equilibrium relations linking the two indicators without significant error correction results. The Wald test results show that there is short-run causality working from employment ratio to per capita FDI and vice versa. The study, thus, prescribes for ensuring quality environment in the concerned domestic economies of the region so that employment opportunities invite FDI inflow to their territories.

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