Crime Location Choice

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stijn Ruiter
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Location Choice ◽  
Routine Activity ◽  
Spatial Choice ◽  
Pattern Theory ◽  
Crime Pattern Theory ◽  
Random Utility Maximization ◽  
Theoretical Perspectives ◽  
Temporal Aspects ◽  
Crime Pattern

Crime is unevenly distributed in space. This chapter discusses the uneven spatial patterns in crime from an offender decision-making perspective. It describes the main theoretical perspectives in environmental criminology (the rational choice perspective, routine activity approach, and crime pattern theory) and reviews the empirical research with an emphasis on studies that have used a discrete spatial choice framework for analyzing individual crime location choices. The strength of the discrete spatial choice framework, several of its assumptions, and its link with random utility maximization theory are discussed. The chapter concludes with several challenges for future crime location choice research, including challenges regarding temporal aspects of criminal decision making, planned versus opportunistic crimes, and solved versus unsolved crimes.

scholarly journals A framework for estimating crime location choice based on awareness space

Crime Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie Curtis-Ham ◽  
Wim Bernasco ◽  
Oleg N. Medvedev ◽  
Devon Polaschek
Keyword(s):  
Location Choice ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Routine Activity ◽  
Pattern Theory ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Crime Pattern Theory ◽  
Reliable Knowledge ◽  
Crime Pattern ◽  
Behaviour Type ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract This paper extends Crime Pattern Theory, proposing a theoretical framework which aims to explain how offenders’ previous routine activity locations influence their future offence locations. The framework draws on studies of individual level crime location choice and location choice in non-criminal contexts, to identify attributes of prior activities associated with the selection of the location for future crime. We group these attributes into two proposed mechanisms: reliability and relevance. Offenders are more likely to commit crime where they have reliable knowledge that is relevant to the particular crime. The perceived reliability of offenders’ knowledge about a potential crime location is affected by the frequency, recency and duration of their prior activities in that location. Relevance reflects knowledge of a potential crime location’s crime opportunities and is affected by the type of behaviour, type of location and timing of prior activities in that location. We apply the framework to generate testable hypotheses to guide future studies of crime location choice and suggest directions for further theoretical and empirical work. Understanding crime location choice using this framework could also help inform policing investigations and crime prevention strategies.

Using environmental criminology theories to compare ‘youth misuse of fire’ across age groups in New South Wales

2016 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 100-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamarah Pooley ◽  
Claire E Ferguson
Keyword(s):  
Activity Theory ◽  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Routine Activity Theory ◽  
Routine Activity ◽  
Pattern Theory ◽  
Crime Pattern Theory ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Crime Pattern

Youth misuse of fire is a substantive community concern. Despite evidence which indicates youths account for a significant proportion of all deliberately lit fires within Australia, an absence of up-to-date, contextually specific research means the exact scope and magnitude of youth misuse of fire within Australia remains unknown. Despite research suggesting commonalities exist between youth misuse of fire and juvenile offending more broadly, misuse of fire is rarely explained using criminological theory. In light of this gap, a descriptive analysis of youth misuse of fire within New South Wales was performed. Routine Activity Theory and Crime Pattern Theory were tested to explain differences in misuse of fire across age groups. Results suggest these environmental theories offer useful frameworks for explaining youth misuse of fire in New South Wales. It is argued that the Routine Activity Theory and Crime Pattern Theory can be employed to better inform youth misuse of fire policy and prevention efforts.

A Time for a Crime

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 538-568 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabine E. M. van Sleeuwen ◽  
Stijn Ruiter ◽  
Barbara Menting
Keyword(s):  
General Knowledge ◽  
Repeat Offenders ◽  
Spatial Choice ◽  
Pattern Theory ◽  
Crime Pattern Theory ◽  
Time Patterns ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Cyclic Time ◽  
Time Specific ◽  
Crime Pattern

Objectives: This article examines to what extent repeat offenders’ crime location choices are conditional on the timing of the offenses within the week and within the day. Extending crime pattern theory, we argue that offenders acquire time-specific rather than general knowledge of their environment. We hypothesize that offenders are more likely to offend in previously targeted areas at similar than at different days and times. Methods: Data on 12,639 offenses committed by 3,666 repeat offenders in the Netherlands are analyzed using discrete spatial choice models. Results: Offenders are most likely to offend in areas they already targeted before at similar parts of the week and similar times of the day, especially when the previous offense was committed on exactly the same weekend day or weekday and at the same hour of day. Offenders are less likely to return to previously targeted areas at different times of the week and day, and least likely to offend in areas they never targeted before. The effects were stronger for the same than for different types of crime. Conclusions: Assessing cyclic time patterns in crime location choice not only enhances our understanding of spatial criminal decision-making, but could also improve predictive policing methods.

Personalized crime location prediction

2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 422-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
MOHAMMAD A. TAYEBI ◽  
UWE GLÄSSER ◽  
MARTIN ESTER ◽  
PATRICIA L. BRANTINGHAM
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Urban Crime ◽  
Crime Analysis ◽  
Urban Landscapes ◽  
Location Prediction ◽  
Prevention Strategies ◽  
Pattern Theory ◽  
Activity Spaces ◽  
Crime Pattern Theory ◽  
Crime Pattern

Crime reduction and prevention strategies are vital for policymakers and law enforcement to face inevitable increases in urban crime rates as a side effect of the projected growth of urban population by the year 2030. Studies conclude that crime does not occur uniformly across urban landscapes but concentrates in certain areas. This phenomenon has drawn attention to spatial crime analysis, primarily focusing on crime hotspots, areas with disproportionally higher crime density. In this paper, we present CrimeTracer1, a personalized random walk-based approach to spatial crime analysis and crime location prediction outside of hotspots. We propose a probabilistic model of spatial behaviour of known offenders within their activity spaces. Crime Pattern Theory concludes that offenders, rather than venture into unknown territory, frequently select targets in or near places they are most familiar with as part of their activity space. Our experiments on a large real-world crime dataset show that CrimeTracer outperforms all other methods used for location recommendation we evaluate here.

Geoprofiling Terrorism

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Rossmo
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Relationship ◽  
Environmental Criminology ◽  
Improvised Explosive Devices ◽  
Geographic Profiling ◽  
Pattern Theory ◽  
Crime Pattern Theory ◽  
Improvised Explosive ◽  
Explosive Devices ◽  
Crime Pattern

A number of recent research projects have explored applications of geographic profiling to counterterrorism and counterinsurgency. These efforts analyzed geospatial patterns of terrorist cells (e.g., the spatial relationship between safe houses and weapon storage sites), tested the ability of these techniques to locate terrorist bases from minor crimes and seditious graffiti, and examined the utility of geoprofiling for locating preparation sites used by insurgents for improvised explosive devices and rocket attacks. In appropriate cases, geoprofiling models have utility for prioritizing geo-intelligence and identifying logistic bases of terrorist operations. This chapter first discusses environmental criminology and the geography of crime. It then covers the basics of geographic profiling, its various applications, and the role of geospatial intelligence and crime pattern theory in counterterrorism. Finally, it examines the geospatial and temporal patterns of terrorism to show how geoprofiling can be used to analyze seditious graffiti, insurgency attacks, cyberterrorism, and bioterrorism.

A Socioeconomic Edge Effect: Rational Crime in Small Areas of Sharp Socioeconomic Contrast

2020 ◽  
pp. 002242782094500
Author(s):  
Robert Drew Heinzeroth
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Economic Incentive ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Census Block ◽  
Pattern Theory ◽  
Crime Pattern Theory ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Block Groups ◽  
Crime Pattern

Objectives: To determine whether criminogenic “edges,” as defined by crime pattern theory, exist at points of sharp contrast of socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: The study uses a quasi-experimental design with pattern matching logic. A series of negative binomial regression models separately examine five different crimes with an economic incentive as dependent variables, and five crimes without an economic incentive as nonequivalent dependent variables, to determine whether census block groups of predominantly and comparatively higher SES than the wider surrounding area experience greater reported rational crime than would otherwise be expected. Results: The census block groups of comparatively higher SES located within and/or near areas of predominantly lower SES experienced one of the five crimes with an economic incentive, robberies by firearm, 40 percent more frequently than would otherwise be expected. Conclusions: The study’s findings are partially consistent with its hypothesis, which is grounded in crime pattern, rational choice, routine activities, and social disorganization theories. The findings encourage future research that may extend the definition of an “edge” under crime pattern theory as well as research at the intersection of criminological theories.

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