Predicting the effects of climate change on bird population dynamics

2019 ◽  
pp. 74-90
Author(s):  
Bernt-Erik Sæther ◽  
Steinar Engen ◽  
Marlène Gamelon ◽  
Vidar Grøtan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Population Estimates ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Statistical Sense ◽  
High Level ◽  
Avian Populations

Climate variation strongly influences fluctuations in size of avian populations. In this chapter, we show that it is difficult to predict how the abundance of birds will respond to climate change. A major reason for this is that most available time series of fluctuations in population size are in a statistical sense short, thus often resulting in large uncertainties in parameter estimates. We therefore argue that reliable population predictions must be based on models that capture how climate change will affect vital rates as well as including other processes (e.g. density-dependences) known to affect the population dynamics of the species in question. Our survey of examples of such forecast studies show that reliable predictions necessarily contain a high level of uncertainty. A major reason for this is that avian population dynamics are strongly influenced by environmental stochasticity, which is for most species, irrespective of their life history, the most important driver of fluctuations in population size. Credible population predictions must therefore assess the effects of such uncertainties as well as biases in population estimates.

scholarly journals Consequences of barriers and changing seasonality on population dynamics and harvest of migratory ungulates

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 595-605
Author(s):  
Bram Van Moorter ◽  
Steinar Engen ◽  
John M. Fryxell ◽  
Manuela Panzacchi ◽  
Erlend B. Nilsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Behavioral Avoidance ◽  
Animal Populations ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Global Threat

AbstractMany animal populations providing ecosystem services, including harvest, live in seasonal environments and migrate between seasonally distinct ranges. Unfortunately, two major sources of human-induced global change threaten these populations: climate change and anthropogenic barriers. Anthropogenic infrastructure developments present a global threat to animal migrations through increased migration mortality or behavioral avoidance. Climate change alters the seasonal and spatial dynamics of resources and therefore the effects of migration on population performance. We formulated a population model with ideal-free migration to investigate changes in population size and harvest yield due to barriers and seasonal dynamics. The model predicted an increasing proportion of migrants when the difference between areas in seasonality or carrying capacity increased. Both migration cost and behavioral avoidance of barriers substantially reduced population size and harvest yields. Not surprisingly, the negative effects of barriers were largest when the population benefited most from migration. Despite the overall decline in harvest yield from a migratory population due to barriers, barriers could result in locally increased yield from the resident population following reduced competition from migrants. Our approach and results enhance the understanding of how global warming and infrastructure development worldwide may change population dynamics and harvest offtake affecting livelihoods and rural economies.

Population Dynamics and Management of the Northwest Atlantic Harp Seal (Phoca groenlandica)

1983 ◽  
Vol 40 (7) ◽  
pp. 919-932 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derek A. Roff ◽  
W. Don Bowen
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Washington Dc ◽  
Natural Mortality ◽  
Total Catch ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Index Method ◽  
Phoca Groenlandica ◽  
Potential Sources

Previous methods of estimating population size and natural mortality rate in harp seals (Phoca groenlandica) are reviewed. Excepting the method of Beddington and Williams (Marine Mammal Comm., Washington, DC., Rep. MMC 79-03, 1980) all previous methods rely heavily upon the survival index method of estimating pup production. We describe the mathematical rationale underlying this method and indicate potential sources of bias. Beddington and Williams' analysis produces a combination of vital rates for 1952 that would not enable a population to persist in the absence of hunting. This suggests that the method may not be able to estimate these parameters accurately. This conclusion is supported by several unpublished analyses. We present an alternative method of analysis that is based on the concept of maximum likelihood. We estimate the rate of natural mortality and trend in 1 + population size from 1967 to 1980, using mark–recapture estimates of pup production in the late 1970s and the observed ratio of the survival of adjacent cohorts in the late 1960s and early 1970s to constrain population trajectories from a simulation model. From this analysis we conclude that the population is increasing and that the present total catch may be substantially smaller than the replacement yield.

scholarly journals Reconstructing population dynamics of a threatened marine mammal using multiple data sets

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A. Hostetler ◽  
Julien Martin ◽  
Michael Kosempa ◽  
Holly H. Edwards ◽  
Kari A. Rood ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Marine Mammal ◽  
Conservation Status ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Multiple Data Sets

AbstractModels of marine mammal population dynamics have been used extensively to predict abundance. A less common application of these models is to reconstruct historical population dynamics, filling in gaps in observation data by integrating information from multiple sources. We developed an integrated population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) to reconstruct its population dynamics in the southwest region of the state over the past 20 years. Our model improved precision of key parameter estimates and permitted inference on poorly known parameters. Population growth was slow (averaging 1.02; 95% credible interval 1.01–1.03) but not steady, and an unusual mortality event in 2013 led to an estimated net loss of 332 (217–466) manatees. Our analyses showed that precise estimates of abundance could be derived from estimates of vital rates and a few input estimates of abundance, which may mean costly surveys to estimate abundance don’t need to be conducted as frequently. Our study also shows that retrospective analyses can be useful to: (1) model the transient dynamics of age distribution; (2) assess and communicate the conservation status of wild populations; and (3) improve our understanding of environmental effects on population dynamics and thus enhance our ability to forecast.

scholarly journals Climate and density-dependent population dynamics: Lessons from a simple high-Arctic ecosystem

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominique Fauteux ◽  
Audun Stien ◽  
Nigel Yoccoz ◽  
Eva Fuglei ◽  
Rolf Ims
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Food Web ◽  
High Amplitude ◽  
High Arctic ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Food Web Structure ◽  
Annual Cycles ◽  
Density Dependent ◽  
The Impact

The strikingly diverse population dynamics of herbivorous small mammals, ranging from high-amplitude, multi-annual cycles to relatively stable dynamics, have puzzled ecologists for a century. Theory predicts that this diversity is shaped by density-dependent food web interactions and stochastic weather events. Recent disrupted cycles through amplitude dampening have been attributed to climate change. However, empirical testing has been hampered by the complexity of the food webs in which these herbivores normally are found. Here we analyze population dynamics of a grazing vole species in a uniquely simple high-Arctic food web without top-down regulation. In accordance with theory, the population dynamics was mostly ruled by overcompensatory density-dependence in winter that without environmental stochasticity would have yielded seasonality driven high-amplitude 2-year cycles. In this simple food web, rain-on-snow events disrupted cyclicity, but not through amplitude dampening. Our case study highlights how food web structure may modify the impact of climate change on population dynamics.

scholarly journals Phenotypic plasticity and population viability: the importance of environmental predictability

2010 ◽  
Vol 277 (1699) ◽  
pp. 3391-3400 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas E. Reed ◽  
Robin S. Waples ◽  
Daniel E. Schindler ◽  
Jeffrey J. Hard ◽  
Michael T. Kinnison
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Phenotypic Plasticity ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Environmental Variation ◽  
Population Viability ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Demographic Models ◽  
Explicit Consideration ◽  
Population Viability Analyses

Phenotypic plasticity plays a key role in modulating how environmental variation influences population dynamics, but we have only rudimentary understanding of how plasticity interacts with the magnitude and predictability of environmental variation to affect population dynamics and persistence. We developed a stochastic individual-based model, in which phenotypes could respond to a temporally fluctuating environmental cue and fitness depended on the match between the phenotype and a randomly fluctuating trait optimum, to assess the absolute fitness and population dynamic consequences of plasticity under different levels of environmental stochasticity and cue reliability. When cue and optimum were tightly correlated, plasticity buffered absolute fitness from environmental variability, and population size remained high and relatively invariant. In contrast, when this correlation weakened and environmental variability was high, strong plasticity reduced population size, and populations with excessively strong plasticity had substantially greater extinction probability. Given that environments might become more variable and unpredictable in the future owing to anthropogenic influences, reaction norms that evolved under historic selective regimes could imperil populations in novel or changing environmental contexts. We suggest that demographic models (e.g. population viability analyses) would benefit from a more explicit consideration of how phenotypic plasticity influences population responses to environmental change.

scholarly journals A parametric interpretation of Bayesian Nonparametric Inference from Gene Genealogies: linking ecological, population genetics and evolutionary processes

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
José M. Ponciano
Keyword(s):  
Population Genetics ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Bayesian Nonparametric ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Ecological Principles ◽  
Gp Model ◽  
Stochastic Population Dynamics

AbstractUsing a nonparametric Bayesian approach Palacios and Minin [1] dramatically improved the accuracy, precision of Bayesian inference of population size trajectories from gene genealogies. These authors proposed an extension of a Gaussian Process (GP) nonparametric inferential method for the intensity function of non-homogeneous Poisson processes. They found that not only the statistical properties of the estimators were improved with their method, but also, that key aspects of the demographic histories were recovered. The authors’ work represents the first Bayesian nonparametric solution to this inferential problem because they specify a convenient prior belief without a particular functional form on the population trajectory. Their approach works so well and provides such a profound understanding of the biological process, that the question arises as to how truly “biology-free” their approach really is. Using well-known concepts of stochastic population dynamics, here I demonstrate that in fact, Palacios and Minin’s GP model can be cast as a parametric population growth model with density dependence and environmental stochasticity. Making this link between population genetics and stochastic population dynamics modeling provides novel insights into eliciting biologically meaningful priors for the trajectory of the effective population size. The results presented here also bring novel understanding of GP as models for the evolution of a trait. Thus, the ecological principles foundation of Palacios and Minin [1]’s prior adds to the conceptual and scientific value of these authors’inferential approach. I conclude this note by listing a series of insights brought about by this connection with Ecology.

scholarly journals Building integral projection models with non-independent vital rates

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yik Leung Fung ◽  
Ken Newman ◽  
Ruth King ◽  
Perry de Valpine
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Temporal Variation ◽  
Life History Evolution ◽  
Ovis Aries ◽  
Individual Heterogeneity ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Integral Projection Models ◽  
Integral Projection ◽  
Demographic Processes

Population dynamics are functions of several demographic processes including survival, reproduction, somatic growth, and maturation. The rates or probabilities for these processes can vary by time, by location, and by individual. These processes can co-vary and interact to varying degrees, e.g., an animal can only reproduce when it is in a particular maturation state. Population dynamics models that treat the processes as independent may yield somewhat biased or imprecise parameter estimates, as well as predictions of population abundances or densities. However, commonly used integral projection models (IPMs) typically assume independence across these demographic processes. We examine several approaches for modelling between process dependence in IPMs, and include cases where the processes co-vary as a function of time (temporal variation), co-vary within each individual (individual heterogeneity), and combinations of these (temporal variation and individual heterogeneity). We compare our methods to conventional IPMs, which treat vital rates independent, using simulations and a case study of Soay sheep (Ovis aries). In particular, our results indicate that correlation between vital rates can moderately affect variability of some population-level statistics. Therefore, including such dependent structures is generally advisable when fitting IPMs to ascertain whether or not such between vital rate dependencies exist, which in turn can have subsequent impact on population management or life-history evolution.

التغير المناخي واثره في المقنن المائي لمحصول العنب في محافظة ديالى

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (34) ◽  
pp. 391-422
Author(s):  
اشواق حسن حميد صالح
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Solar Brightness ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Climate Station ◽  
The Times ◽  
High Level ◽  
Very High

Climate change and its impact on water resources is the problem of the times. Therefore, this study is concerned with the subject of climate change and its impact on the water ration of the grape harvest in Diyala Governorate. The study was based on the data of the Khanaqin climate station for the period 1973-2017, (1986-2017) due to lack of data at governorate level. The general trend of the elements of the climate and its effect on the water formula was extracted. The equation of change was extracted for the duration of the study. The statistical analysis was also used between the elements of the climate (actual brightness, normal temperature, micro and maximum degrees Celsius, wind speed m / s, relative humidity% The results of the statistical analysis confirm that the water ration for the study area is based mainly on the X7 evaporation / netting variable, which is affected by a set of independent variables X1 Solar Brightness X4 X5 Extreme Temperature Wind Speed ​​3X Minimal Temperature and Very High Level .

Climate Justice

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Climate Justice ◽  
Policy Discourse ◽  
Mary Robinson ◽  
The Public ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
To Come ◽  
Run Up ◽  
High Level

Climate justice requires sharing the burdens and benefits of climate change and its resolution equitably and fairly. It brings together justice between generations and justice within generations. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals summit in September 2015, and the Conference of Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris in December 2015, brought climate justice center stage in global discussions. In the run up to Paris, Mary Robinson, former president of Ireland and the UN Secretary General’s Special Envoy for Climate Change, instituted the Climate Justice Dialogue. The editors of this volume, an economist and a philosopher, served on the High Level Advisory Committee of the Climate Justice Dialogue. They noted the overlap and mutual enforcement between the economic and philosophical discourses on climate justice. But they also noted the great need for these strands to come together to support the public and policy discourse. This volume is the result.

scholarly journals Demographic effects of interacting species: exploring stable coexistence under increased climatic variability in a semiarid shrub community

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana I. García-Cervigón ◽  
Pedro F. Quintana-Ascencio ◽  
Adrián Escudero ◽  
Merari E. Ferrer-Cervantes ◽  
Ana M. Sánchez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Species Coexistence ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Demographic Models ◽  
Shrub Community

AbstractPopulation persistence is strongly determined by climatic variability. Changes in the patterns of climatic events linked to global warming may alter population dynamics, but their effects may be strongly modulated by biotic interactions. Plant populations interact with each other in such a way that responses to climate of a single population may impact the dynamics of the whole community. In this study, we assess how climate variability affects persistence and coexistence of two dominant plant species in a semiarid shrub community on gypsum soils. We use 9 years of demographic data to parameterize demographic models and to simulate population dynamics under different climatic and ecological scenarios. We observe that populations of both coexisting species may respond to common climatic fluctuations both similarly and in idiosyncratic ways, depending on the yearly combination of climatic factors. Biotic interactions (both within and among species) modulate some of their vital rates, but their effects on population dynamics highly depend on climatic fluctuations. Our results indicate that increased levels of climatic variability may alter interspecific relationships. These alterations might potentially affect species coexistence, disrupting competitive hierarchies and ultimately leading to abrupt changes in community composition.

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