scholarly journals Containing Emerging Epidemics: a Quantitative Comparison of Quarantine and Symptom Monitoring

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corey M Peak ◽  
Lauren M Childs ◽  
Yonatan H Grad ◽  
Caroline O Buckee
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Natural History ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Healthcare Setting ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Symptom Monitoring ◽  
History Of ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
The Relationship

ABSTRACTStrategies for containing an emerging infectious disease outbreak must be non-pharmaceutical when drugs or vaccines for the pathogen do not yet exist or are unavailable. The success of these non-pharmaceutical strategies will depend not only on the effectiveness of quarantine or other isolation measures but also on the epidemiological characteristics of the infection. However, there is currently no systematic framework to assess the relationship between different containment strategies and the natural history and epidemiological dynamics of the pathogen. Here, we compare the effectiveness of quarantine and symptom monitoring, implemented via contact tracing, in controlling epidemics using an agent-based branching model. We examine the relationship between epidemic containment and the disease dynamics of symptoms and infectiousness for seven case study diseases with diverse natural histories including Ebola, Influenza A, and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). We show that the comparative effectiveness of symptom monitoring and quarantine depends critically on the natural history of the infectious disease, its inherent transmissibility, and the intervention feasibility in the particular healthcare setting. The benefit of quarantine over symptom monitoring is generally maximized for fast-course diseases, but we show the conditions under which symptom monitoring alone can control certain outbreaks. This quantitative framework can guide policy-makers on how best to use non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain emerging outbreaks and prioritize research during an outbreak of a novel pathogen.SIGNIFICANCEQuarantine and symptom monitoring of contacts with suspected exposure to an infectious disease are key interventions for the control of emerging epidemics; however, there does not yet exist a quantitative framework for comparing the control performance of each. Here, we use a mathematical model of seven case study diseases to show how the choice of intervention is influenced by the natural history of the infectious disease, its inherent transmissibility, and the intervention feasibility in the particular healthcare setting. We use this information to identify the most important characteristics of the disease and setting that need to be characterized for an emerging pathogen in order to make an informed decision between quarantine and symptom monitoring.

scholarly journals Comparing nonpharmaceutical interventions for containing emerging epidemics

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (15) ◽  
pp. 4023-4028 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corey M. Peak ◽  
Lauren M. Childs ◽  
Yonatan H. Grad ◽  
Caroline O. Buckee
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Natural History ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Healthcare Setting ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Symptom Monitoring ◽  
History Of ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
The Relationship

Strategies for containing an emerging infectious disease outbreak must be nonpharmaceutical when drugs or vaccines for the pathogen do not yet exist or are unavailable. The success of these nonpharmaceutical strategies will depend on not only the effectiveness of isolation measures but also the epidemiological characteristics of the infection. However, there is currently no systematic framework to assess the relationship between different containment strategies and the natural history and epidemiological dynamics of the pathogen. Here, we compare the effectiveness of quarantine and symptom monitoring, implemented via contact tracing, in controlling epidemics using an agent-based branching model. We examine the relationship between epidemic containment and the disease dynamics of symptoms and infectiousness for seven case-study diseases with diverse natural histories, including Ebola, influenza A, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). We show that the comparative effectiveness of symptom monitoring and quarantine depends critically on the natural history of the infectious disease, its inherent transmissibility, and the intervention feasibility in the particular healthcare setting. The benefit of quarantine over symptom monitoring is generally maximized for fast-course diseases, but we show the conditions under which symptom monitoring alone can control certain outbreaks. This quantitative framework can guide policymakers on how best to use nonpharmaceutical interventions and prioritize research during an outbreak of an emerging pathogen.

scholarly journals The Relationship Between Coronary Calcification and the Natural History of Coronary Artery Disease

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han-Young Jin ◽  
Jonathan R. Weir-McCall ◽  
Jonathon A. Leipsic ◽  
Jang-Won Son ◽  
Stephanie L. Sellers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Artery Disease ◽  
Coronary Artery ◽  
Natural History ◽  
Coronary Calcification ◽  
History Of ◽  
Artery Disease ◽  
The Relationship

scholarly journals Connecting Reproductive Rights, Democracy, and the Rule of Law: Lessons from Poland in Times of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 1072-1097
Author(s):  
Atina Krajewska
Keyword(s):  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Reproductive Rights ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
Abortion Law ◽  
Polish Society ◽  
History Of ◽  
Constitutional Tribunal ◽  
Litmus Test ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThis article examines the relationship between reproductive rights, democracy, and the rule of law in transitional societies. As a case study, it examines the development of abortion law in Poland. The article makes three primary claims. First, it argues that the relationship between reproductive rights and the rule of law in Poland came clearly into view through the abortion judgment K 1/20, handed down by the Constitutional Tribunal in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic. The judgment and the context in which it was issued and published are interpreted as reflections of deep-lying processes and problems in Polish society. Consequently, second, the article argues that analysis of the history of reproductive rights in recent decades in Poland reveals weak institutionalization of the rule of law. This is manifest in the ways in which different professional groups, especially doctors and lawyers, have addressed questions regarding abortion law. Therefore, third, the article argues that any assessment of the rule of law should take into account how powerful professional actors and organizations interact with the law. The Polish case study shows that reproductive rights should be seen as important parts of a “litmus test,” which we can use to examine the efficacy of democratic transitions and the quality of the democracies in which such transitions result.

Armenian prosody in typology and diachrony

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica DeLisi
Keyword(s):  
Historical Linguistics ◽  
Secondary Stress ◽  
Modern Language ◽  
Primary Stress ◽  
Prosodic Word ◽  
History Of ◽  
Final Syllable ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Stress Patterns

AbstractThis paper examines the relationship between typology and historical linguistics through a case study from the history of Armenian, where two different stress systems are found in the modern language. The first is a penult system with no associated secondary stress ([… σ́σ]ω). The other, the so-called hammock pattern, has primary stress on the final syllable and secondary stress on the initial syllable of the prosodic word ([σ̀ … σ́]ω). Although penult stress patterns are by far more typologically common than the hammock pattern in the world’s languages, I will argue that the hammock pattern must be reconstructed for the period of shared innovation, the Proto-Armenian period.

scholarly journals Utilization of Natural History Information in Evidence based Herpetoculture: A Proposed Protocol and Case Study with Hydrodynastes gigas (False Water Cobra)

Animals ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 2021
Author(s):  
Zachary J. Loughman
Keyword(s):  
Natural History ◽  
Captive Breeding ◽  
Scientific Literature ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Scientific Inference ◽  
New Information ◽  
History Information ◽  
History Of ◽  
Available Information

Herpetocultural practices are based on norms driven by economy of space and time for keepers, with little scientific inference backing their practice. In recent years, a subset of herpetoculturalists have promoted evidence-based husbandry that relies on science and experimental design to generate husbandry practice. A theoretical framework and protocol are proposed herein that enables any individual who has access to the internet the ability to use various outlets of natural history information (scientific literature databases, social media sources, and weather websites) and previously published husbandry reports as evidence to drive the creation of novel herpetocultural practice. A case study is provided which compares readily available information on the care of Hydrodynastes gigas (false water cobra), such as online care sheets for the species, with the proposed evidence based herpetocultural protocol founded on natural history information and published care and captive breeding reports. Results were assessed for protocol efficacy and determined that the natural history informed evidence-based approach increased animal welfare and generated new information specific to the natural history of H. gigas.

Being black in Australia: a case study of intergroup relations

Race & Class ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 38-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Val Colic-Peisker ◽  
Farida Tilbury
Keyword(s):  
Predominantly White ◽  
Race Relations ◽  
Intergroup Relations ◽  
Youth Violence ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Racial Hierarchy ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Two Populations

This article presents a case study in Australia's race relations, focusing on tensions between urban Aborigines and recently resettled African refugees, particularly among young people. Both of these groups are of low socio-economic status and are highly visible in the context of a predominantly white Australia. The relationship between them, it is argued, reflects the history of strained race relations in modern Australia and a growing antipathy to multiculturalism. Specific reasons for the tensions between the two populations are suggested, in particular, perceptions of competition for material (housing, welfare, education) and symbolic (position in a racial hierarchy) resources. Finally, it is argued that the phenomenon is deeply embedded in class and race issues, rather than simply in youth violence.

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