scholarly journals Symbolic transfer entropy reveals the age structure of pandemic influenza transmission from high-volume influenza-like illness data

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (164) ◽  
pp. 20190628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen M. Kissler ◽  
Cécile Viboud ◽  
Bryan T. Grenfell ◽  
Julia R. Gog

Existing methods to infer the relative roles of age groups in epidemic transmission can normally only accommodate a few age classes, and/or require data that are highly specific for the disease being studied. Here, symbolic transfer entropy (STE), a measure developed to identify asymmetric transfer of information between stochastic processes, is presented as a way to reveal asymmetric transmission patterns between age groups in an epidemic. STE provides a ranking of which age groups may dominate transmission, rather than a reconstruction of the explicit between-age-group transmission matrix. Using simulations, we establish that STE can identify which age groups dominate transmission even when there are differences in reporting rates between age groups and even if the data are noisy. Then, the pairwise STE is calculated between time series of influenza-like illness for 12 age groups in 884 US cities during the autumn of 2009. Elevated STE from 5 to 19 year-olds indicates that school-aged children were likely the most important transmitters of infection during the autumn wave of the 2009 pandemic in the USA. The results may be partially confounded by higher rates of physician-seeking behaviour in children compared to adults, but it is unlikely that differences in reporting rates can explain the observed differences in STE.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen M Kissler ◽  
Cécile Viboud ◽  
Bryan T Grenfell ◽  
Julia R Gog

AbstractExisting methods to infer the relative roles of age groups in epidemic transmission can normally only accommodate a few age classes, and/or require data that are highly specific for the disease being studied. Here, symbolic transfer entropy (STE), a measure developed to identify asymmetric transfer of information between stochastic processes, is presented as a way to determine which age groups drive an epidemic. STE provides a ranking of which age groups dominate transmission, rather than a reconstruction of the explicit between-age-group transmission matrix. Using simulations, we establish that STE can identify which age groups dominate transmission, even when there are differences in reporting rates between age groups and even if the data is noisy. Then, the pairwise STE is calculated between time series of influenza-like illness for 12 age groups in 884 US cities during the autumn of 2009. Elevated STE from 5-19 year-olds indicates that school-aged children were the most important transmitters of infection during the autumn wave of the 2009 pandemic in the US. The results may be partially confounded by higher rates of physician-seeking behaviour in children compared to adults, but it is unlikely that differences in reporting rates can explain the observed differences in STE.


Children ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Andrew Kampfschulte ◽  
Matthew Oram ◽  
Alejandra M. Escobar Vasco ◽  
Brittany Essenmacher ◽  
Amy Herbig ◽  
...  

Suicide frequency has tripled for some pediatric age groups over the last decade, of which, serious attempts result in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admissions. We paired clinical, aggregate geospatial, and temporal demographics to understand local community variables to determine if epidemiological patterns emerge that associate with risk for PICU admission. Data were extracted at an urban, high-volume, quaternary care facility from January 2011 to December 2017 via ICD 10 codes associated with suicide. Clinical, socioeconomic, geographical, and temporal variables were reviewed. In total, 1036 patients over the age of 9 were included, of which n = 161 were PICU admissions. Females represented higher proportions of all suicide-related hospital admissions (67.9%). Looking at race/ethnicity, PICU admissions were largely Caucasian (83.2%); Blacks and Hispanics had lower odds of PICU admissions (OR: 0.49; 0.17, respectively). PICU-admitted patients were older (16.0 vs. 15.5; p = 0.0001), with lower basal metabolic index (23.0 vs. 22.0; p = 0.0013), and presented in summer months (OR: 1.51, p = 0.044). Time-series decomposition showed seasonal peaks in June and August. Local regions outside the city limits identified higher numbers of PICU admissions. PICUs serve discrete geographical regions and are a source of information, when paired with clinical geospatial/seasonal analyses, highlighting clinical and societal risk factors associated with PICU admissions.


Author(s):  
Giselle Sarganas ◽  
Anja Schienkiewitz ◽  
Jonas D. Finger ◽  
Hannelore K. Neuhauser

AbstractTo track blood pressure (BP) and resting heart rate (RHR) in children and adolescents is important due to its associations with cardiovascular outcomes in the adulthood. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine BP and RHR over a decade among children and adolescents living in Germany using national examination data. Cross-sectional data from 3- to 17-year-old national survey participants (KiGGS 2003–06, n = 14,701; KiGGS 2014–17, n = 3509) including standardized oscillometric BP and RHR were used for age- and sex-standardized analysis. Measurement protocols were identical with the exception of the cuff selection rule, which was accounted for in the analyses. Different BP and RHR trends were observed according to age-groups. In 3- to 6-year-olds adjusted mean SBP and DBP were significantly higher in 2014–2017 compared to 2003–2006 (+2.4 and +1.9 mm Hg, respectively), while RHR was statistically significantly lower by −3.8 bpm. No significant changes in BP or in RHR were observed in 7- to 10-year-olds over time. In 11- to 13-year-olds as well as in 14- to 17-year-olds lower BP has been observed (SBP −2.4 and −3.2 mm Hg, respectively, and DBP −1.8 and −1.7 mm Hg), while RHR was significantly higher (+2.7 and +3.7 bpm). BP trends did not parallel RHR trends. The downward BP trend in adolescents seemed to follow decreasing adult BP trends in middle and high-income countries. The increase in BP in younger children needs confirmation from other studies as well as further investigation. In school-aged children and adolescents, the increased RHR trend may indicate decreased physical fitness.


1995 ◽  
Vol 80 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1075-1082 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salvatore De Marco ◽  
Roxanne M. Harrell

A comparative study was undertaken to assess the relative magnitude of the effects of linguistic context on the perception of word-juncture boundaries in 30 young school-aged children, 30 older school-aged children, and 30 adults. Minimally contrasted two-word phrases differing in word-juncture boundaries were embedded in a meaningful sentence context, nonmeaningful sentence context, and in neutral phrase context. Groups performed similarly in the neutral phrase context, and two older groups performed better than the young group in the meaningful context. The poorest performances occurred during the nonmeaningful context, with a significant difference among age groups. Heavier reliance upon top-down processing and less developed linguistic and metalinguistic competence may account for the observed differences among groups.


2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-71
Author(s):  
Pramila Rao

Purpose This empirical research was conducted in a medium-sized private university located in the north-eastern region of the USA. The purpose of this paper was to understand whether demographic attributes (age, gender, country of origin and years of stay in the USA) of international students will predict any preferences for specific teaching methods. This study was conducted with international students from October 2012 through May 2013 (fall and spring semesters). Design/methodology/approach This research paper provides hypotheses to explore whether there is any relationship between demographic factors and preferences for various teaching methods. This study analyzes the results using both Pearson’s correlations and one-way ANOVA to reject or accept the hypotheses. Findings The results demonstrated that there were no significant correlations between the demographic variables of international students and teaching methods. However, the one-way ANOVA analyses suggested that there are differences among age groups and their preferences for group projects, years of studying in the USA and their preferences for classroom discussions, and gender and their preferences for textbook assignments. Practical implications This study suggests that scholars provide orientation or training on the host country’s pedagogies so that international students can assimilate better into their academic communities. Originality/value This pioneering paper examines the role between demographic variables of international students and teaching pedagogies. This specific concept has not been examined in this literature before. This understanding could contribute to a richer understanding of this population of students.


2015 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 65-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aneta Marek ◽  
Małgorzata Wieczorek

Abstract The aim of the article is an analysis of tourist traffic in the Aconcagua massif, one of the most popular peaks of the Seven Summits. On the basis of statistical data, the tourist traffic was analysed in a temporal and spatial perspective. The applied data made it possible to capture the dynamics of visits in the period 2000/2001 – 2012/2013 and with a breakdown into months, which helped analyse the tourist traffic in this area. In each of the analysed periods, January dominates. Data concerning the origin of tourists according to countries and continents, their age, gender and type of mountaineering activity were also taken into account. Most tourists came from Argentina, the USA and Germany. These are people of age groups 21–30 (33%) and 31–40 (31%). Men account for over 75% of visitors. The favourite mountaineering activity is climbing (about 60%). Aconcagua has invariably been a very popular peak among tourists and climbers. It is a place for training and acclimatisation for alpinists, participating in Himalayan expeditions and climbers collecting peaks of the Seven Summits.


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