The outlook for long-run economic growth

Author(s):  
Jesper Rangvid

The chapter discusses theory and empirics regarding long-run economic growth. After reviewing the historical facts, the chapter discusses likely scenarios for long-run growth. The chapter also presents the arguments in a heated discussion where one side argues that growth will be tremendously high going forward, but the other argues future growth will be low. The chapter concludes that it does not seem likely that growth will be superhigh going forward. Will it be very low, then? In Advanced Economies, growth will probably be lower than the historical average, but in other parts of the world, growth will most likely be just fine.

Author(s):  
G. Irishin

This publication represents the materials of the regular academic seminar “The current problems of development” conducted by the Center of the problems of development and modernization within IMEMO. The attention of the key speakers and other seminar participants is focused on the comparison of the two BRICS countries – Brazil and Russia. The main emphasis is made on the analysis of the trends of social development. The point is that the quality of human capital determines the quality of economic growth, as well as the country's place in the world in the long run.


Author(s):  
Mohsen Mehrara ◽  
Amin Haghnejad ◽  
Jalal Dehnavi ◽  
Fereshteh Jandaghi Meybodi

Using panel techniques, this paper estimates the causality among economic growth, exports, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows for developing countries over the period of 1980 to 2008. The study indicates that; firstly, there is strong evidence of bidirectional causality between economic growth and FDI inflows. Secondly, the exports-led growth hypothesis is supported by the finding of unidirectional causality running from exports to economic growth in both the short-run and the long-run. Thirdly, export is not Granger caused by economic growth and FDI inflow in either the short run or the long run. On the basis of the obtained results, it is recommended that outward-oriented strategies and policies of attracting FDI be pursued by developing countries to achieve higher rates of economic growth. On the other hand, the countries can increase FDI inflows by stimulating their economic growth.


Author(s):  
Behrooz Shahmoradi ◽  
Enayatallah Najibzadehr

Nowadays, most of the countries in the world mostly concentrate on the flow of FDI, because it has direct relationship with economic development. The present study attempts to make a contribution in this context, by analyzing the existence and nature of causalities, if any, between FDI and economic growth in India since 1990, where growth of economic activities and FDI has been one of the most pronounced. The results indicate that there is a strong correlation between FDI inflows and GDP in India. And also there is unidirectional causal relation between FDI and GDP. Finally as co-integration shows there is no long run relationship between FDI and economic growth in India.


2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 1192-1210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muazu Ibrahim

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the interactive effect of human capital in financial development–economic growth nexus. Relative to the quantity-based measure of enrolment rates, the main aim was to determine how quality of human capital proxied by pupil–teacher ratio influences the relationship between domestic financial sector development and overall economic growth. Design/methodology/approach Data are obtained from the World Development Indicators of the World Bank for 29 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1980–2014. The analyses were conducted using the system generalised method of moments within the endogenous growth framework while controlling for country-specific and time effects. The author also follows Papke and Wooldridge procedure in examining the long-run estimates of the variables of interest. Findings The key finding is that, while both human capital and financial development unconditionally promotes growth in both the short and long run, results from the interactive terms suggest that, irrespective of the measure of finance, financial sector development largely spurs growth on the back of quality human capital. This finding is also confirmed by the marginal and net effects where the interactive effect of pupil–teacher ratio and indicators of finance are consistently huge relative to the enrolment. Statistically, the results are robust to model specification. Practical implications While it is laudable for SSA countries to increase access to education, it is equally more crucial to increase the supply of teachers at the same time improving on the limited teaching and learning materials. Indeed, there are efforts to develop rather low levels of the financial sector owing to its unconditional growth effects. Beyond the direct benefit of finance, however, higher growth effect of finance is conditioned on the quality level of human capital. The outcome of this study should therefore reignite the recognition of the complementarity role of human capital and finance in economic growth process. Originality/value The study makes significant contributions to existing finance–growth literature in so many ways: first, the auhor extend the literature by empirically examining how different measures of human capital shape the finance–economic growth nexus. Through this the author is able to bring a different perspective in the literature highlighting the role of countries’ human capital stock in mediating the impact of financial deepening on economic growth. Second, the author makes a more systematic attempt to evaluate the relative importance of finance and human capital in growth process while controlling for several ancillary variables.


ETIKONOMI ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-22
Author(s):  
Md. Qaiser Alam ◽  
Md. Shabbir Alam

The paper examines the response of poverty reduction based on financial development and economic growth in India. The ARDL and ECM based model techniques analyze the long-run and short-run relationship among the variables in the model. The long-run estimates depict that financial development and economic growth have not significantly impacted poverty reduction and, on the other hand, resulted in injecting inequality and becoming attended to wealthier sections of the society. The short-run estimates show that financial development and economic growth have successfully tried to reduce poverty in India. The results flash a long-run nature of poverty in India and need to designs and formulations of policies that should be instrumental in reducing poverty. Impulse Response Functions' application indicates that poverty reduction will act as a catalyst for further poverty reduction in India.JEL Classification: I32, B26, O40, R15How to Cite:Alam, M. Q., & Alam, M. S. (2021). Financial Development, Economic Growth, and Poverty Reduction in India. Etikonomi: Jurnal Ekonomi, 20(1), 13 – 22. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v20i1.18417.


ETIKONOMI ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hari Nugroho ◽  
N. Haidy Ahmad Pasay ◽  
Arie Damayanti ◽  
Maddaremmeng Andi Panennungi

The studies on human capital and technological progress have given incredible insights on how countries in the world differ from one another. Yet there are more than those two reasons to account for differences among countries. There is a third reason why a country would differ in terms of its economic development progress, namely institutional factors. Hence developing institutional indices would give a deeper explanation than a mere theory. On the other hand, we can corroborate the institutional index with the general theory that low-quality institutions will impact an economy negatively. This study seeks to broaden the understanding of causes of economic growth by incorporating institutional index into a semi-endogenous growth model and finds a relationship between that index with human capital and technological progress


Author(s):  
Nick Ceramella

<strong><strong></strong></strong><p align="LEFT">I<span style="font-family: DejaVuSerifCondensed; font-size: small;">n the Introduction to this article, I deal with the importance of speaking one’s </span>own language as a way to assert one’s identity. Then I pass on to the evolution of the English language from its start as Old English, spoken by only a few thousand Angles and Saxons.</p><p align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: DejaVuSerifCondensed; font-size: small;">I remark how, at fi rst, it was contaminated by thousands of </span>Latin, French and Scandinavian words, of which contemporary English still bears many clear traces, but nobody has ever thought that English was ever in danger of disappearing. By contrast, in the long run, it became the mother tongue of the speakers in comparatively newly founded countries, such as the USA, Australia, and New Zealand, and owing to the spread of the British Empire, it has dramatically increased its appeal becoming the most spoken and infl uential language in the world. Thus, according to some linguists, it has led several languages virtually to the verge of disappearance. Therefore, I argue whether English has really vampirised them, or has simply contributed to make people understand each other, sometimes even in the same country where lots of diff erent tongues are spoken (e.g. Nigeria).</p><p align="LEFT">It is self-evident that English has gradually been taking the role of a common unifying factor in our globalised world. In this view, I envisage a scenario where English may even become the offi cial l anguage o f the E U with the c ontributions &amp; coming, though in varying doses, from all the speakers of the other EU languages.</p>


Author(s):  
Badreddine Boudriki Semlali ◽  
El Amrani Chaker

The world is witnessing important increases in industrial, transport and agriculture activities. This leads to economic growth, but, on the other hand, causes substantial damage in urban air, due to emissions of harmful gases, mainly CO, SO2, NO2 and the Particular Matter (PM). The World Health Organization (WHO) confirms that daily exposure to pollutants causes approximately three million deaths. It is therefore necessary to assess continuously the air quality. In this context, a Java-based application was developed to acquire data from EUMETSAT geostationary and Polar Orbit satellites, through the Mediterranean Dialogue Earth Observatory (MDEO) terrestrial station. This application filters, subsets, processes and visualizes products covering Morocco zone. Significant correlations were found between emissions and industrial activities related to power thermal plants, factories, transportation and ports.


2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 433-458
Author(s):  
Robert C. Shelburne

This paper explores the empirics of long-run economic growth by studying the pattern of growth for every country in the world between 1950 and 2015. Special emphasis is placed on ascertaining how the pattern of growth has changed over the last 65 years and how growth is related to the level of development. The analysis identifies historical time periods when growth stagnated or exploded and the levels of development where growth has a tendency to either stagnate or explode. Studying these growth episodes provides a number of insights into the question as to whether or not there is such a thing as a middle income trap. Although there are economies at every level of development that have stagnated for long periods, this study finds no evidence that this is systematically or uniquely related to middle income economies. An additional point of emphasis of this study is to highlight how the inclusion or exclusion of the former planned economies of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union affect these results; and likewise how China’s exceptional performance affects these results. Generally it is found that because of the size and extraordinary performance (both good and bad) of China and the Economies in Transition (EiT), that excluding them from the sample has a quite significant effect on estimates of global long-run growth and trends regarding growth over time and by income level.


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