The Right in the Good

The largest possible earthquake magnitude based on geographical characteristics for a selected return period is required in earthquake engineering, disaster management, and insurance. Ground-based observations combined with statistical analyses may offer new insights into earthquake prediction. In this study, to investigate the seismic characteristics of different geographical regions in detail, clustering was used to provide earthquake zoning for Mainland China based on the geographical features of earthquake events. In combination with geospatial methods, statistical extreme value models and the right-truncated Gutenberg–Richter model were used to analyze the earthquake magnitudes of Mainland China under both clustering and non-clustering. The results demonstrate that the right-truncated peaks-over-threshold model is the relatively optimal statistical model compared with classical extreme value theory models, the estimated return level of which is very close to that of the geographical-based right-truncated Gutenberg–Richter model. Such statistical models can provide a quantitative analysis of the probability of future earthquake risks in China, and geographical information can be integrated to locate the earthquake risk accurately.

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Extreme value theory in the solar wind: the role of current sheets

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society ◽

10.1093/mnras/stz2668 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 490 (2) ◽

pp. 1879-1893

Author(s):

Tiago F P Gomes ◽

Erico L Rempel ◽

Fernando M Ramos ◽

Suzana S A Silva ◽

Pablo R Muñoz

Keyword(s):

Solar Wind ◽

Power Spectra ◽

Value Theory ◽

Extreme Value ◽

Extreme Value Statistics ◽

Intermittent Turbulence ◽

Current Sheets ◽

Developed Turbulence ◽

The Right

ABSTRACT This article provides observational evidence for the direct relation between current sheets, multifractality and fully developed turbulence in the solar wind. In order to study the role of current sheets in extreme-value statistics in the solar wind, the use of magnetic volatility is proposed. The statistical fits of extreme events are based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) modelling of Cluster 1 magnetic field data. The results reveal that current sheets are the main factor responsible for the behaviour of the tail of the magnetic volatility distributions. In the presence of current sheets, the distributions display a positive shape parameter, which means that the distribution is unbounded in the right tail. Thus the appearance of larger current sheets is to be expected and magnetic reconnection events are more likely to occur. The volatility analysis confirms that current sheets are responsible for the −5/3 Kolmogorov power spectra and the increase in multifractality and non-Gaussianity in solar wind statistics. In the absence of current sheets, the power spectra display a −3/2 Iroshnikov–Kraichnan law. The implications of these findings for the understanding of intermittent turbulence in the solar wind are discussed.

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TellTail: Fast Scoring and Detection of Dense Subgraphs

Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence ◽

10.1609/aaai.v34i04.5835 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 34 (04) ◽

pp. 4150-4157

Author(s):

Bryan Hooi ◽

Kijung Shin ◽

Hemank Lamba ◽

Christos Faloutsos

Keyword(s):

Search Algorithm ◽

Ground Truth ◽

Value Theory ◽

Normal Variation ◽

Dense Subgraph ◽

Network Attacks ◽

Dense Subgraphs ◽

The Right ◽

Almost All ◽

Interesting Structure

Suppose you visit an e-commerce site, and see that 50 users each reviewed almost all of the same 500 products several times each: would you get suspicious? Similarly, given a Twitter follow graph, how can we design principled measures for identifying surprisingly dense subgraphs? Dense subgraphs often indicate interesting structure, such as network attacks in network traffic graphs. However, most existing dense subgraph measures either do not model normal variation, or model it using an Erdős-Renyi assumption - but this assumption has been discredited decades ago. What is the right assumption then? We propose a novel application of extreme value theory to the dense subgraph problem, which allows us to propose measures and algorithms which evaluate the surprisingness of a subgraph probabilistically, without requiring restrictive assumptions (e.g. Erdős-Renyi). We then improve the practicality of our approach by incorporating empirical observations about dense subgraph patterns in real graphs, and by proposing a fast pruning-based search algorithm. Our approach (a) provides theoretical guarantees of consistency, (b) scales quasi-linearly, and (c) outperforms baselines in synthetic and ground truth settings.

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Fuzzy Judgments and Fuzzy Sets

Decision Making Theories and Practices from Analysis to Strategy ◽

10.4018/978-1-4666-1589-2.ch006 ◽

2012 ◽

pp. 100-116 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Thomas L. Saaty ◽

Liem T. Tran

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Set Theory ◽

Fuzzy Set ◽

Fuzzy Set Theory ◽

Fuzzy Theory ◽

Value Theory ◽

Outcome Data ◽

Analytic Hierarchy ◽

The Many ◽

The Right

Using fuzzy set theory has become attractive to many people. However, the many references cited here and in other works, little thought is given to why numbers should be made fuzzy before plunging into the necessary simulations to crank out numbers without giving reason or proof that it works to one’s advantage. In fact it does not often do that, certainly not in decision making. Regrettably, many published papers that use fuzzy set theory presumably to get better answers were not judged thoroughly by reviewers knowledgeable in both fuzzy theory and decision making. Buede and Maxwell (1995), who had done experiments on different ways of making decisions, found that fuzzy does the poorest job of obtaining the right decision as compared with other ways. “These experiments demonstrated that the MAVT (Multiattribute Value Theory) and AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) techniques, when provided with the same decision outcome data, very often identify the same alternatives as ‘best’. The other techniques are noticeably less consistent with the Fuzzy algorithm being the least consistent.”

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An Extreme Value Bayesian Lasso for the Conditional Left and Right Tails

Journal of Agricultural Biological and Environmental Statistics ◽

10.1007/s13253-021-00469-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

M. de Carvalho ◽

S. Pereira ◽

P. Pereira ◽

P. de Zea Bermudez

Keyword(s):

Extreme Rainfall ◽

Value Theory ◽

Extreme Value ◽

Finite Sample ◽

Bayesian Lasso ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Left And Right ◽

Heavy Tailed ◽

The Right ◽

Type Specification

AbstractWe introduce a novel regression model for the conditional left and right tail of a possibly heavy-tailed response. The proposed model can be used to learn the effect of covariates on an extreme value setting via a Lasso-type specification based on a Lagrangian restriction. Our model can be used to track if some covariates are significant for the lower values, but not for the (right) tail—and vice versa; in addition to this, the proposed model bypasses the need for conditional threshold selection in an extreme value theory framework. We assess the finite-sample performance of the proposed methods through a simulation study that reveals that our method recovers the true conditional distribution over a variety of simulation scenarios, along with being accurate on variable selection. Rainfall data are used to showcase how the proposed method can learn to distinguish between key drivers of moderate rainfall, against those of extreme rainfall. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

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Fuzzy Judgments and Fuzzy Sets

International Journal of Strategic Decision Sciences ◽

10.4018/jsds.2010103002 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 23-40 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Thomas L. Saaty ◽

Liem T. Tran

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Set Theory ◽

Fuzzy Set ◽

Fuzzy Set Theory ◽

Fuzzy Theory ◽

Value Theory ◽

Outcome Data ◽

Analytic Hierarchy ◽

The Many ◽

The Right

Using fuzzy set theory has become attractive to many people. However, the many references cited here and in other works, little thought is given to why numbers should be made fuzzy before plunging into the necessary simulations to crank out numbers without giving reason or proof that it works to one’s advantage. In fact it does not often do that, certainly not in decision making. Regrettably, many published papers that use fuzzy set theory presumably to get better answers were not judged thoroughly by reviewers knowledgeable in both fuzzy theory and decision making. Buede and Maxwell (1995), who had done experiments on different ways of making decisions, found that fuzzy does the poorest job of obtaining the right decision as compared with other ways. “These experiments demonstrated that the MAVT (Multiattribute Value Theory) and AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) techniques, when provided with the same decision outcome data, very often identify the same alternatives as ‘best’. The other techniques are noticeably less consistent with the Fuzzy algorithm being the least consistent.”

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Metawartości i spór wokół ochrony środowiska naturalnego

Teoria Polityki ◽

10.4467/25440845tp.21.010.13790 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 5 ◽

pp. 147-159

Author(s):

Przemysław Maj

Keyword(s):

Environmental Protection ◽

Value Theory ◽

The Political ◽

Right Wing ◽

Left Wing ◽

Political Sphere ◽

The Right ◽

Value Model

W przestrzeni debaty publicznej można zaobserwować występowanie antynomicznych postaw dotyczących ochrony środowiska naturalnego. Jedna z nich jest charakterystyczna dla nurtu określanego umownie jako lewicowy, a druga – dla prawicowego. Celem artykułu jest przybliżenie treści i źródeł tych postaw oraz podjęcie próby wyjaśnienia istniejącego na tym gruncie konfliktu politycznego w odniesieniu do psychologicznej teorii wartości Shaloma H. Schwartza. Meta-values and the Conflict over Environmental Protection In the political sphere, two antinomous attitudes towards the nature are permanently present. The first one is characteristic of the left-wing and the second one of the right-wing. The article explains the content and source of these attitudes by referring to Shalom H. Schwartz's psychological value theory (SVT) and the circular meta-value model created on the basis of its adaptation.

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Extremal dependence between temperature and ozone over the continental US

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-18-11927-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 18 (16) ◽

pp. 11927-11948 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Pakawat Phalitnonkiat ◽

Peter G. M. Hess ◽

Mircea D. Grigoriu ◽

Gennady Samorodnitsky ◽

Wenxiu Sun ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Spectral Density ◽

Surface Ozone ◽

The United States ◽

Value Theory ◽

Temperature Extremes ◽

Extremal Dependence ◽

Ozone Distribution ◽

Right Hand ◽

The Us ◽

The Right

Abstract. The co-occurrence of heat waves and pollution events and the resulting high mortality rates emphasize the importance of the co-occurrence of pollution and temperature extremes. Through the use of extreme value theory and other statistical methods, tropospheric surface ozone and temperature extremes and their joint occurrence are analyzed over the United States during the summer months (JJA) using measurements and simulations of the present and future climate and chemistry. Five simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) reference experiment using specified dynamics (REFC1SD) were analyzed: the CESM1 CAM4-chem, CHASER, CMAM, MOCAGE and MRI-ESM1r1 simulations. In addition, a 25-year present-day simulation branched off the CCMI REFC2 simulation in the year 2000 and a 25-year future simulation branched off the CCMI REFC2 simulation in 2100 were analyzed using CESM1 CAM4-chem. The last two simulations differed in their concentration of carbon dioxide (representative of the years 2000 and 2100) but were otherwise identical. In general, regions with relatively high ozone extremes over the US do not occur in regions of relatively high temperature extremes. A new metric, the spectral density, is developed to measure the joint extremal dependence of ozone and temperature by evaluating the spectral dependence of their extremes. While in many areas of the country ozone and temperature are highly correlated overall, the correlation is significantly reduced when examined on the higher end of the distributions. Measures of spectral density are less than about 0.35 everywhere, suggesting that at most only about a third of the time do extreme temperatures coincide with extreme ozone. Two regions of the US have the strongest measured extreme dependence of ozone and temperature: the northeast and the southeast. The simulated future increase in temperature and ozone is primarily due to a shift in their distributions, not to an increase in their extremes. The locations where the right-hand side of the temperature distribution does increase (by up to 30 %) are consistent with locations where soil–moisture feedback may be expected. Future changes in the right-hand side of the ozone distribution range regionally between +20 % and −10 %. The location of future increases in the high-end tail of the ozone distribution are weakly related to those of temperature with a correlation of 0.3. However, the regions where the temperature extremes increase are not located where the extremes in ozone are large, suggesting a muted ozone response.

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A Handbook of Second Order Expansions of Quantile Functions and Asymptotic Record Values Laws

10.16929/srms/2021.003 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Gane Samb Lo ◽

Moumouni Diallo ◽

Modou Ngom

Keyword(s):

Extreme Value Theory ◽

Domain Of Attraction ◽

Rates Of Convergence ◽

Record Values ◽

Value Theory ◽

Extreme Value ◽

Second Order ◽

Record Value ◽

Quantile Functions ◽

The Right

In this monograph, our final objective is to provide second order expansions of quantile functions of as many probability laws as possible. Second order expansions of quantile functions are important tools for finding extreme value domain of attraction of probability laws and for discovering rates of convergence in extreme value theory. We hope that readers will make profit of the results in their works by using the right expansions of quantile functions from the monograph. In that spirit, we apply the quantiles expansions exposed here to deliver the corresponding asymptotic laws of records values. In this first edition, fifty four distributions are concerned. For each of those probability laws, full computations for finding the expansion and the asymptotic record value theory are entirely justified. We will regularly update the handbook by adding probability laws in later editions.

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PENDIDIKAN NILAI AGAMA HINDU DALAM UPACARA MENEK BAJANG DI DESA YEHEMBANG KECAMATAN MENDOYO KABUPATENN JEMBRANA

Jurnal Penelitian Agama Hindu ◽

10.25078/jpah.v1i2.235 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

pp. 188

Author(s):

Ida Ayu Patmisari

Keyword(s):

Religious Education ◽

Descriptive Analysis ◽

Value Theory ◽

General Purpose ◽

The Body ◽

Public Understanding ◽

Art And Culture ◽

Qualitative Descriptive ◽

The Right ◽

Religious Theory

Ceremony Menek Bajang is one type of Manusa Yadnya ceremony performed by Hindus. This ceremony is usually performed when the child has just grown up. But the symptoms that exist in society, not all people know the benefits in carrying out the ceremony Menek Bajang. Though many benefits contained in the ceremony Menek Bajang if people are able to implement in accordance with the rules of literature in the Hindu religion. The problems discussed are: (1) How is the procession of Menek Bajang ceremony in Yehembang Village, Mendoyo Sub-district of Jembrana District, (2) What is the function of Menek Bajang ceremony in Yehembang Village, Mendoyo Sub-district Jembrana District (3) What educational values are contained in the ceremony Menek Bajang in Yeh Embang village, Mendoyo Sub-district, Jembrana District. The special purpose of this research are (1) To know the procession of Menek Bajang ceremony in Yehembang Village, Mendoyo Sub-district, Jembrana District. (2) To know the function of Menek Bajang ceremony in Yehembang Village, Mendoyo Sub-district, Jembrana District. (3) To know the values of Hindu religious education contained in the Menek Bajang ceremony in the village of Yeh Embang Yehembang Mendoyo Sub-district Jembrana District. This research has a general purpose that is to provide knowledge and increase public understanding about the function and value of Hindu religious education in Ceremony Menek Bajang in Yeh Embang village Mendoyo sub-district Jembrana District. So that people are able to apply the results of the research that the authors produce so that people understand about the implementation of Menek Bajang Ceremony implemented by every society. Theories used to analyze this problem are: Religious theory, from Edurkheim, Structural Functionalism theory, from Talcott Parsons, and Value Theory, from Max Scheler. The subject of this research is Hindu society of Yehembang Village, Data Collection Method is Observation of Menek Bajang ceremony, Interview to Hindu leader in Yehembang Village, Documentation Study and Library study. The data have been analyzed by qualitative descriptive analysis method with reduction measures, data presentation and conclusion. The result of the research shows that (1) the procession of Menek Bajang ceremony can be seen from the preparation of upakara / banten which is assisted by the closest relatives, then prepared the banten for praying in Merajan followed by the ceremony of praying which at once Matur Piuning to the ancestors who have been bersentana at Merajan, then continued With ceremony Meprayascite, mebyokaon, natab which aims to Sang Hyang Semara Ratih can bersentana in the body of the child and continued with the show continued continued Nunas wangsupada; (2) the function of Menek Bajang ceremony, is to appeal to Ida Sang Hyang Widhi Wasa / God Almighty in His manifestation as Sang Hyang Smara Ratih, may be pleased to grant holy love to the person who is married and leads to the right path in order to realize good behavior and virtuous, in front of Widyadara - Wdyadari may wish to surrender all knowledge, intelligence, kerupawan, and beauty. The function that can be described is the religious function that is as a form of service Ida Sang Hyang Widhi Wasa because the actual done by humans is the command of God, the function of preservation of art and culture as a means of achieving balance and harmony of life as individuals and community groups, the function of education that is as affirmation of children , that a child who is being married is a child of adolescence or adulthood; (3) educational value Menek Bajang ceremony is Tattwa education of trustworthiness presented to the Lord, namely Susila Education Menek Bajang ceremony according to Hindu literatures literary and religious value visible in the form of offerings that illustrates the power of Widi Wasa Ida Sang Hyang

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