What are the best validated scoring systems for estimating stroke risk and bleeding risk in patients with atrial fibrillation?

2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. 1-2
Author(s):  
Michael M. Braun ◽  
Megan Belprez
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Stroke Risk ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Bleeding Risk

Abstract 77: Balancing Risks and Benefits of Anticoagulation Therapy in Atrial Fibrillation in Community Practice: Results from the ORBIT-AF Registry

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael W Cullen ◽  
Sunghee Kim ◽  
Jonathan P Piccini ◽  
Alan S Go ◽  
Gregg C Fonarow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Stroke Risk ◽  
Anticoagulation Therapy ◽  
Bleeding Risk ◽  
Community Practice ◽  
Chads2 Score ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Study Population ◽  
Risk Treatment ◽  
The Cost

Background Oral anticoagulation (OAC) can reduce stroke risk at the cost of increased bleeding risk in those with atrial fibrillation (AF). Observational data have shown that higher-risk patients with AF most likely to benefit from OAC are less likely to receive OAC at hospital discharge. Methods We used data from ORBIT-AF Registry, a cohort of 9,589 AF patients enrolled among 173 participating outpatient practices. OAC was defined as warfarin or dabigatran use at study enrollment. Stroke and bleeding risk were calculated using the CHADS2 and ATRIA scores, respectively. Results The study population had a mean age of 73.5 years; 57.8% were men. Overall, 76.4% of patients received OAC. Use of OAC rose with increasing CHADS2 stroke risk, from 67% for CHADS2 <1 to 80% for CHADS2 ≥2 (p<0.0001). OAC use fell slightly with increasing ATRIA bleeding risk, from 77% for ATRIA score ≤3 to 74% with ≥5 (p=0.002 for trend). Among patients with low bleeding risk, rates of OAC increased commensurate with stroke risk (p<0.0001 for interaction; see figure). Higher bleeding risk tended to decrease rates of OAC among patients with a CHADS2 score ≥2 (p=0.13 for interaction). Conclusions In community-based outpatients with AF, use of OAC rose with increasing thromboembolic risk and declined with higher bleeding risk. These findings suggest that the risk-treatment paradox may be less that previously reported. Provision of OAC in community practice appears to appropriately consider patients' stroke and bleeding risks. Further research is required to understand how quality improvement initiatives can further improve stroke prevention.

Abstract 18538: The ATRIA Stroke Risk Score Predicts Ischemic Stroke Better than CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc in a large Swedish Cohort of Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 130 (suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Aspberg ◽  
Yuchiao Chang ◽  
Daniel Singer
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Stroke Risk ◽  
Anticoagulation Therapy ◽  
Bleeding Risk ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Cut Points ◽  
Net Clinical Benefit ◽  
Better Than

Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major risk factor for acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Anticoagulation therapy (OAC) effectively prevents AIS, but increases bleeding risk. There is a need for better AIS risk prediction to optimize the anticoagulation decision in AF. The ATRIA stroke risk score (ATRIA) (table) was superior to CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc in two large California community AF cohorts. We now report the performance of the 3 scores in a very large Swedish AF cohort. Methods: The cohort consisted of all Swedish patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of AF from July 1, 2005 to December 31, 2008. Predictor variables and the outcome, AIS, were obtained from inpatient ICD-10 codes. Warfarin use was determined from National Pharmacy Database. Risk scores were assessed via c-index (C) and net reclassification index (NRI). Results: The cohort included 158,370 AF patients off warfarin who contributed 340,332 person-years of follow-up, and 11,823 incident AIS, for an overall AIS rate of 3.47%/yr, higher than the 2%/yr seen in the California cohorts. Using the entire point score, ATRIA had a good C of 0.712 (0.708-0.716), significantly better than CHADS2, 0.694 (0.689-0.698), or CHA2DS2-VASc, 0.697 (0.693-0.702). Using published cut-points for Low/Moderate/High AIS risk, C deteriorated for all scores but ATRIA and CHADS2 were superior to CHA2DS2-VASc. NRI favored ATRIA; 0.16 (0.15-0.18) versus CHADS2; 0.22 (0.21-0.24) versus CHA2DS2-VASc. However, NRI decreased to near-zero when cut-points were altered to better fit the cohort’s stroke rates. Conclusion: Findings in this large Swedish AF cohort validate those in the California AF cohorts, with the ATRIA score predicting stroke risk better than CHADS2 or CHA2DS2-VASc. However, relative performance of the categorical scores varied by population stroke risk. Knowledge about this population risk may be needed to optimize cut-points on the multipoint scores to achieve better net clinical benefit from OAC.

Abstract 140: Comparison of Major Complication of Oral Anticoagulants in Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation: Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Seok Lee
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Major Bleeding ◽  
Oral Anticoagulant ◽  
Stroke Risk ◽  
Oral Anticoagulants ◽  
Bleeding Risk ◽  
Gi Bleeding ◽  
Ischemic Stroke Risk ◽  
Meta Analyses

Background: Oral anticoagulants known as a novel oral anticoagulant have been used for the management of non -valvular atrial fibrillation. There was no enough study regarding the efficacy and safety of three major new oral anticoagulants. We assessed major three oral anticoagulants in terms of major bleeding complication and stroke prevention by meta-analyses studies comparing those drugs. Method: Relevant studies were identified through electronic literature searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane library, and clinicaltrials.gov (from inception to February 24, 2016). RevMan and ITC software were used for direct comparisons, respectively. Results: Apixaban (N=6020), versus dabigatran(N=12038), apixaban versus rivaroxaban(N=8503) and rivaroxaban versus dabigatran were analyzed directly. There was significantly higher major bleeding risks in apixaban compared to dabigatran (both 110mg and 150mg) after adjusting baseline bleeding risk (Relative risk 3.41, 95% confidence interval(2.61 to 4.47) in 110mg, (5.62, 4.83 to 6.54) in 150mg. Intracranial bleeding risk in apixaban was significantly higher than in dabigatran (10.5, 6.10 to18.01). However, apixaban had less GI bleeding risk compared to dabigatran (0.80 , 0.65 to 0.98) and also had less ischemic stroke risk (0.31,0.22 to 0.42). Rivaroxaban showed higher major bleeding risk than dabigatran 110mg (2.34 , 1.81 to 3.03), however, Rivaroxaban had less bleeding risk compared to dabigatran 150mg (0.41, 0.35 to 0.46). Dabigatran 110mg and 150mg had less GI bleeding risk compared to rivaroxaban (0.31 , 0.24 to 0.39) and (0.23,0.17 to 0.29) respectively. Ischemic stroke risk was also decreased in dabigatran110mg (0.46, 0.38 to 0.57). and 150mg (0.66 ,0.52 to 0.83). Conclusion: Observed oral anticoagulants were associated with various complications. Overall, apixaban had higher intracranial bleeding risk than dabigatran. The highest GI bleeding risk in rivaroxaban compared to apixaban and dabigatran. Ischemic stroke risk was the highest in dabigatran. In conclusion, we may use those oral anticoagulant based on risks rates, however, a larger study with longer follow-up is needed to corroborate findings.

Female Sex as a Risk Modifier for Stroke Risk in Atrial Fibrillation: Using CHA2DS2-VASc versus CHA2DS2-VA for Stroke Risk Stratification in Atrial Fibrillation: A Note of Caution

2020 ◽  
Vol 120 (06) ◽  
pp. 894-898 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Brønnum Nielsen ◽  
Thure Filskov Overvad
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Oral Anticoagulation ◽  
Stroke Risk ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Recent Discussion ◽  
Anticoagulation Treatment ◽  
Female Sex ◽  
Risk Scoring ◽  
Methodological Approaches ◽  
Risk Modifier

AbstractStroke prevention is a key clinical concern in the management of patients with atrial fibrillation. Oral anticoagulation treatment reduces the risk of disabling stroke, but the treatment increases the risk of bleeding. For decades, the decision to initiate oral anticoagulation has been guided by clinical risk scoring systems such as the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores. In this narrative review, we focus on the recent discussion of the “Sc” (Sex Category) criterion in the CHA2DS2-VASc score. Epidemiological considerations when assessing stroke rates in cohorts are discussed, and the implications of different methodological approaches are outlined. Next, we review studies investigating the association of the “Sc” criterion on the stroke rates under various approaches. Lastly, we discuss potential consequences of implementing the recently suggested sex-less CHA2DS2-VA score, which leaves out female sex from stroke risk assessment in atrial fibrillation.

scholarly journals Role of Biological Markers for Cerebral Bleeding Risk STRATification in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation on Oral Anticoagulants for Primary or Secondary Prevention of Ischemic Stroke (Strat-AF Study): Study Design and Methodology

Medicina ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (10) ◽  
pp. 626 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Poggesi ◽  
Carmen Barbato ◽  
Francesco Galmozzi ◽  
Eleonora Camilleri ◽  
Francesca Cesari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Biological Markers ◽  
Oral Anticoagulant ◽  
Stroke Risk ◽  
Oral Anticoagulants ◽  
Bleeding Risk ◽  
Circulating Biomarkers ◽  
Cerebral Mri

Background and Objectives: In anticoagulated atrial fibrillation (AF) patients, the validity of models recommended for the stratification of the risk ratio between benefits and hemorrhage risk is limited. Cerebral small vessel disease (SVD) represents the pathologic substrate for primary intracerebral hemorrhage and ischemic stroke. We hypothesize that biological markers—both circulating and imaging-based—and their possible interaction, might improve the prediction of bleeding risk in AF patients under treatment with any type of oral anticoagulant. Materials and Methods: The Strat-AF study is an observational, prospective, single-center hospital-based study enrolling patients with AF, aged 65 years or older, and with no contraindications to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), referring to Center of Thrombosis outpatient clinic of our University Hospital for the management of oral anticoagulation therapy. Recruited patients are evaluated by means of a comprehensive protocol, with clinical, cerebral MRI, and circulating biomarkers assessment at baseline and after 18 months. The main outcome is SVD progression—particularly microbleeds—as a selective surrogate marker of hemorrhagic complication. Stroke occurrence (ischemic or hemorrhagic) and the progression of functional, cognitive, and motor status will be evaluated as secondary outcomes. Circulating biomarkers may further improve predictive potentials. Results: Starting from September 2017, 194 patients (mean age 78.1 ± 6.7, range 65–97; 61% males) were enrolled. The type of AF was paroxysmal in 93 patients (48%), and persistent or permanent in the remaining patients. Concerning the type of oral anticoagulant, 57 patients (29%) were on vitamin K antagonists, and 137 (71%) were on direct oral anticoagulants. Follow-up clinical evaluation and brain MRI are ongoing. Conclusions: The Strat-AF study may be an essential step towards the exploration of the role of a combined clinical biomarker or multiple biomarker models in predicting stroke risk in AF, and might sustain the incorporation of such new markers in the existing stroke prediction schemes by the demonstration of a greater incremental value in predicting stroke risk and improvement in clinical outcomes in a cost-effective fashion.

scholarly journals Addressing Stroke Risk in a Patient with CREST Syndrome and Atrial Fibrillation with Left Atrial appendage Occluder Device (WATCHMAN)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 01-04
Author(s):  
Ali Alkhayru
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Left Atrial ◽  
Stroke Risk ◽  
Left Atrial Appendage ◽  
Bleeding Risk ◽  
Atrial Appendage ◽  
Crest Syndrome ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Occluder Device ◽  
One Year

CREST syndrome is rare autoimmune disease causing calcinosis, Raynaud phenomenon, esophageal dysmotility, sclerodactyly and telangiectasias. We present a case of an eighty-two year old female with CREST syndrome who presented to our clinic with atrial fibrillation and prohibitive bleeding risk. Managing stroke risk in atrial fibrillation is essential to minimize the morbidity and mortality of the condition. Those with CREST syndrome presenting with recurrent gastrointestinal bleeding may require alternatives to anticoagulation. Recently, the left atrial appendage occluder device became widely used to manage patients at increased risk for bleeding. The device provides a safe and efficacious alternative in lowering atrial fibrillation associated stroke risk. Our patient underwent uncomplicated implantation of the left atrial appendage occluder device. She was closely monitored for one year where she remained stroke free and had one minor episode of gastrointestinal hemorrhage.

Comparison of the CHADS2, CHA2DS2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores for the prediction of clinically relevant bleeding in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation: The AMADEUS trial

2013 ◽  
Vol 110 (11) ◽  
pp. 1074-1079 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stavros Apostolakis ◽  
Deirdre A. Lane ◽  
Harry Buller ◽  
Gregory Y. H. Lip
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Stroke Risk ◽  
Bleeding Risk ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Net Reclassification Improvement ◽  
Anticoagulated Patients ◽  
Discriminatory Performance

SummaryMany of the risk factors for stroke in atrial fibrillation (AF) are also important risk factors for bleeding. We tested the hypothesis that the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores (used for stroke risk assessment) could be used to predict serious bleeding, and that these scores would compare well against the HAS-BLED score, which is a specific risk score designed for bleeding risk assessment. From the AMADEUS trial, we focused on the trial’s primary safety outcome for serious bleeding, which was “any clinically relevant bleeding”. The predictive value of HAS-BLED/CHADS2/CHA2DS2-VASc were compared by area under the curve (AUC, a measure of the c-index) and the Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI). Of 2,293 patients on VKA, 251 (11%) experienced at least one episode of “any clinically relevant bleeding” during an average 429 days follow up period. Incidence of “any clinically relevant bleeding” rose with increasing HAS-BLED/CHADS2/CHA2DS2-VASc scores, but was statistically significant only for HAS-BLED (p<0.0001). Only HAS-BLED demonstrated significant discriminatory performance for “any clinically relevant bleeding” (AUC 0.60, p<0.0001). There were significant AUC-differences between HAS-BLED (which had the highest AUC) and both CHADS2 (p<0.001) and CHA2DS2VASc (p=0.001). The HAS-BLED score also demonstrated significant NRI for the outcome of “any clinically relevant bleeding” when compared with CHADS2 (p=0.001) and CHA2DS2-VASc (p=0.04). In conclusion, the HAS-BLED score demonstrated significant discriminatory performance for “any clinically relevant bleeding” in anticoagulated patients with AF, whilst the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores did not. Bleeding risk assessment should be made using a specific bleeding risk score such as HAS-BLED, and the stroke risk scores such as CHADS2 or CHA2DS2-VASc scores should not be used.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document