scholarly journals Climate change will drive novel cross-species viral transmission

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin J. Carlson ◽  
Gregory F. Albery ◽  
Cory Merow ◽  
Christopher H. Trisos ◽  
Casey M. Zipfel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Global Environmental Change ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Mammal Species ◽  
Dispersal Capacity ◽  
Viral Surveillance ◽  
Geographic Range Shifts

AbstractAt least 10,000 species of mammal virus are estimated to have the potential to spread in human populations, but the vast majority are currently circulating in wildlife, largely undescribed and undetected by disease outbreak surveillance1,2,3. In addition, changing climate and land use are already driving geographic range shifts in wildlife, producing novel species assemblages and opportunities for viral sharing between previously isolated species4,5. In some cases, this will inevitably facilitate spillover into humans6,7—a possible mechanistic link between global environmental change and emerging zoonotic disease8. Here, we map potential hotspots of viral sharing, using a phylogeographic model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographic range shifts for 3,870 mammal species under climate change and land use scenarios for the year 2070. Range-shifting mammal species are predicted to aggregate at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, driving the cross-species transmission of novel viruses at least 4,000 times. Counter to expectations, holding warming under 2°C within the century does not reduce new viral sharing, due to greater range expansions—highlighting the need to invest in surveillance even in a low-warming future. Most projected viral sharing is driven by diverse hyperreservoirs (rodents and bats) and large-bodied predators (carnivores). Because of their unique dispersal capacity, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing, and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that could facilitate future emergence in humans. Our findings highlight the urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking range shifts, especially in tropical countries that harbor the most emerging zoonoses.

scholarly journals Biogeography Meets Niche Modeling: Inferring the Role of Deep Time Climate Change When Data Is Limited

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria Culshaw ◽  
Mario Mairal ◽  
Isabel Sanmartín
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Deep Time ◽  
Climatic Oscillations ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Extinction Events ◽  
Geographic Range Shifts

Geographic range shifts are one major organism response to climate change, especially if the rate of climate change is higher than that of species adaptation. Ecological niche models (ENM) and biogeographic inferences are often used in estimating the effects of climatic oscillations on species range dynamics. ENMs can be used to track climatic suitable areas over time, but have often been limited to shallow timescales; biogeographic inference can reach greater evolutionary depth, but often lacks spatial resolution. Here, we present a simple approach that treats them as independent and complementary sources of evidence, which, when used in partnership, can be employed to reconstruct geographic range shifts over deep evolutionary timescales. For testing this, we chose two extreme African disjunctions: Camptoloma (Scrophulariaceae) and Canarina (Campanulaceae), each comprising of three species disjunctly distributed in Macaronesia and eastern/southern Africa. Using inferred ancestral ranges in tandem with preindustrial and paleoclimate ENM hindcastings, we show that the disjunct pattern was the result of fragmentation and extinction events linked to Neogene aridification cycles. Our results highlight the importance of considering temporal resolution when building ENMs for rare endemics with small population sizes and restricted climatic tolerances such as Camptoloma, for which models built on averaged monthly variables were more informative than those based on annual bioclimatic variables. Additionally, we show that biogeographic information can be used as truncation threshold criteria for building ENMs in the distant past. Our approach is suitable when there is sparse sampling on species occurrences and associated patterns of genetic variation, such as in the case of ancient endemics with widely disjunct distributions as a result of climate change.

Species traits and climate velocity explain geographic range shifts in an ocean-warming hotspot

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 944-953 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer M. Sunday ◽  
Gretta T. Pecl ◽  
Stewart Frusher ◽  
Alistair J. Hobday ◽  
Nicole Hill ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Species Traits ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Climate Velocity ◽  
Geographic Range Shifts

Facilitating climate-change-induced range shifts across continental land-use barriers

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 1586-1595 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cassandra M. Robillard ◽  
Laura E. Coristine ◽  
Rosana N. Soares ◽  
Jeremy T. Kerr
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Range Shifts

Assessing potential effects of land use and climate change on mammal distributions in northern Thailand

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (6) ◽  
pp. 522 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongyut Trisurat ◽  
Budsabong Kanchanasaka ◽  
Holger Kreft
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Species Richness ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Combined Effects ◽  
Mammal Species ◽  
Effects Of Land Use

Context Tropical ecosystems are widely recognised for their high species richness and outstanding concentrations of rare and endemic species. Previous studies either focussed on the effects of deforestation or climate change, whereas studies on the combined effects of these two major threats are limited. Aims This research aimed to model current and future distributions of medium- to large-sized mammal species on the basis of different land-use and climate-change scenarios in 2050 and to assess whether the predicted effects of land-use change are greater than those of climate change and whether the combined effects of these drivers are greater than those of either individual driver. Methods The present article demonstrates a method for combining nationwide wildlife-inventory data, spatially explicit species-distribution models, current and predicted future bioclimatic variables, other biophysical factors and human disturbance to map distributions of mammal species on the basis of different land-use and climate-change scenarios and to assess the role of protected areas in conservation planning. Key results Seventeen medium- to large-sized mammal species were selected for modelling. Most selected species were predicted to lose suitable habitat if the remaining forest cover declines from the current level of 57% to 50% in 2050. The predicted effects of deforestation were stronger than the effects of climate change. When climate and land-use change were combined, the predicted impacts were more severe. Most species would lose suitable habitat and the average shift in species distribution was greater than 40%. Conclusions The predicted effects were positive for only a few species and negative for most species. Current and future centres of mammal-species richness were predicted in large and contiguous protected forests and the average contribution of existing and proposed protected areas in protecting the focal species will increase from 73% to 80% across all scenarios. Implications The present research advances the current understanding of the ecology of 17 medium- to large-sized mammal species with conservation relevance and the factors that affect their distributions at the landscape scale. In addition, the research demonstrated that spatially explicit models and protected areas are effective means to contribute to protection of mammal species in current and future land-use and climate-change scenarios.

scholarly journals Impact of Urbanization and Land-Use Change on Surface Climate in Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, 1988–2008

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaowei Yao ◽  
Zhanqi Wang ◽  
Hua Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Global Environmental Change ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Regional Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Land-use/land cover change (LUCC) is one of the fundamental causes of global environmental change. In recent years, understanding the regional climate impact of LUCC has become a hot-discussed topic worldwide. Some studies have explored LUCC impact on regional climate in specific cities, provinces, or farming areas. However, the quick-urbanized areas, which are highly influenced by human activities, have the most severe land-use changes in developing countries, and their climatic impact cannot be ignored. This study aims to identify the impact of land-use change coupled with urbanization on regional temperature and precipitation in the metropolitan areas of middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China by means of spatial analysis and numeric methods. Based on the exploration of land-use change and climate change during 1988–2008, the impact of land-use transition from non-built-up area to built-up area on temperature and precipitation was analyzed. The results indicated that the land-use conversion has affected the regional temperature with an increasing effect in the study area, while the influence on precipitation was not so significant. The results can provide useful information for spatial planning policies in consideration of regional climate change.

scholarly journals Towards more integration of physiology, dispersal and land-use change to understand the responses of species to climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 224 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. jeb238352
Author(s):  
Christian Hof
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Global Change ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Extrinsic Factors ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Dispersal Capacity ◽  
Biodiversity Crisis

ABSTRACTThe accelerating biodiversity crisis, for which climate change has become an important driver, urges the scientific community for answers to the question of whether and how species are capable of responding successfully to rapidly changing climatic conditions. For a better understanding and more realistic predictions of species' and biodiversity responses, the consideration of extrinsic (i.e. environment-related) and intrinsic (i.e. organism-related) factors is important, among which four appear to be particularly crucial: climate change and land-use change, as extrinsic factors, as well as physiology and dispersal capacity, as intrinsic factors. Here, I argue that these four factors should be considered in an integrative way, but that the scientific community has not yet been very successful in doing so. A quantitative literature review revealed a generally low level of integration within global change biology, with a pronounced gap especially between the field of physiology and other (sub)disciplines. After a discussion of potential reasons for this unfortunate lack of integration, some of which may relate to key deficits e.g. in the reward and incentive systems of academia, I suggest a few ideas that might help to overcome some of the barriers between separated research communities. Furthermore, I list several examples for promising research along the integration frontier, after which I outline some research questions that could become relevant if one is to push the boundary of integration among disciplines, of data and methods, and across scales even further – for a better understanding and more reliable predictions of species and biodiversity in a world of global change.

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