scholarly journals Phenotypic plasticity and population viability: the importance of environmental predictability

2010 ◽  
Vol 277 (1699) ◽  
pp. 3391-3400 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas E. Reed ◽  
Robin S. Waples ◽  
Daniel E. Schindler ◽  
Jeffrey J. Hard ◽  
Michael T. Kinnison
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Phenotypic Plasticity ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Environmental Variation ◽  
Population Viability ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Demographic Models ◽  
Explicit Consideration ◽  
Population Viability Analyses

Phenotypic plasticity plays a key role in modulating how environmental variation influences population dynamics, but we have only rudimentary understanding of how plasticity interacts with the magnitude and predictability of environmental variation to affect population dynamics and persistence. We developed a stochastic individual-based model, in which phenotypes could respond to a temporally fluctuating environmental cue and fitness depended on the match between the phenotype and a randomly fluctuating trait optimum, to assess the absolute fitness and population dynamic consequences of plasticity under different levels of environmental stochasticity and cue reliability. When cue and optimum were tightly correlated, plasticity buffered absolute fitness from environmental variability, and population size remained high and relatively invariant. In contrast, when this correlation weakened and environmental variability was high, strong plasticity reduced population size, and populations with excessively strong plasticity had substantially greater extinction probability. Given that environments might become more variable and unpredictable in the future owing to anthropogenic influences, reaction norms that evolved under historic selective regimes could imperil populations in novel or changing environmental contexts. We suggest that demographic models (e.g. population viability analyses) would benefit from a more explicit consideration of how phenotypic plasticity influences population responses to environmental change.

scholarly journals Quantifying whether different demographic models produce incongruent results on population dynamics of two long-term studied rodent species

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-26
Author(s):  
Giovanni Amori ◽  
Valentina De Silvestro ◽  
Paolo Ciucci ◽  
Luca Luiselli
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Myodes Glareolus ◽  
Suitable Model ◽  
Demographic Model ◽  
Apodemus Flavicollis ◽  
Demographic Models ◽  
Long Term Studies

Abstract1. Population density (ind/ha) of long-term (>15 years) series of CMR populations, using distinct demographic models designed for both open and closed populations, were analysed for two sympatric species of rodents (Myodes glareolus and Apodemus flavicollis) from a mountain area in central Italy, in order to test the relative performance of various employed demographic models. In particular, the hypothesis that enumeration models systematically underestimate the population size of a given population was tested.2. Overall, we compared the performance of 7 distinct demographic models, including both closed and open models, for each study species. Although the two species revealed remarkable intrinsic differences in demography traits (for instance, a lower propensity for being recaptured in Apodemus flavicollis), the Robust Design appeared to be the best fitting model, showing that it is the most suitable model for long-term studies.3. Among the various analysed demographic models, Jolly-Seber returned the lower estimates of population density for both species. Thus, this demographic model could not be suggested for being applied for long-term studies of small mammal populations because it tends to remarkably underestimate the effective population size. Nonetheless, yearly estimates of population density by Jolly-Seber correlated positively with yearly estimates of population density by closed population models, thus showing that interannual trends in population dynamics were uncovered by both types of demographic models, although with different values in terms of true population size.

Predicting the effects of climate change on bird population dynamics

2019 ◽  
pp. 74-90
Author(s):  
Bernt-Erik Sæther ◽  
Steinar Engen ◽  
Marlène Gamelon ◽  
Vidar Grøtan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Population Estimates ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Statistical Sense ◽  
High Level ◽  
Avian Populations

Climate variation strongly influences fluctuations in size of avian populations. In this chapter, we show that it is difficult to predict how the abundance of birds will respond to climate change. A major reason for this is that most available time series of fluctuations in population size are in a statistical sense short, thus often resulting in large uncertainties in parameter estimates. We therefore argue that reliable population predictions must be based on models that capture how climate change will affect vital rates as well as including other processes (e.g. density-dependences) known to affect the population dynamics of the species in question. Our survey of examples of such forecast studies show that reliable predictions necessarily contain a high level of uncertainty. A major reason for this is that avian population dynamics are strongly influenced by environmental stochasticity, which is for most species, irrespective of their life history, the most important driver of fluctuations in population size. Credible population predictions must therefore assess the effects of such uncertainties as well as biases in population estimates.

scholarly journals Evidence and implications of higher-order scaling in the environmental variation of animal population growth

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (9) ◽  
pp. 2782-2787 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jake M. Ferguson ◽  
José M. Ponciano
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Density Dependence ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Environmental Variation ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Population Variance ◽  
Environmental Variance ◽  
Animal Populations ◽  
Environmental Fluctuations

Environmental stochasticity is an important concept in population dynamics, providing a quantitative model of the extrinsic fluctuations driving population abundances. It is typically formulated as a stochastic perturbation to the maximum reproductive rate, leading to a population variance that scales quadratically with abundance. However, environmental fluctuations may also drive changes in the strength of density dependence. Very few studies have examined the consequences of this alternative model formulation while even fewer have tested which model better describes fluctuations in animal populations. Here we use data from the Global Population Dynamics Database to determine the statistical support for this alternative environmental variance model in 165 animal populations and test whether these models can capture known population–environment interactions in two well-studied ungulates. Our results suggest that variation in the density dependence is common and leads to a higher-order scaling of the population variance. This scaling will often stabilize populations although dynamics may also be destabilized under certain conditions. We conclude that higher-order environmental variation is a potentially ubiquitous and consequential property of animal populations. Our results suggest that extinction risk estimates may often be overestimated when not properly taking into account how environmental fluctuations affect population parameters.

Evolution of Reaction Norms

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebekah A. Oomen ◽  
Jeffrey A. Hutchings
Keyword(s):  
Phenotypic Plasticity ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Nonlinear Function ◽  
Environmental Variation ◽  
Reaction Norm ◽  
Reaction Norms ◽  
Phenotypic Trait ◽  
Phenotypic Variance ◽  
Linear Quadratic ◽  
Norm Evolution

Phenotypic variance is a function of genetic variability, environmental variation, and the ways in which genetic and environmental variation interact, i.e., VG×E. Reaction norms are a means of conceptually, graphically, and mathematically describing this total variance and are a powerful tool for decomposing it into its constituent parts (i.e., nature, nurture, and, critically, their interaction). A reaction norm is defined as the range of phenotypes expressed by a genotype along an environmental gradient. It is represented by a linear or nonlinear function which describes the value of a phenotypic trait for a particular genotype or group of genotypes in different environments. As such, it is closely related to the concept of phenotypic plasticity, which can be represented by a reaction norm with a non-zero slope (i.e., the phenotype varies with respect to the environment). While the term (which originated as Reaktionsnorm) has been in use for over one hundred years, there has been some debate about the most appropriate way to describe it mathematically. Nonetheless, there is general consensus that a reaction norm has multiple properties, each of which can be the target of selection. Reaction norms are typically described as consisting of: (1) an intercept, elevation, or offset, which describes the mean trait value across all environments, (2) a slope, which quantifies the degree of trait plasticity, and (3) shape or curvature (e.g., linear, quadratic, monotonic). Evidence that trait means and plasticities can evolve separately underscores the necessity of applying a reaction norm framework for studying ecological and evolutionary responses to the environment, because measuring phenotypes in a single environmental context does not necessarily reflect their relative values or diversities in a different context. These contextual differences are particularly important in a world of rapid anthropogenic change and increasing environmental variability. Therefore, in addition to being fundamental to ecological and evolutionary phenomena, reaction norm evolution is relevant for diverse biological fields, including behavior and psychology, conservation and natural resource management, global change biology, agriculture and breeding programs, and human health. Given that evolutionary change is defined by genetic change, we focus this article on variation among reaction norms from different genotypes (i.e., reaction norms that have potentially evolved to be divergent from one another) as well as the forces that promote and constrain reaction norm evolution. For an overview of the literature on plasticity itself (keeping in mind that reaction norms need not be plastic), see the separate Oxford Bibliographies in Evolutionary Biology article Phenotypic Plasticity.

scholarly journals A parametric interpretation of Bayesian Nonparametric Inference from Gene Genealogies: linking ecological, population genetics and evolutionary processes

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
José M. Ponciano
Keyword(s):  
Population Genetics ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Bayesian Nonparametric ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Ecological Principles ◽  
Gp Model ◽  
Stochastic Population Dynamics

AbstractUsing a nonparametric Bayesian approach Palacios and Minin [1] dramatically improved the accuracy, precision of Bayesian inference of population size trajectories from gene genealogies. These authors proposed an extension of a Gaussian Process (GP) nonparametric inferential method for the intensity function of non-homogeneous Poisson processes. They found that not only the statistical properties of the estimators were improved with their method, but also, that key aspects of the demographic histories were recovered. The authors’ work represents the first Bayesian nonparametric solution to this inferential problem because they specify a convenient prior belief without a particular functional form on the population trajectory. Their approach works so well and provides such a profound understanding of the biological process, that the question arises as to how truly “biology-free” their approach really is. Using well-known concepts of stochastic population dynamics, here I demonstrate that in fact, Palacios and Minin’s GP model can be cast as a parametric population growth model with density dependence and environmental stochasticity. Making this link between population genetics and stochastic population dynamics modeling provides novel insights into eliciting biologically meaningful priors for the trajectory of the effective population size. The results presented here also bring novel understanding of GP as models for the evolution of a trait. Thus, the ecological principles foundation of Palacios and Minin [1]’s prior adds to the conceptual and scientific value of these authors’inferential approach. I conclude this note by listing a series of insights brought about by this connection with Ecology.

scholarly journals Can we reestablish a self-sustaining population? A case study on reintroduced Crested Ibis with population viability analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yashuai Zhang ◽  
Fang Wang ◽  
Zhenxia Cui ◽  
Min Li ◽  
Xia Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Wild Population ◽  
Population Viability Analysis ◽  
Population Viability ◽  
Viability Analysis ◽  
Crested Ibis ◽  
Reintroduced Population

Abstract Background One of the most challenging tasks in wildlife conservation and management is clarifying which and how external and intrinsic factors influence wildlife demography and long-term viability. The wild population of the Crested Ibis (Nipponia nippon) has recovered to approximately 4400, and several reintroduction programs have been carried out in China, Japan and Korea. Population viability analysis on this endangered species has been limited to the wild population, showing that the long-term population growth is restricted by the carrying capacity and inbreeding. However, gaps in knowledge of the viability of the reintroduced population and its drivers in the release environment impede the identification of the most effective population-level priorities for aiding in species recovery. Methods The field monitoring data were collected from a reintroduced Crested Ibis population in Ningshan, China from 2007 to 2018. An individual-based VORTEX model (Version 10.3.5.0) was used to predict the future viability of the reintroduced population by incorporating adaptive patterns of ibis movement in relation to catastrophe frequency, mortality and sex ratio. Results The reintroduced population in Ningshan County is unlikely to go extinct in the next 50 years. The population size was estimated to be 367, and the population genetic diversity was estimated to be 0.97. Sensitivity analysis showed that population size and extinction probability were dependent on the carrying capacity and sex ratio. The carrying capacity is the main factor accounting for the population size and genetic diversity, while the sex ratio is the primary factor responsible for the population growth trend. Conclusions A viable population of the Crested Ibis can be established according to population viability analysis. Based on our results, conservation management should prioritize a balanced sex ratio, high-quality habitat and low mortality.

scholarly journals Demographic effects of interacting species: exploring stable coexistence under increased climatic variability in a semiarid shrub community

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana I. García-Cervigón ◽  
Pedro F. Quintana-Ascencio ◽  
Adrián Escudero ◽  
Merari E. Ferrer-Cervantes ◽  
Ana M. Sánchez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Species Coexistence ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Demographic Models ◽  
Shrub Community

AbstractPopulation persistence is strongly determined by climatic variability. Changes in the patterns of climatic events linked to global warming may alter population dynamics, but their effects may be strongly modulated by biotic interactions. Plant populations interact with each other in such a way that responses to climate of a single population may impact the dynamics of the whole community. In this study, we assess how climate variability affects persistence and coexistence of two dominant plant species in a semiarid shrub community on gypsum soils. We use 9 years of demographic data to parameterize demographic models and to simulate population dynamics under different climatic and ecological scenarios. We observe that populations of both coexisting species may respond to common climatic fluctuations both similarly and in idiosyncratic ways, depending on the yearly combination of climatic factors. Biotic interactions (both within and among species) modulate some of their vital rates, but their effects on population dynamics highly depend on climatic fluctuations. Our results indicate that increased levels of climatic variability may alter interspecific relationships. These alterations might potentially affect species coexistence, disrupting competitive hierarchies and ultimately leading to abrupt changes in community composition.

ECPSES: Estimating Critical Population Size in the Presence of Environmental Stochasticity

1987 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 334
Author(s):  
Charles J. Mode ◽  
Marc D. Cain ◽  
Marc E. Jacobson
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity

scholarly journals Population dynamics in northwestern China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xueyan Yang ◽  
Wanxin Li ◽  
Wen Jing ◽  
Chezhuo Gao ◽  
Rui Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Structure ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Northwestern China ◽  
Average Level ◽  
Han Population ◽  
Sex Structure ◽  
Biological Sex

AbstractThis article analyzes the population dynamics in northwestern China from roughly 2010 to 2020. The area’s dynamics showed a slow, stable increase in population size, a stable increase in the population of non-Han ethnic groups, which increased at a more rapidly than the Han population, and population rejuvenation coupled with a population structure that aged. The biological sex structure fluctuated within a balanced range in northwestern China. Urbanization advanced in northwestern China, throughout this period, but the area’s level of urbanization is still significantly lower than the average level of urbanization nationally.

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