Borrowing for Growth: Big Pushes and Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis-Felipe Zanna ◽  
Edward F Buffie ◽  
Rafael Portillo ◽  
Andrew Berg ◽  
Catherine Pattillo
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Debt Contracts ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
Big Push ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Framework

AbstractThe paper evaluates big push borrowing-and-investment programs in a new model-based framework of debt sustainability that is explicitly designed for policy analysis. The new framework is grounded in a fully-articulated, dynamic macroeconomic model. It allows for financing schemes that mix concessional, external commercial, and domestic debt, while taking into account the impact of public investment on growth and constraints on the speed and magnitude of fiscal adjustment. Supplementing concessional loans with nonconcessional borrowing in world capital markets is generally a high-risk, high-return strategy. It may greatly enhance the prospects for debt sustainability or lead to spectacular failure; much depends on the fine details governing debt contracts, the dynamics of growth, and the speed of fiscal adjustment.

scholarly journals Rising External Debt Burden, Increase Financial Stability Risk; the Need for Fiscal Adjustment in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 33-43
Author(s):  
Adamgbo, Suka ◽  
Kenn-Ndubuisi, Juliet Ifechi* ◽  
Toby, J. Adolphus
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Fiscal Responsibility ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
The Imf

The study examines the rising external debt burden, increased financial stability risk; the need for fiscal adjustment. Given that economic sustainability is the prime desire of every economy and considering the continuous accumulation of external borrowings. Our main focus is to investigate the fiscal vulnerability and debt sustainability position of the Nigerian economy. To find out whether the country’s present fiscal position is sustainable? Has the substantial external borrowings in the last two decades of uninterrupted democratic rule significantly supported the growth path of the Nigeria economy? If not, there is need for fiscal adjustment. Our period of investigation spans from 1999 to 2019. Data estimated using the time series based from CBN, Federal Ministry of Finance, IMF/World Bank publications. In analyzing the country’s debt burden/vulnerability, we applied the IMF debt burden indicators under the debt sustainability framework (DSF) for low income countries. Using the descriptive statistic, the study also employed the regression analysis technique to exploits the cause and effect relationship between the nation’s present debt stock, debt servicing obligation and the nominal as well the real economic growth rate. Our findings revealed the following; (i) using the percentile analysis and comparing it with the major debt sustainability bench marks under the IMF/Work Bank specifications, the country’s debt sustainability position was very negligible. The Nigerian situation shows debt sustainability position that fell below the bench marks (ii) the results of our finding also indicates a negative statistically significant relationship that exists between debt stock, servicing payment and both the nominal and real GDP. Based on our results, we concluded that the present fiscal vulnerability position of the country if not checked or curtailed through fiscal adjustment would amount to increasing the financial stability risk capable of causing deterioration in the functioning of the economy. We therefore, suggest amongst other measures that all should be aimed at improving and or enhancing monetary restrains, debt contraction restrains as well evolving and improving existing rules toward achieving fiscal responsibility and discipline.

scholarly journals The Clean pilot study: evaluation of an environmental hygiene intervention bundle in three Tanzanian hospitals

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Giorgia Gon ◽  
Abdunoor M. Kabanywanyi ◽  
Petri Blinkhoff ◽  
Simon Cousens ◽  
Stephanie J. Dancer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pilot Study ◽  
Study Design ◽  
Low Income ◽  
High Volume ◽  
Surface Cleaning ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Training Period ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Environmental Hygiene ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Healthcare associated infections (HAI) are estimated to affect up to 15% of hospital inpatients in low-income countries (LICs). A critical but often neglected aspect of HAI prevention is basic environmental hygiene, particularly surface cleaning and linen management. TEACH CLEAN is an educational intervention aimed at improving environmental hygiene. We evaluated the effectiveness of this intervention in a pilot study in three high-volume maternity and newborn units in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Methods This study design prospectively evaluated the intervention as a whole, and offered a before-and-after comparison of the impact of the main training. We measured changes in microbiological cleanliness [Aerobic Colony Counts (ACC) and presence of Staphylococcus aureus] using dipslides, and physical cleaning action using gel dots. These were analysed with descriptive statistics and logistic regression models. We used qualitative (focus group discussions, in-depth interviews, and semi-structured observation) and quantitative (observation checklist) tools to measure why and how the intervention worked. We describe these findings across the themes of adaptation, fidelity, dose, reach and context. Results Microbiological cleanliness improved during the study period (ACC pre-training: 19%; post-training: 41%). The odds of cleanliness increased on average by 1.33 weekly during the pre-training period (CI = 1.11–1.60), and by 1.08 (CI = 1.03–1.13) during the post-training period. Cleaning action improved only in the pre-training period. Detection of S. aureus on hospital surfaces did not change substantially. The intervention was well received and considered feasible in this context. The major pitfalls in the implementation were the limited number of training sessions at the hospital level and the lack of supportive supervision. A systems barrier to implementation was lack of regular cleaning supplies. Conclusions The evaluation suggests that improvements in microbiological cleanliness are possible using this intervention and can be sustained. Improved microbiological cleanliness is a key step on the pathway to infection prevention in hospitals. Future research should assess whether this bundle is cost-effective in reducing bacterial and viral transmission and infection using a rigorous study design.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in children treated with immunosuppressive medication for kidney diseases

2020 ◽  
pp. archdischild-2020-320616
Author(s):  
Matko Marlais ◽  
Tanja Wlodkowski ◽  
Samhar Al-Akash ◽  
Petr Ananin ◽  
Varun Kumar Bandi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Immunosuppressive Therapy ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Kidney Diseases ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Reference Network ◽  
Immunosuppressive Medication ◽  
Immunosuppressive Medications ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundChildren are recognised as at lower risk of severe COVID-19 compared with adults, but the impact of immunosuppression is yet to be determined. This study aims to describe the clinical course of COVID-19 in children with kidney disease taking immunosuppressive medication and to assess disease severity.MethodsCross-sectional study hosted by the European Rare Kidney Disease Reference Network and supported by the European, Asian and International paediatric nephrology societies. Anonymised data were submitted online for any child (age <20 years) with COVID-19 taking immunosuppressive medication for a kidney condition. Study recruited for 16 weeks from 15 March 2020 to 05 July 2020. The primary outcome was severity of COVID-19.Results113 children were reported in this study from 30 different countries. Median age: 13 years (49% male). Main underlying reasons for immunosuppressive therapy: kidney transplant (47%), nephrotic syndrome (27%), systemic lupus erythematosus (10%). Immunosuppressive medications used include: glucocorticoids (76%), mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) (54%), tacrolimus/ciclosporine A (58%), rituximab/ofatumumab (11%). 78% required no respiratory support during COVID-19 illness, 5% required bi-level positive airway pressure or ventilation. Four children died; all deaths reported were from low-income countries with associated comorbidities. There was no significant difference in severity of COVID-19 based on gender, dialysis status, underlying kidney condition, and type or number of immunosuppressive medications.ConclusionsThis global study shows most children with a kidney disease taking immunosuppressive medication have mild disease with SARS-CoV-2 infection. We therefore suggest that children on immunosuppressive therapy should not be more strictly isolated than children who are not on immunosuppressive therapy.

Foreign capital inflows and economic growth: the experience of low-income countries in Sub Saharan Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Atif Awad
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Foreign Capital Inflows ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the long-run impact of selected foreign capital inflows, including aid, remittances, foreign direct investment (FDI), trade and debt, on the economic growth of 21 low-income countries in the Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) region, during the period 1990–2018. Design/methodology/approach To obtain this objective and for robust analysis, a parametric approach, which was dynamic ordinary least squares, and a non-parametric technique, which was fully modified ordinary least squares, were used. Findings The results of both models confirmed that, in the long run, trade and aid affected the growth rate of the per capita income in these countries in a positive way. However, external debt seemed to have an adverse influence on such growth. Originality/value First, this is the initial study that has addressed this matter across a homogenous group of countries in the SSA region. Second, while most of the previous studies regarding capital inflows into the SSA region have focused on the impact of only one or two aspects of such foreign capital inflows on growth, the present study, instead, examined the impact of five types of foreign capital inflows (aid, remittances, FDI, trade and debt).

scholarly journals Poultry farmer response to disease outbreaks in smallholder farming systems

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexis Delabouglise ◽  
Nguyen Thi Le Thanh ◽  
Huynh Thi Ai Xuyen ◽  
Benjamin Nguyen-Van-Yen ◽  
Phung Ngoc Tuyet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Avian Influenza ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Farm Size ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Flock Size ◽  
Smallholder Farming ◽  
Southern Vietnam ◽  
Poultry Farms ◽  
The Impact

AbstractAvian influenza outbreaks have been occurring on smallholder poultry farms in Asia for two decades. Farmer responses to these outbreaks can slow down or accelerate virus transmission. We used a longitudinal survey of 53 small-scale chicken farms in southern Vietnam to investigate the impact of outbreaks with disease-induced mortality on harvest rate, vaccination, and disinfection behaviors. We found that in small broiler flocks (≤16 birds/flock) the estimated probability of harvest was 56% higher when an outbreak occurred, and 214% higher if an outbreak with sudden deaths occurred in the same month. Vaccination and disinfection were strongly positively correlated with flock size and farm size, respectively. Small-scale farmers – the overwhelming majority of poultry producers in low-income countries – tend to rely on rapid sale of birds to mitigate losses from diseases. As depopulated birds are sent to markets or trading networks, this reactive behavior has the potential to enhance onward transmission.One sentence summaryA cohort study of fifty three small-scale poultry farms in southern Vietnam reveals that when outbreaks occur with symptoms similar to highly pathogenic avian influenza, farmers respond by sending their chickens to market early, potentially exacerbating the effects of the outbreak.

scholarly journals Somalia

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (86) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Debt Relief ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Heavily Indebted Poor Countries ◽  
Hipc Initiative

This paper presents an assessment of Somalia’s eligibility for assistance under the enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. The macroeconomic framework reflects the policy framework underlying the proposed three-year Fund-supported program. The debt relief analysis (DRA) remains largely unchanged, but some of the underlying debt data has been updated to reflect new information from creditors. In addition, this paper presents an assessment of debt management capacity in Somalia and a full Debt Sustainability Analysis under the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries. The DRA reveals that, after traditional debt relief mechanisms are applied, Somalia’s debt burden expressed as the net present value of debt-to-exports ratio is 344.2 percent at the end of December 2018—significantly above the HIPC Initiative threshold. Despite the challenging environment, progress on reform and policy implementation has been good and sustained reforms have translated into economic results. In addition to the coordinated support from the World Bank and the IMF, reforms have been supported by other development partners.

Modeling African Economies

2015 ◽  
pp. 369-392
Author(s):  
Andrew Berg ◽  
Shu-Chun S. Yang ◽  
Luis-Felipe Zanna
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Capital Mobility ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
International Capital Mobility ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Balance Sheet Effects ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

This chapter presents a stylized framework for modeling African economies using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. We introduce several features relevant to low-income countries, including a large population without access to financial markets, restricted international capital mobility, low governance quality, and explicit central bank balance-sheet effects. The calibrated model can be useful in addressing important macroeconomic policy issues in many African economies. The applications presented here include (i) reserve accumulation policy responses to aid surges, (ii) government spending, financing schemes, and fiscal multipliers, (iii) management of natural resource revenues, and (iv) public investment surges and debt sustainability.

Comparative Analysis of Mobile Pain Management Applications in Developed versus Developing Countries (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilson Mupfururirwa ◽  
Victoria Nembaware ◽  
Jack Morrice ◽  
Khuthala Mnika ◽  
Gaston Kuzamunu Mazandu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pain Management ◽  
Uniform Distribution ◽  
Mobile Health ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Cochrane Review ◽  
High Income ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
App Store ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND The impact of mobile phones and their applications in healthcare (mobile health) is well established for a range of diseases and cross-cutting complications, such as pain. While numerous mobile health (mHealth) pain interventions have been established, an evaluation of their prevalence, adequacy and distribution remains limited. OBJECTIVE This study aims at reviewing and comparing current pain management mHealth tools in high- versus low-income countries. METHODS A literature and application (app) store search was conducted in May 2021 using combinations of the following keywords: “pain management”, “pain”, “mobile health”, “telemedicine”, and “app”. Literature searches were conducted in PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Review Library, and Google scholar. App store searches were conducted in Google Play and Apple App Store. Data characteristics descriptive analysis was performed using R software to summarize different datasets and compute p-values (P) for testing the significance of different hypotheses with the significance level set to 0.05. RESULTS The search identified 40 publications (literature search) and 230 mHealth applications (app store search), revealing a non uniform distribution of search categories (χ2= 133.7, P < 0.004) with a ratio approximating 1:6 (OR = 5.730, 95%CI:3.745-8.909, P < 0.004). About 86.7% of these 270 applications (apps) are from high-income countries, showing a statistically significant non uniform distribution of country categories: high- and low-income (χ2= 145.2, P < 0.004) approximating the theoretical distribution of a 7:1 ratio (OR = 6.476, 95%CI:4.180-10.222, P < 0.004). Moreover, there is no significant difference in the proportion of search categories between country categories ( χ2= 0.113, P = 0.737) and the difference in pain app prevalence in high- versus low-income countries is not statistically significant. Finally, we have observed that pain-tracking apps are significantly more prevalent in developed countries in comparison to low-income countries. CONCLUSIONS As expected, pain management app prevalence is higher in high-income countries. However, more research is required to readily comprehend the effectiveness of these apps.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document