scholarly journals Managing the effects of extreme sub-daily rainfall and flash floods—a practitioner's perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 379 (2195) ◽  
pp. 20190550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murray Dale
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Short Period ◽  
The Uk

Extreme sub-daily rainfall affects flooding in the UK and urban pollution management. Water utilities in the UK need to understand the characteristics of this rainfall, and how it may change in the future in order to plan for and manage these impacts. There is also significant interest from infrastructure owners and urban authorities exposed to flood risk from short-period, intense rainfall events. This paper describes how UK flood risk guidance incorporates allowances for climate change and how recent research using convection-permitting climate models is helping to inform this guidance. The guidance documents are used by engineers and scientists in the modelling of sewer networks, smaller river catchments and urban drainage areas and provide values to ‘uplift' rainfall event data used as model inputs to reflect climate change model projections. With an increasing focus on continuous simulation modelling using time series rainfall, research into adjusting time series data to reflect future rainfall characteristics in convection-permitting climate models is discussed. Other knowledge gaps for practitioners discussed are the potential changing shape (profile) of future rainfall events and future changes in antecedent wetness conditions. The author explains the challenge of developing simple and effective guidance for practitioners from the complex scientific output. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.

A history of university income in the United Kingdom and Australia, 1922–2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 229-248
Author(s):  
Tamson Pietsch
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
History Of University ◽  
History Of ◽  
Strategic Influence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Comparable Time

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to create comparable time series data on university income in Australia and the UK that might be used as a resource for those seeking to understand the changing funding profile of universities in the two countries and for those seeking to investigate how such data were produced and utilised.Design/methodology/approachA statistical analysis of university income from all sources in the UK and Australia.FindingsThe article produces a new time series for Australia and a comparable time series for the UK. It suggests some of the ways these data related to broader patterns of economic change, sketches the possibility of strategic influence, and outlines some of their limitations.Originality/valueThis is the first study to systematically create a time series on Australian university income across the twentieth century and present it alongside a comparable dataset for the UK.

scholarly journals Freshwater-salt water interface dynamics during pumping tests

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongcheol Kim ◽  
Heesung Yoon ◽  
Soo-Hyung Lee
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Coastal Aquifer ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Temporal Change ◽  
Salt Water ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Water Interface ◽  
Aquifer Management ◽  
Pumping Tests ◽  
Short Period

Freshwater-salt water interface (FSI) location is very important information for decision maker in managing coastal aquifer system, however, its temporal change have been hard to get using conventional method such as EC monitoring at one or several fixed depths, geophysical logging or remote sensing techniques. A FSI tracking device, which has density between freshwater and salt water and hence can moves up and down as the freshwater-salt water transition zone moves, is used to get a temporal change data for the interface during several different types of pumping tests, which were performed at coastal monitoring wells in Seocheon, middle west of Korean Peninsula. Four short period pumping tests, three long-period pumping tests, one step-drawdown test, one reverse step-drawdown test were performed at different pumping rate ranging 19.86 to 48.71 m3/d for different pumping period of 60 minutes to 2851 minutes. Time series data shows that the Interface-Egg rises up from -86.0 to -77.6 m amsl after 24-hours pumping and to -40.8 m amsl after 2-days pumping and freshwater lens thickness is getting thinner from 88.1 m to 78.4 m after 24-hours pumping and then 42.3 m after 2-days pumping. These salt water up-coning phenomena are supported by EC profiles which were logged before and after the whole pumping periods. Time series data tell us that salt water upconing in the pumping well happens quickly and recovers at a very slow rate which is about 1.5 cm/d at 3 months after stopping pumping. The time series data of groundwater head and the interface-Egg’s location also shows that there is a tidal influence between pumping periods. The FSI tracker is expected to be practically applied to coastal aquifer management preventing from salt water intrusion, especially at dynamically pumping area for agricultural and/or domestic water supply.

Short Period Oscillations in Acturus, Aldebaran, and Pollux

1988 ◽  
Vol 132 ◽  
pp. 291-294
Author(s):  
Peter H. Smith ◽  
Robert S. McMillan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Preliminary Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Careful Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Stellar Velocity ◽  
Clean Algorithm ◽  
K Giants

A total of 48 nights of time series data have been obtained for the K giants: Arcturus, Pollux, and Aldebaran. A careful analysis of both single and multi–night sets using the earth's motion as a velocity calibrator has yielded stellar velocity time series accurate to ± 3 m/s per observation. Periodogram analyses of these sets have revealed the existence of oscillations with periods near 2.5 hrs and amplitudes of ± 5 m/s for both Pollux and Aldebaran, but not for Arcturus. Preliminary analysis of a 5-night set for Pollux using the CLEAN algorithm suggests at least three modes separated by about 35 microHertz.

scholarly journals Splendide Mendax: False Label Claims About High and Rising Alcohol Content of Wine

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 275-313 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian M. Alston ◽  
Kate B. Fuller ◽  
James T. Lapsley ◽  
George Soleas ◽  
Kabir P. Tumber
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Preferences ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Alcohol Content ◽  
Demand Shifts ◽  
Expert Ratings ◽  
Jel Classifications

AbstractAre wine alcohol labels accurate? If not, why? We explore the high and rising alcohol content of wine and examine incentives for false labeling, including the roles of climate, evolving consumer preferences, and expert ratings. We draw on international time-series data from a large number of countries that experienced different patterns of climate change and influences of policy and demand shifts. We find systematic patterns that suggest that rising wine alcohol content may be a nuisance by-product of producer responses to perceived market preferences for wines having more-intense flavours, possibly in conjunction with evolving climate. (JEL Classifications: D22, L15, L66, Q18, Q54).

scholarly journals Estimation of the Future Probable Precipitation based on the Assumption of Non-Stationarity in Seoul

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-29
Author(s):  
Minsu Jeong ◽  
Taesam Lee ◽  
JooHeon Lee ◽  
Hyeonseok Choi ◽  
Sunkwon Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Differential Evolution ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
The Future

In this study, an estimation of the future probable rainfall in Seoul, Korea, was performed, using non-stationary frequency analysis according to climate change and it was compared with the current probable rainfall. Hourly rainfall data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration with durations of 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, 24, and 48-h were used as input. For the future projection of precipitation, the RCP 8.5 scenario was selected with the same durations. Moreover, the future hourly rainfall was extracted from using the daily precipitation from 29 Global Climate Models (GCMs), based on the statistical temporal down-scaling method and their corresponding bias corrections. Subsequently, the annual maximum precipitation was extracted for each year. In this study, both stationary and non-stationary frequency analysis was applied based on the observed and predicted time series data sets. In particular, for the non-stationary frequency analysis, the Differential Evolution Markov Chain technique, which combines the Bayesian-based Differential Evolution and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, was adopted. Finally, the current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves were derived from the optimal probability distribution, and each probable rainfall was estimated. The results of the 29-scenario are presented with quantile estimations. The non-stationary frequency analysis results for Seoul revealed rainfalls of 94.4 mm/h for 30 y, 101.7 mm/h for 50 y, and 111.5 mm/h for 100 y return periods. The average value of the 29-GCM model ensemble was estimated to be approximately 5 mm/h higher than that obtained from the stationary frequency analysis. Considering the changes in hydrological characteristics due to climate change in Seoul, the results of this study could be utilized to pro-actively respond to natural disasters due to such phenomena.

scholarly journals Climate Change Driven Food Inflation in Ethiopia?

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-22
Author(s):  
Berhe Gebregewergs Hagos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Average Price ◽  
Ceteris Paribus ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Food Inflation

The research dealt with the relationships between temperature variability and price of food stuffs in Tigrai using 84 months collected time series data thereby applied a Univariate econometric tool and finite Distributed Lag Model in defining the variables and outcome of the study. As a result, the econometric regression analysis witnessed that a 1oC temperature rise contributed the average price of food stuffs such as barley price rose up by 80 percent, maize 186 percent, sorghum close to 275 percent, wheat 60 percent, and 170 percent in white Teff over the years, ceteris paribus.

scholarly journals Empirical estimate of the signal content of Holocene temperature proxy records

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Reschke ◽  
Kira Rehfeld ◽  
Thomas Laepple
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Past Climate ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Model Time Series ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Temperature Proxy

Abstract. Proxy records from climate archives provide evidence about past climate changes, but the recorded signal is affected by non-climate related effects as well as time uncertainty. As proxy based climate reconstructions are frequently used to test climate models and to quantitatively infer past climate, we need to improve our understanding of the proxy records’ signal content as well as the uncertainties involved. In this study, we empirically estimate signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) of temperature proxy records used in global compilations of the mid to late Holocene. This is achieved through a comparison of proxy time series from close-by sites of three compilations and model time series data at the proxy sites from two transient Holocene climate model simulations. In all comparisons, we found the mean correlations of the proxy time series on centennial to millennial time scales to be rather low (R 

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