Identifying seasonal spatial patterns of crime in a small northern city

Objectives To explore spatial patterns of crime in a small northern city, and assess the degree of similarity in these patterns across seasons. Methods Calls for police service frequently associated with crime (theft, break and enter, domestic dispute, assault, and neighbor disputes) were acquired for a five year time span (2015–2019) for the city of North Bay, Ontario, Canada (population 50,396). Exploratory data analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics and a kernel density mapping technique. Andresen’s spatial point pattern test (SPPT) was then used to assess the degree of similarity between the seasonal patterns (spring, summer, autumn, winter) for each call type at two different spatial scales (dissemination area and census tract). Results Exploratory data analysis of crime concentration at street segments showed that calls are generally more dispersed through the city in the warmer seasons of spring and summer. Kernel density mapping also shows increases in the intensity of hotspots at these times, but little overall change in pattern. The SPPT does find some evidence for seasonal differences in crime pattern across the city as a whole, specifically for thefts and break and enters. These differences are focused on the downtown core, as well as the outlying rural areas of the city. Conclusions For the various crime types examined, preliminary analysis, kernel density mapping, and the SPPT found differences in crime pattern consistent with the routine activities theory.

Crime Pattern Analysis, Visualization and Pridiction Using Data Mining

Crime against women these days has become problem of every nation around the globe many countries are trying to curb this problem. Preventive are taken to reduce the increasing number of cases of crime against women. A huge amount of data set is generated every year on the basis of reporting of crime. This data can prove very useful in analyzing and predicting crime and help us prevent the crime to some extent. Crime analysis is an area of vital importance in police department. Study of crime data can help us analyze crime pattern, inter-related clues& important hidden relations between the crimes. That is why data mining can be great aid to analyze, visualize and predict crime using crime data set. Classification and correlation of data set makes it easy to understand similarities & dissimilarities amongst the data objects. We group data objects using clustering technique. Dataset is classified on the basis of some predefined condition. Here grouping is done according to various types of crimes against women taking place in different states and cities of India. Crime mapping will help the administration to plan strategies for prevention of crime, further using data mining technique data can be predicted and visualized in various form in order to provide better understanding of crime patterns.

Route Generation Heuristics for the Automated Creation of Hot Spot Policing Patrol Routes

Hot spot policing is a form of targeted police patrol deployment for decreasing crime. For hot spot policing to be effective, it requires analysis of crime data to identify the specific locations where crime is concentrated and create suitable patrol routes. The creation of hot spot policing patrol routes is a manual task that police officers perform, requiring skills and knowledge about hot spot policing and crime pattern analysis. This can limit the use of hot spot policing where these skills and knowledge are not available, and where they are available, the creation of patrol routes can be a time-consuming task. In this paper, we introduce two computational route generation heuristics that automate creating hot spot policing patrol routes. Both approaches identify the specific locations where crime concentrates and then use different methods to create the patrol routes. We compare the performance of each approach using metrics associated with effective patrol route creation and through visual inspection. We conclude that the heuristics we introduce provide an accurate means for creating hot spot policing patrol routes, which can support greater and improved use of hot spot policing as an effective type of intervention for decreasing crime.

A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS ON THE CRIME PATTERN IMPLEMENTATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Crime is a significant issue, where our management has given the full focus. Efficient analysis of various remote detecting methods is refined for crime examination. This exploration work proposes the use of short detecting systems to concentrate on Crime with the assistance of research devices. This paper extends a sign of the devices and procedures executed in the Crime with effective innovations dependent on remote detecting. The advances in doing the device have great temptation in the current changing crime circumstance. They can be used as a predominant device by law authorisation for crime investigation, recognition and prevention.

Supervised and Unsupervised Machine Learning Methodologies for Crime Pattern Analysis

Crime is a grave problem that affects all countries in the world. The level of crime in a country has a big impact on its economic growth and quality of life of citizens. In this paper, we provide a survey of trends of supervised and unsupervised machine learning methods used for crime pattern analysis. We use a spatiotemporal dataset of crimes in San Francisco, CA to demonstrate some of these strategies for crime analysis. We use classification models, namely, Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Naive Bayes to predict crime types such as Larceny, Theft, etc. and propose model optimization strategies. Further, we use a graph based unsupervised machine learning technique called core periphery structures to analyze how crime behavior evolves over time. These methods can be generalized to use for different counties and can be greatly helpful in planning police task forces for law enforcement and crime prevention.

Right place, right time? Making crime pattern theory time-specific

Objectives Crime pattern theory and the related empirical research have remained rather a-temporal, as if the timing of routine activities and crime plays no role. Building on previous geography of crime research, we extend crime pattern theory and propose that an offender’s spatial knowledge acquired during daily routine activities is not equally applicable to all times of day. Methods We put this extended theory to a first empirical test by applying a discrete spatial choice model to detailed information from the Netherlands on 71 offences committed by 30 offenders collected through a unique online survey instrument. The offenders reported on their most important activity nodes and offence locations over the past year, as well as the specific times they regularly visited these locations. Results The results show that almost 40% of the offences are committed within the neighbourhoods of offenders’ activity nodes, increasing to 85% when including first-, second- and third-order neighbourhoods. Though not statistically significant in our small sample, the results further suggest that offenders are more likely to commit crime in neighbourhoods they have regularly visited at the same time of day than in neighbourhoods they have regularly visited at different times of day. Conclusion Our extension of crime pattern theory is only tentatively supported. We argue for replication research with larger samples before any firm conclusions are warranted.

Crime Pattern Theory

A broad understanding of crime requires explanations for both the origins of individual and group criminal propensity and when and where criminal events occur. Crime pattern theory provides explanations for the variation in the distribution of criminal events in space and time given a range of different propensities. In the organization of their everyday lives, both occasional and persistent criminals spend most of their time engaged in the same legitimate everyday activities as everyone else. The location of criminal events in space–time are shaped by these everyday activities and the specific criminal’s activity. Occasional and persistent offenders develop activity spaces and awareness spaces. The shape and dynamics of these spaces is influenced by the structures of human settlements that channel and limit movement patterns in time and space. These structures include the built environments and the socioeconomic and cultural environments in which people live, work, or go to school, and in which they spend their social, entertainment, and shopping time. Crime pattern theory utilizes the major components of the built and social environment—activity nodes, paths between nodes, neighborhoods and neighborhood edges, and the socioeconomic backcloth—in conjunction with the routine movements of the population in general to understand crime generator and crime attractor locations and the formation of repeat areas of offending for individuals and groups of offenders as well as more aggregate crime hot spots and cold spots. This information is translated into a geometry of crime that describes the journeys to crime by individual criminal offenders and groups of offenders and their victims or targets. Crime pattern theory explains the process of criminal target search, suggests strategies for crime reduction, and describes potential displacements of criminal events in space and time following changes in the suitability of targets or target locations at particular places and specific times.