Modeling African Economies

2015 ◽  
pp. 369-392
Author(s):  
Andrew Berg ◽  
Shu-Chun S. Yang ◽  
Luis-Felipe Zanna
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Capital Mobility ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
International Capital Mobility ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Balance Sheet Effects ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

This chapter presents a stylized framework for modeling African economies using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. We introduce several features relevant to low-income countries, including a large population without access to financial markets, restricted international capital mobility, low governance quality, and explicit central bank balance-sheet effects. The calibrated model can be useful in addressing important macroeconomic policy issues in many African economies. The applications presented here include (i) reserve accumulation policy responses to aid surges, (ii) government spending, financing schemes, and fiscal multipliers, (iii) management of natural resource revenues, and (iv) public investment surges and debt sustainability.

Borrowing for Growth: Big Pushes and Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis-Felipe Zanna ◽  
Edward F Buffie ◽  
Rafael Portillo ◽  
Andrew Berg ◽  
Catherine Pattillo
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Debt Contracts ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
Big Push ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Framework

AbstractThe paper evaluates big push borrowing-and-investment programs in a new model-based framework of debt sustainability that is explicitly designed for policy analysis. The new framework is grounded in a fully-articulated, dynamic macroeconomic model. It allows for financing schemes that mix concessional, external commercial, and domestic debt, while taking into account the impact of public investment on growth and constraints on the speed and magnitude of fiscal adjustment. Supplementing concessional loans with nonconcessional borrowing in world capital markets is generally a high-risk, high-return strategy. It may greatly enhance the prospects for debt sustainability or lead to spectacular failure; much depends on the fine details governing debt contracts, the dynamics of growth, and the speed of fiscal adjustment.

Multilateral governance will advance despite obstacles

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
System Reform ◽  
Government Ownership ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Host Government ◽  
Risk Insurance

Subject Reforming the multilateral development banks. Significance The multilateral development bank (MDB) system has resisted pressure on the international order from US nationalism, but the multiplication of MDBs has considerably reduced their collective effectiveness. This fragmentation is preventing them from adapting to global challenges and harnessing private capital for development. The World Bank spring meeting will consider the proposals that the G20 is exploring. Most do not entail institutional change, but others could pave the way for significant reforms. Impacts The ongoing debate about the World Bank’s need for a capital increase will be peripheral to the larger discussion on MDB system reform. If implemented, a cross-MDB risk insurance platform would create a one-stop shop for investors and opportunities for private reinsurers. System-wide securitisation would create new asset classes and expand opportunities for institutional investors. In-country MDB coordination platforms would boost host government ownership of projects in middle-income and stable low-income countries. Estimates suggest that one dollar of capital paid into MDBs can translate into 50 dollars of public investment if allocated effectively.

Monetary Policy in Low-Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo Baldini ◽  
Jaromir Benes ◽  
Andrew Berg ◽  
Mai C. Dao ◽  
Rafael Portillo
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Risk Appetite ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Impact

The authors develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a banking sector to analyse the impact of the financial crisis in developing countries and the role of the monetary policy response, with an application to Zambia. The crisis is interpreted as a combination of three related shocks: a worsening in the terms of the trade, an increase in the country’s risk premium, and a decrease in the risk appetite of local banks. Model simulations broadly match the path of the economy during this period. The model-based analysis reveals that the initial policy response contributed to the domestic impact of the crisis by further tightening financial conditions. The authors derive policy implications for central banks, and for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modelling of monetary policy, in low-income countries.

scholarly journals Belonging home: capabilities, belonging and mental health recovery in low resourced settings

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Cappo ◽  
Brian Mutamba ◽  
Fiona Verity
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Capabilities Approach ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
Intervention Protocol ◽  
Balanced Model ◽  
Hospital To Home

Abstract There are significant barriers to the development of a ‘balanced model’ of mental health in low-income countries. These include gaps in the evidence base on effective responses to severe mental health issues and what works in the transition from hospital to home, and a low public investment in primary and community care. These limitations were the drivers for the formation of the non-government organization, YouBelong Uganda (YBU), which works to contribute to the implementation of a community-based model of mental health care in Uganda. This paper overviews an intervention protocol developed by YBU, which is a combined model of parallel engagement with the national mental hospital in Kampala, Uganda, movement of ‘ready for discharge’ patients back to their families and communities, and community development. The YBU programme is theoretically underpinned by a capabilities approach together with practical application of a concept of ‘belonging’. It is an experiment in implementation with hopes that it may be a positive step towards the development of an effective model in Uganda, which may be applicable in other countries. Finally, we discuss the value in joining ideas from social work, sociology, philosophy, public health and psychiatry into a community mental health ‘belonging framework’.

External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries

2003 ◽  
Vol 03 (249) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toan Quoc Nguyen ◽  
Benedict J. Clements ◽  
Rina Bhattacharya ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Low Income Countries

Investing in Investing

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Collier
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Sustained Development ◽  
Geological Surveys ◽  
The Government ◽  
A Chain

Harnessing natural assets for sustained development depends upon a chain of decisions, and the outcome is only as good as the weakest link in that chain. We have now reached the last link in the chain, and unfortunately it is the weakest. Suppose that the government has got each of the three previous decisions right: It has commissioned geological surveys that have revealed sufficient information about opportunities and thus been able to auction extraction rights for likely discoveries at good prices; it has designed a tax system which has captured the lion’s share of the rents that constitute the economic value of these natural assets; and it has saved the bulk of these revenues—less than 100 percent—because it judged some extra consumption to be consistent with meeting its obligations to the future, and, recognizing that the rate of return on domestic investment would be much higher than the world interest rate, counted on a capital gain to ease the burden of responsibility. All that remains—the final link—is to implement that domestic investment. Scaling up domestic investment is surely the very stuff of development: it builds the office blocks, constructs the factories, paves the roads, and generates the electricity that visibly distinguishes an emerging market economy from the bottom billion. Why might this final step be the most difficult? Recall that the International Monetary Fund has advised the governments of low-income countries to use the savings from the revenues on natural resources not to invest domestically but to acquire foreign financial assets. This is the Norwegian model, to which the more prudent finance ministers of poorer countries have been attracted. The Fund’s advice is based on a realistic sense of the problems involved: were the extra money spent on domestic investment it would be unlikely to yield an adequate return. Indeed, it might actually damage the economy by congesting fragile public investment systems and causing a collapse in quality. The overarching concept the Fund uses for these problems is “absorption”: the economy simply cannot absorb the extra spending.

scholarly journals DAMPAK ALIRAN MODAL ASING BAGI NEGARA-NEGARA BERKEMBANG: Proses “Perbaikan” ataukah “Pemburukan” bagi Neraca Pembayaran

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
Didit Purnomo
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Logical Consequence ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Foreign Capital Inflows

Generally, foreign capital invested in developing countries function as externally additional capital resources in order to accelerate investment and economical growth, and also to mobilize capital as well as to transform economical structure. In this article, the writer discusses many impacts as a logical consequence of foreign capital inflows in some developing countries, including low income countries. Here, much discussion is talking about pros and cons arguments related to foreign capital inflows. The writer views that the abundance of foreign capital inflows in some developing countries mostly brings to negative impacts (from the view of balance sheet). To support his argument, the writer also put a "trivia hypothesis" such as: tightening rules about foreign capital inflows to make budget deficit not getting worse, 'reducing the structure of industrial sectors consisting many industrial sub sectors which is producing high-value added product and non-resources-based products and also not opening opportunity to posses as much 100 % for foreign investors.

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