Development and Internal Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Mortality During the ICU Stay of Thoracic Fracture Patients Without Neurological Compromise: An Analysis of the MIMIC-III Clinical Database

Background: This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting mortality in patients with thoracic fractures without neurological compromise and hospitalized in the intensive care unit.Methods: A total of 298 patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database were included in the study, and 35 clinical indicators were collected within 24 h of patient admission. Risk factors were identified using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. A multivariate logistic regression model was established, and a nomogram was constructed. Internal validation was performed by the 1,000 bootstrap samples; a receiver operating curve (ROC) was plotted, and the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity were calculated. In addition, the calibration of our model was evaluated by the calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test (HL test). A decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed, and the nomogram was compared with scoring systems commonly used during clinical practice to assess the net clinical benefit.Results: Indicators included in the nomogram were age, OASIS score, SAPS II score, respiratory rate, partial thromboplastin time (PTT), cardiac arrhythmias, and fluid-electrolyte disorders. The results showed that our model yielded satisfied diagnostic performance with an AUC value of 0.902 and 0.883 using the training set and on internal validation. The calibration curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit (HL). The HL tests exhibited satisfactory concordance between predicted and actual outcomes (P = 0.648). The DCA showed a superior net clinical benefit of our model over previously reported scoring systems.Conclusion: In summary, we explored the incidence of mortality during the ICU stay of thoracic fracture patients without neurological compromise and developed a prediction model that facilitates clinical decision making. However, external validation will be needed in the future.

Predicting the Performance of Concurrent Systematic Random Biopsies during Image Fusion Targeted Sampling of Multi-Parametric MRI Detected Prostate Cancer. A Prospective Study (PRESET Study)

The study was aimed to develop a predictive model to identify patients who may benefit from performing systematic random biopsies (SB) in addition to targeted biopsies (TB) in men suspected of having prostate cancer. A total of 198 patients with positive pre-biopsy MRI findings and who had undergone both TB and SB were prospectively recruited into this study. The primary outcome was detection rates of clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa) in SB and TB approaches. The secondary outcome was net clinical benefits of SB in addition to TB. A logistic regression model and nomogram construction were used to perform a multivariate analysis. The detection rate of csPCa using SB was 51.0% (101/198) compared to a rate of 56.1% (111/198) for TB, using a patient-based biopsy approach. The detection rate of csPCa was higher using a combined biopsy (64.6%; 128/198) in comparison to TB (56.1%; 111/198) alone. This was statistically significant (p < 0.001). Age, PSA density and PIRADS score significantly predicted the detection of csPCa by SB in addition to TB. A nomogram based on the model showed good discriminative ability (C-index; 78%). The decision analysis curve confirmed a higher net clinical benefit at an acceptable threshold.

A Meta-Analysis Evaluating the Colchicine Therapy in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease

Background: Evidence from recent studies has shown the benefits of colchicine for patients with coronary artery disease. The aim was to assess the effect of colchicine treatment on cardiovascular events, with an estimation of the risk of discontinuation and net clinical benefit.Methods and Results: Fourteen trials with a total of 13,186 patients were selected through a systematic search. Colchicine therapy significantly reduced the relative risk of primary endpoint by about 30% [RR 0.70 (95%CI:0.56–0.88)]. Compared with placebo, colchicine significantly reduced the risk of ischemia-driven revascularization [RR 0.57 (95%CI 0.41–0.80)], ischemia-driven revascularization and resuscitation [RR 0.50 (95%CI 0.34–0.73)], myocardial infarction [RR 0.73 (95%CI 0.57–0.95)], and stroke [RR 0.49 (95%CI 0.30–0.7)]. Patients treated with colchicine in comparison with placebo have a significant increase in the risk of treatment cessation (RR 1.60 95%CI 1.06–2.42). However, in the analysis which excluded studies without placebo, the relative risk of discontinuation was smaller (RR 1.34 95%CI 0.97–1.84) and in the three largest studies, the risk of discontinuation was lower and insignificant [RR 1.26 (95%CI 0.87–1.83)]. The net clinical benefit was 17.8/1,000 patients (p &lt; 0.001).Conclusion: In coronary artery disease, low-dose colchicine significantly reduces the risk of the primary composite endpoint by about 30%. The drug should be considered as part of the preventive treatment in patients with good tolerance.

Prevention of ischemic stroke in atrial fibrillation from the point of view of a neurologist. Standards and real clinical practice

The article outlines aspects of the current state of the problem of the priority choice of an oral anticoagulant for indefinite prevention of stroke and systemic thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation. The advantages of direct oral angicoagulants over warfarin are presented, as well as a comparative analysis of the individual characteristics of the main direct oral angicoagulants from the point of view of personification of preventive therapy in accordance with modern treatment standards. The efficacy and safety of oral anticoagulant therapy has been reviewed in terms of the net clinical benefit. Particular attention is paid to the age-related aspects of choosing an anticoagulant for indefinite prophylaxis; an assessment of anticoagulants is presented in accordance with the FORTA concept, which regulates the use of drugs in elderly patients. In conclusion, recommendations are formulated for the choice of an anticoagulant in patients with atrial fibrillation in the most common clinical situations. As a general rule, the choice of a particular drug should be individualized based on risk factors, tolerability, net clinical benefit, patient preference, potential adverse interactions, and other clinical characteristics.

Identification of a Hypoxia-Related Gene Signature for Predicting Systemic Metastasis in Prostate Cancer

Background: Systemic metastasis is the main cause of death in patients with prostate cancer. It is necessary to establish a more accurate model to distinguish and predict patients with a high risk of metastasis to optimize individualized treatment.Methods: In this study, it was determined that hypoxia could affect the metastasis-free survival of patients with prostate cancer, and a hypoxia-related gene signature composed of seven genes for predicting metastasis was established and verified in different cohorts. The study further evaluated the effects of ALDOB expression on the proliferation and invasion of the LNCaP and DU145 cell lines under hypoxia and finally constructed a nomogram containing specific clinical characteristics of prostate cancer combined with the hypoxia gene signature to quantify the metastasis risk of individual patients.Results: The hypoxia-related gene signature was identified as an independent risk factor for metastasis-free survival in patients with prostate cancer. The expression of ALDOB increased under hypoxia and promoted the proliferation and invasion of LNCaP and DU145 cells. In addition, patients with a high risk score showed therapeutic resistance and immunosuppression. Compared with other parameters, the nomogram had the strongest predictive power and net clinical benefit.Conclusion: The study established a hypoxia-related gene signature and a nomogram to distinguish and predict patients with a high risk of prostate cancer metastasis, which may help to optimize individualized treatment and explore possible therapeutic targets.

Prevention of ischaemic events in subjects with polydistrict vascular disease

The incidence of new cardiovascular events in patients with chronic coronary syndrome remains high, particularly in the presence of concomitant high thrombotic risk factors (diabetes mellitus, renal failure, multivessel coronary artery disease, multiple district atherosclerosis, recurrent events, heart failure). The risk of such recurrent events can be reduced by implementing various strategies, which include careful individual stratification of ischaemic and haemorrhagic risk and the choice of the most appropriate antithrombotic therapy for the individual patient, also by combining aspirin with a second antiplatelet agent/a low-dose anticoagulant, in order to achieve the maximum net clinical benefit.