scholarly journals Integrated vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions based strategies in Ontario, Canada, as a case study: a mathematical modelling study

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (180) ◽  
pp. 20210009
Author(s):  
Matthew Betti ◽  
Nicola Luigi Bragazzi ◽  
Jane M. Heffernan ◽  
Jude Kong ◽  
Angie Raad
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Local Public Health ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
The Public ◽  
Epidemiological Trend ◽  
Health Decision ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Recently, two coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine products have been authorized in Canada. It is of crucial importance to model an integrated/combined package of non-pharmaceutical (physical/social distancing) and pharmaceutical (immunization) public health control measures. A modified epidemiological, compartmental SIR model was used and fit to the cumulative COVID-19 case data for the province of Ontario, Canada, from 8 September 2020 to 8 December 2020. Different vaccine roll-out strategies were simulated until 75% of the population was vaccinated, including a no-vaccination scenario. We compete these vaccination strategies with relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Non-pharmaceutical interventions were supposed to remain enforced and began to be relaxed on 31 January, 31 March or 1 May 2021. Based on projections from the data and long-term extrapolation of scenarios, relaxing the public health measures implemented by re-opening too early would cause any benefits of vaccination to be lost by increasing case numbers, increasing the effective reproduction number above 1 and thus increasing the risk of localized outbreaks. If relaxation is, instead, delayed and 75% of the Ontarian population gets vaccinated by the end of the year, re-opening can occur with very little risk. Relaxing non-pharmaceutical interventions by re-opening and vaccine deployment is a careful balancing act. Our combination of model projections from data and simulation of different strategies and scenarios, can equip local public health decision- and policy-makers with projections concerning the COVID-19 epidemiological trend, helping them in the decision-making process.

scholarly journals Integrated Vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions based Strategies in Ontario, Canada, as a Case Study: a Mathematical Modeling Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Betti ◽  
Nicola Bragazzi ◽  
Jane Heffernan ◽  
Jude Dvezela Kong ◽  
Angie Raad
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Local Public Health ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
The Public ◽  
Epidemiological Trend ◽  
Health Decision ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Background: Recently, two "Coronavirus disease 2019" (COVID-19) vaccine products have been authorized in Canada. It is of crucial importance to model an integrated/combined package of non-pharmaceutical (physical/social distancing) and pharmaceutical (immunization) public health control measures. Methods: A modified epidemiological, compartmental SIR model was utilized and fit to the cumulative COVID-19 case data for the province of Ontario, Canada, from September 8, 2020 to December 8, 2020. Different vaccine roll-out strategies were simulated until 75 percent of the population is vaccinated, including a no-vaccination scenario. We compete these vaccination strategies with relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Non-pharmaceutical interventions were supposed to remain enforced and began to be relaxed on either January 31, March 31, or May 1, 2021. Results: Based on projections from the data and long-term extrapolation of scenarios, relaxing the public health measures implemented by re-opening too early would cause any benefits of vaccination to be lost by increasing case numbers, increasing the effective reproduction number above 1 and thus increasing the risk of localized outbreaks. If relaxation is, instead, delayed and 75 percent of the Ontarian population gets vaccinated by the end of the year, re-opening can occur with very little risk. Interpretation: Relaxing non-pharmaceutical interventions by re-opening and vaccine deployment is a careful balancing act. Our combination of model projections from data and simulation of different strategies and scenarios, can equip local public health decision- and policy-makers with projections concerning the COVID-19 epidemiological trend, helping them in the decision-making process.

scholarly journals ‘All In’: A Pragmatic Framework for COVID-19 Testing and Action on a Global Scale

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syril D Pettit ◽  
Keith Jerome ◽  
David Rouquie ◽  
Susan Hester ◽  
Leah Wehmas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Material Resource ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Decision Making ◽  
Clinical Community ◽  
Health Decision ◽  
Broad Consensus

Current demand for SARS-CoV-2 testing is straining material resource and labor capacity around the globe. As a result, the public health and clinical community are hindered in their ability to monitor and contain the spread of COVID-19. Despite broad consensus that more testing is needed, pragmatic guidance towards realizing this objective has been limited. This paper addresses this limitation by proposing a novel and geographically agnostic framework (‘the 4Ps Framework) to guide multidisciplinary, scalable, resource-efficient, and achievable efforts towards enhanced testing capacity. The 4Ps (Prioritize, Propagate, Partition, and Provide) are described in terms of specific opportunities to enhance the volume, diversity, characterization, and implementation of SARS-CoV-2 testing to benefit public health. Coordinated deployment of the strategic and tactical recommendations described in this framework have the potential to rapidly expand available testing capacity, improve public health decision-making in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and/or to be applied in future emergent disease outbreaks.

scholarly journals Tracking SARS-COV-2 Variants Using Nanopore Sequencing in Ukraine in Summer 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Yakovleva ◽  
Ganna Kovalenko ◽  
Matthew Redlinger ◽  
Mariia G. Liulchuk ◽  
Eric Bortz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Local Public Health ◽  
Genetic Sequencing ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
Genomic Epidemiology ◽  
Health Decision Making ◽  
Health Decision

Abstract Since spring 2020, Ukraine has experienced at least two COVID-19 waves and has just entered a third wave in autumn 2021. The use of real-time genomic epidemiology has enabled the tracking of SARS-CoV-2 circulation patterns worldwide, thus informing evidence-based public health decision making, including implementation of travel restrictions and vaccine rollout strategies. However, insufficient capacity for local genetic sequencing in Ukraine and other Lower and Middle-Income countries limit opportunities for similar analyses. Herein, we report local sequencing of 24 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from patient samples collected in Kyiv in July 2021 using Oxford Nanopore MinION technology. Together with other published Ukrainian SARS-COV-2 genomes sequenced mostly abroad, our data suggest that the second wave of the epidemic in Ukraine (February-April 2021) was dominated by the Alpha variant of concern (VOC), while the beginning of the third wave has been dominated by the Delta VOC. Furthermore, our phylogeographic analysis revealed that the Delta variant was introduced into Ukraine in summer 2021 from multiple locations worldwide, with most introductions coming from Central and Eastern European countries. This study highlights the need to urgently integrate affordable and easily-scaled pathogen sequencing technologies in locations with less developed genomic infrastructure, in order to support local public health decision making.

A Multicriteria Spatiotemporal System for Influenza Epidemic Surveillance

2021 ◽  
pp. 452-479
Author(s):  
Fatima-Zohra Younsi ◽  
Djamila Hamdadou ◽  
Salem Chakhar
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Ranking Method ◽  
Influenza Surveillance ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Promethee Ii ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
Health Decision

Influenza has been a growing concern for the public health decision makers/policy makers. Indeed, they are in need of a real geo-making tool for monitoring and surveillance. The chapter aims to introduce a novel spatiotemporal decision system based on multicriteria ranking method, information geographic system (GIS), and SEIRSW system for public health. The later was designed, implemented, and validated in previous research for influenza risk assessment. The authors highlight the use of PROMETHEE II ranking method of multi-criteria decision analysis in GIS that incorporates various factors to monitor and identify potential high-risk areas of seasonal influenza and disease mapping. Factors related to the risk of seasonal influenza are obtained from simulation system and constitute the input values of PROMETHEE II ranking method for the 26 communes of the city of Oran, Algeria. The proposed system has demonstrated analytical capabilities in targeting high-risk spots and influenza surveillance monitoring system and it can help public health policy makers prioritize in their response goals and evaluate control strategies.

School Closure Decisions Made by Local Health Department Officials During the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Outbreak

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 464-471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harvey Kayman ◽  
Sarah Salter ◽  
Maanvi Mittal ◽  
Winifred Scott ◽  
Nicholas Santos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
H1n1 Influenza ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Local Public Health ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
Health Decision ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Public Health Officials ◽  
2009 H1n1

AbstractObjectivesThe goal of this study was to gain insights into the decision-making processes used by California public health officials during real-time crises. The decision-making processes used by California public health officials during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic were examined by a survey research team from the University of California Berkeley.MethodsThe survey was administered to local public health officials in California. Guidelines published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had recommended school closure, and local public health officials had to decide whether to follow these recommendations. Chi-squared tests were used to make comparisons in the descriptive statistics.ResultsThe response rate from local public health departments was 79%. A total of 73% of respondents were involved in the decision-making process. Respondents stated whether they used or did not use 15 ethical, logistical, and political preselected criteria. They expressed interest in receiving checklists and additional training in decision-making.ConclusionsPublic health decision-makers do not appear to have a standard process for crisis decision-making and would benefit from having an organized decision-making model. The survey showed that ethical, logistical, and political criteria were considered but were not prioritized in any meaningful way. A new decision-making tool kit for public health decision-makers plus implementation training is warranted. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2015;9:464–471)

scholarly journals Routine and sentinel surveillance methods

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-50
Author(s):  
Joseph Z. Losos
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
The Public ◽  
Community Needs ◽  
Health Decision Making ◽  
Dissemination Area ◽  
Health Community ◽  
Health Decision ◽  
Action Choice

Surveillance, whether active or passive, is a dynamic process. It is fundamental to public health decision-making and subsequent action. Choice of diseases for surveillance, development of methods, ongoing systematic evaluation and dissemination to those who need to know, are each components which require expert, knowledgeable attention. The communication age will greatly redefine approaches to surveillance, both for data acquisition and dissemination. Especially in the dissemination area, the public health community needs to strengthen its capacity

A Multicriteria Spatiotemporal System for Influenza Epidemic Surveillance

2019 ◽  
pp. 176-202
Author(s):  
Fatima-Zohra Younsi ◽  
Djamila Hamdadou ◽  
Salem Chakhar
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Ranking Method ◽  
Influenza Surveillance ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Promethee Ii ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
Health Decision

Influenza has been a growing concern for the public health decision makers/policy makers. Indeed, they are in need of a real geo-making tool for monitoring and surveillance. The chapter aims to introduce a novel spatiotemporal decision system based on multicriteria ranking method, information geographic system (GIS), and SEIRSW system for public health. The later was designed, implemented, and validated in previous research for influenza risk assessment. The authors highlight the use of PROMETHEE II ranking method of multi-criteria decision analysis in GIS that incorporates various factors to monitor and identify potential high-risk areas of seasonal influenza and disease mapping. Factors related to the risk of seasonal influenza are obtained from simulation system and constitute the input values of PROMETHEE II ranking method for the 26 communes of the city of Oran, Algeria. The proposed system has demonstrated analytical capabilities in targeting high-risk spots and influenza surveillance monitoring system and it can help public health policy makers prioritize in their response goals and evaluate control strategies.

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