Path Dependence

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle Hegmon
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
General Level ◽  
Historical Contingency ◽  
Difficult Decision ◽  
Critical Junctures ◽  
Potential Applications ◽  
Path Dependent ◽  
Historical Sequences ◽  
Lock In

Path dependence concepts, thus far, have seen little application in archaeology, but they have great potential. At a general level, these concepts provide tools for theorizing historical sequences, such as patterns of settlement on a landscape and divergent historical traditions. Potential applications include issues of historical contingency in the late Rio Grande, settlement in the Mesa Verde region, and divergent trajectories in the post-Chaco period. Specific concepts from path dependence theory, including lock-in and critical junctures, are illustrated by an analysis of the growth of Hohokam irrigation, which exhibited a path-dependent trajectory. As archaeological study of path dependence builds awareness of the importance of decision-making on the future, it contributes to difficult decision-making in today’s world.

scholarly journals A Model of Path-Dependence in Decisions over Multiple Propositions

2004 ◽  
Vol 98 (3) ◽  
pp. 495-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
CHRISTIAN LIST
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Propositional Logic ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Strategic Voting ◽  
Sequential Decision ◽  
Sequential Decisions ◽  
Sequential Decision Process ◽  
Path Dependent ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient

I model sequential decisions over multiple interconnected propositions and investigate path-dependence in such decisions. The propositions and their interconnections are represented in propositional logic. A sequential decision process is path-dependent if its outcome depends on the order in which the propositions are considered. Assuming that earlier decisions constrain later ones, I prove three main results: First, certain rationality violations by the decision-making agent—individual or group—are necessary and sufficient for path-dependence. Second, under some conditions, path-dependence is unavoidable in decisions made by groups. Third, path-dependence makes decisions vulnerable to strategic agenda setting and strategic voting. I also discuss escape routes from path-dependence. My results are relevant to discussions on collective consistency and reason-based decision-making, focusing not only on outcomes, but also on underlying reasons, beliefs, and constraints.

Chronic Instability and the Limits of Path Dependence

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 976-991 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Bernhard
Keyword(s):  
Federal Republic ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Historical Analysis ◽  
Historical Institutionalism ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Chronic Instability ◽  
Rapid Succession ◽  
Critical Junctures ◽  
Comparative Historical Analysis ◽  
Lock In

Historical institutionalism challenged older forms of comparative historical analysis by moving away from purely structural explanations of historical outcomes. Instead it posited that there were critical junctures in which actors chose between institutional alternatives, which in turn led to path dependence. I examine a phenomenon neglected both by historical institutionalism and older forms of historical analysis—chronic instability. Instead of institutional lock-in, some junctures lead to periods of instability in which a series of regimes replace each other in rapid succession. Three different causal mechanisms that routinely contribute to chronic instability—external shocks, changing configurations of actors, and disjuncture between the logic of change and mechanisms of reproduction—are explored in depth. The plausibility of the theory is illustrated by an examination of regime instability in Germany from the collapse of the Empire in 1918 through the founding of the Federal Republic in 1949.

scholarly journals Policy and institutional enablers of public–private partnerships in the electricity sector in Uganda: a multi-level and path dependence perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-70
Author(s):  
Moses Onyoin ◽  
Christopher Bovis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Institutional Development ◽  
Electricity Sector ◽  
Public Private Partnerships ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Role Of The State ◽  
The Status ◽  
Path Dependent

PurposeThis paper explains the evident disproportionality in the levels of adoption of the modality of public–private partnerships (PPPs) in Uganda by tracing the peculiar preconditions and enablers of the model's relative high adoption in the electricity sector.Design/methodology/approachKey conceptual suggestions from historical institutionalism (HI), critical juncture and path dependence are used to orient the data collection and analysis. The direct experiences and perceptions of key informants involved in policy, regulation and operations in the electricity sector are thematically analyzed.FindingsThe primacy of specific policy, institutional decisions and actions sequentially undertaken at the international, national and sectorial levels in shaping the conceivability and possibility of PPP modality is foregrounded. In particular, international advisory for the changed role of the state and the government's subsequent decision to enact and reenact specific institutional frameworks at the national and sectorial levels created important disruptions to the status quo and paved a new and relatively stable institutional path conducive for private sector participation.Research limitations/implicationsTheoretically, the paper demonstrates the ability and power of HI to support the exploration and framing of multilevel and path-dependent explanations of institutional development and policy adoption. Practically, suggestions in terms of policy, legal and regulatory enablers for the adoption of PPP are made to shape practitioners' decision-makingPractical implicationsPractically, suggestions in terms of policy, legal and regulatory enablers for the adoption of PPP are made to shape practitioners' decision-making.Originality/valueThe importance of considering factor combinations and sequences in explaining the emergence, adoption and proliferation of public policy instruments and phenomena is underscored. In addition, the discourse on PPPs is moved beyond rationalization on how to even out their adoption (and subsequently the associated benefits) across sectors.

Path Dependency in Foreign Policy

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anika C. Leithner ◽  
Kyle M. Libby
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Foreign Policy Analysis ◽  
Physical Sciences ◽  
Basic Assumptions ◽  
Critical Junctures ◽  
The Social ◽  
Path Dependent

Path dependence has been employed more frequently in the field of foreign policy analysis, though it is still an emerging framework. The roots of path dependence are traced from the physical sciences and economics to the social sciences, and finally, foreign policy. The basic assumptions of path dependence are summarized, including the role of critical junctures, increased returns, and policy legacies that are produced and reproduced by a variety of causal mechanisms. The preferred methods employed by path dependence scholars are briefly outlined; framework’s applicability to the study of politics is addressed, and the major critiques of path dependence are reviewed. This leads to the general conclusion that despite conceptual and methodological challenges in the area of foreign policy, there is definite “value added” in path-dependent approaches.

scholarly journals Delineation of the Path Dependence in Development of Central Business Districts (CBD) in Turkey's Kayseri

2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-64
Author(s):  
Neşe Yılmaz Bakır
Keyword(s):  
Urban Development ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Central Business District ◽  
Critical Junctures ◽  
Central Business Districts ◽  
Development Processes ◽  
Path Dependent ◽  
Business District

This article examines the demolition-oriented restructuring relationship during urban development processes in the case study of the central business district in Kayseri (Turkey) by systematically analysing externally-conditioned events and trajectories. This transformation, characterised by changing periods of development and the analysis of the actors who are particularly active in the process, is explored through the socio-spatial developments in Kayseri. In this study, this has been expounded through the concept of path dependence, which states that current conditions are more dependent on past events and those past events lead to today's results. The decisions on the historically contingent periods and three critical junctures identified in the study were found to have been maintained until the next stage and strengthened by following the path-dependent tendency.

scholarly journals The Study of Critical Junctures: Theory, Narrative, and Counterfactuals in Historical Institutionalism

2007 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 341-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Capoccia ◽  
R. Daniel Kelemen
Keyword(s):  
Path Dependence ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Historical Institutionalism ◽  
Counterfactual Reasoning ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Narrative Methods ◽  
Critical Junctures ◽  
Path Dependent ◽  
Dependent Processes ◽  
Causal Logic

The causal logic behind many arguments in historical institutionalism emphasizes the enduring impact of choices made during critical junctures in history. These choices close off alternative options and lead to the establishment of institutions that generate self-reinforcing path-dependent processes. Despite the theoretical and practical importance of critical junctures, however, analyses of path dependence often devote little attention to them. The article reconstructs the concept of critical junctures, delimits its range of application, and provides methodological guidance for its use in historical institutional analyses. Contingency is the key characteristic of critical junctures, and counterfactual reasoning and narrative methods are necessary to analyze contingent factors and their impact. Finally, the authors address specific issues relevant to both cross-sectional and longitudinal comparisons of critical junctures.

Time in International Organizations and International Organizations in Time

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugénia C. Heldt
Keyword(s):  
International Organizations ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Time Pressure ◽  
Temporal Dimension ◽  
Incremental Change ◽  
Critical Junctures ◽  
Pressure Time ◽  
Multilateral System ◽  
System Time ◽  
Over Time

Time plays a central role in international organizations (IOs). Interactions among actors are embedded in a temporal dimension, and actors use formal and informal time rules, time discourses, and time pressure to obtain concessions from their counterparts. By the same token, legacies and innovations within and outside IOs can be examined as a dynamic process evolving over time. Against this background, this chapter has a twofold aim. First, it examines how actors use time in IOs with a particular focus on multilateral negotiations to justify their actions. Drawing on international relations studies and negotiation analysis, this piece explores six different dimensions of time in the multilateral system: time pressure, time discourse, time rules, time costs, time horizons, and time as a resource. Second, this chapter delineates the evolution of IOs over time with the focus on innovations that emerge to adapt their institutional system to new political and economic circumstances. This piece looks particularly at endogenous and exogenous changes in IOs, recurring to central concepts used by historical institutionalism, including path dependence, critical junctures, and sequencing. This allows us to map patterns of incremental change, such as displacement, conversion, drift, and layering.

Path Dependence and QWERTY's Lock-In: Toward a Veblenian Interpretation

2011 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 457-464 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Hall ◽  
Iciar Dominguez Lacasa ◽  
Jutta Günther
Keyword(s):  
Path Dependence ◽  
Lock In

scholarly journals Path-dependent institutions drive alternative stable states in conservation

2018 ◽  
Vol 116 (2) ◽  
pp. 689-694 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward W. Tekwa ◽  
Eli P. Fenichel ◽  
Simon A. Levin ◽  
Malin L. Pinsky
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Resources ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Alternative Stable States ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Stable States ◽  
Alternative Stable State ◽  
Important Challenge ◽  
Quantitative Analyses ◽  
Path Dependent

Understanding why some renewable resources are overharvested while others are conserved remains an important challenge. Most explanations focus on institutional or ecological differences among resources. Here, we provide theoretical and empirical evidence that conservation and overharvest can be alternative stable states within the same exclusive-resource management system because of path-dependent processes, including slow institutional adaptation. Surprisingly, this theory predicts that the alternative states of strong conservation or overharvest are most likely for resources that were previously thought to be easily conserved under optimal management or even open access. Quantitative analyses of harvest rates from 217 intensely managed fisheries supports the predictions. Fisheries’ harvest rates also showed transient dynamics characteristic of path dependence, as well as convergence to the alternative stable state after unexpected transitions. This statistical evidence for path dependence differs from previous empirical support that was based largely on case studies, experiments, and distributional analyses. Alternative stable states in conservation appear likely outcomes for many cooperatively managed renewable resources, which implies that achieving conservation outcomes hinges on harnessing existing policy tools to navigate transitions.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document