Species traits and climate velocity explain geographic range shifts in an ocean-warming hotspot

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 944-953 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer M. Sunday ◽  
Gretta T. Pecl ◽  
Stewart Frusher ◽  
Alistair J. Hobday ◽  
Nicole Hill ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Species Traits ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Climate Velocity ◽  
Geographic Range Shifts

scholarly journals Climate change will drive novel cross-species viral transmission

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin J. Carlson ◽  
Gregory F. Albery ◽  
Cory Merow ◽  
Christopher H. Trisos ◽  
Casey M. Zipfel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Global Environmental Change ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Mammal Species ◽  
Dispersal Capacity ◽  
Viral Surveillance ◽  
Geographic Range Shifts

AbstractAt least 10,000 species of mammal virus are estimated to have the potential to spread in human populations, but the vast majority are currently circulating in wildlife, largely undescribed and undetected by disease outbreak surveillance1,2,3. In addition, changing climate and land use are already driving geographic range shifts in wildlife, producing novel species assemblages and opportunities for viral sharing between previously isolated species4,5. In some cases, this will inevitably facilitate spillover into humans6,7—a possible mechanistic link between global environmental change and emerging zoonotic disease8. Here, we map potential hotspots of viral sharing, using a phylogeographic model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographic range shifts for 3,870 mammal species under climate change and land use scenarios for the year 2070. Range-shifting mammal species are predicted to aggregate at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, driving the cross-species transmission of novel viruses at least 4,000 times. Counter to expectations, holding warming under 2°C within the century does not reduce new viral sharing, due to greater range expansions—highlighting the need to invest in surveillance even in a low-warming future. Most projected viral sharing is driven by diverse hyperreservoirs (rodents and bats) and large-bodied predators (carnivores). Because of their unique dispersal capacity, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing, and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that could facilitate future emergence in humans. Our findings highlight the urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking range shifts, especially in tropical countries that harbor the most emerging zoonoses.

scholarly journals Incorporating Population-Level Variation in Thermal Performance into Predictions of Geographic Range Shifts

2011 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 733-750 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy L. Angert ◽  
Seema N. Sheth ◽  
John R. Paul
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Performance ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Level Variation ◽  
Geographic Range Shifts

Elevated CO 2 ameliorates birch response to high temperature and frost stress: implications for modeling climate-induced geographic range shifts

Oecologia ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 114 (3) ◽  
pp. 335-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. M. Wayne ◽  
E. G. Reekie ◽  
F. A. Bazzaz
Keyword(s):  
High Temperature ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Frost Stress ◽  
Geographic Range Shifts

scholarly journals Biogeography Meets Niche Modeling: Inferring the Role of Deep Time Climate Change When Data Is Limited

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria Culshaw ◽  
Mario Mairal ◽  
Isabel Sanmartín
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Deep Time ◽  
Climatic Oscillations ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Extinction Events ◽  
Geographic Range Shifts

Geographic range shifts are one major organism response to climate change, especially if the rate of climate change is higher than that of species adaptation. Ecological niche models (ENM) and biogeographic inferences are often used in estimating the effects of climatic oscillations on species range dynamics. ENMs can be used to track climatic suitable areas over time, but have often been limited to shallow timescales; biogeographic inference can reach greater evolutionary depth, but often lacks spatial resolution. Here, we present a simple approach that treats them as independent and complementary sources of evidence, which, when used in partnership, can be employed to reconstruct geographic range shifts over deep evolutionary timescales. For testing this, we chose two extreme African disjunctions: Camptoloma (Scrophulariaceae) and Canarina (Campanulaceae), each comprising of three species disjunctly distributed in Macaronesia and eastern/southern Africa. Using inferred ancestral ranges in tandem with preindustrial and paleoclimate ENM hindcastings, we show that the disjunct pattern was the result of fragmentation and extinction events linked to Neogene aridification cycles. Our results highlight the importance of considering temporal resolution when building ENMs for rare endemics with small population sizes and restricted climatic tolerances such as Camptoloma, for which models built on averaged monthly variables were more informative than those based on annual bioclimatic variables. Additionally, we show that biogeographic information can be used as truncation threshold criteria for building ENMs in the distant past. Our approach is suitable when there is sparse sampling on species occurrences and associated patterns of genetic variation, such as in the case of ancient endemics with widely disjunct distributions as a result of climate change.

scholarly journals Geographic Range Shifts Do Not Erase the Historic Signal of Speciation in Mammals

2015 ◽  
Vol 185 (3) ◽  
pp. 343-353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcel Cardillo
Keyword(s):  
Geographic Range ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Geographic Range Shifts

scholarly journals Biological and extrinsic correlates of extinction risk in Chinese lizards

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuxi Zhong ◽  
Chuanwu Chen ◽  
Yanping Wang
Keyword(s):  
Body Size ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Species Traits ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Range Size ◽  
Habitat Specialization ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Small Range ◽  
Extrinsic Factors

Abstract China is a country with one of the most species rich reptile faunas in the world. However, nearly a quarter of Chinese lizard species assessed by the China Biodiversity Red List are threatened. Nevertheless, to date, no study has explicitly examined the pattern and processes of extinction and threat in Chinese lizards. In this study, we conducted the first comparative phylogenetic analysis of extinction risk in Chinese lizards. We addressed the following three questions: 1) What is the pattern of extinction and threat in Chinese lizards? 2) Which species traits and extrinsic factors are related to their extinction risk? 3) How can we protect Chinese lizards based on our results? We collected data on ten species traits (body size, clutch size, geographic range size, activity time, reproductive mode, habitat specialization, habitat use, leg development, maximum elevation, and elevation range) and seven extrinsic factors (mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, mean annual solar insolation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), human footprint, human population density, and human exploitation). After phylogenetic correction, these variables were used separately and in combination to assess their associations with extinction risk. We found that Chinese lizards with small geographic range, large body size, high habitat specialization, and living in high precipitation areas were vulnerable to extinction. Conservation priority should thus be given to species with the above extinction-prone traits so as to effectively protect Chinese lizards. Preventing future habitat destruction should also be a primary focus of management efforts because species with small range size and high habitat specialization are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss.

scholarly journals A latitudinal signal in the relationship between species geographic range size and climatic niche area

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tad Dallas ◽  
Andrew Kramer
Keyword(s):  
Species Traits ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Range Size ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Climatic Niche ◽  
Residual Variation ◽  
Geographic Range Size ◽  
Environmental Space ◽  
Niche Area ◽  
Null Expectation

Species with broader niches may have the opportunity to occupy larger geographic areas, assuming no limitations on dispersal and a relatively homogeneous environmental space. While there is general support for positive \textit{geographic range size – climatic niche area} relationships, a great deal of variation exists across taxonomic and spatial gradients. Here, we use data on a large set of mammal ($n$ = 1225), bird ($n$ = 1829), and tree ($n$ = 341) species distributed across the Americas to examine the \textbf{1}) relationship between geographic range size and climatic niche area, \textbf{2}) influence of species traits on species departures from the best fit geographic range size – climatic niche area relationship, and \textbf{3}) how detection of these relationships is sensitive to how species range size and climatic niche area are estimated. We find positive \textit{geographic range size – climatic niche area} relationships for all taxa. Residual variation in this relationship contained a strong latitudinal signal. Subsampling the occurrence data to create a null expectation, we found that residual variation did not strongly deviate from the null expectation. Together, we provide support for the generality of \textit{geographic range size – climatic niche area} relationships, which may be constrained by latitude but are agnostic to species identity, suggesting that species traits are far less responsible than geographic barriers and the distribution of land area and available environmental space.

scholarly journals Species traits and phylogenetic conservatism of climate-induced range shifts in stream fishes

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lise Comte ◽  
Jérôme Murienne ◽  
Gaël Grenouillet
Keyword(s):  
Species Traits ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Stream Fishes ◽  
Phylogenetic Conservatism

scholarly journals Ecological Correlates of Elevational Range Shifts in Tropical Birds

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Montague H. C. Neate-Clegg ◽  
Samuel E. I. Jones ◽  
Joseph A. Tobias ◽  
William D. Newmark ◽  
Çaǧan H. Şekercioǧlu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Species Traits ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Dispersal Ability ◽  
High Dispersal ◽  
Elevational Shift ◽  
Elevational Range ◽  
The Tropics

Globally, birds have been shown to respond to climate change by shifting their elevational distributions. This phenomenon is especially prevalent in the tropics, where elevational gradients are often hotspots of diversity and endemism. Empirical evidence has suggested that elevational range shifts are far from uniform across species, varying greatly in the direction (upslope vs. downslope) and rate of change (speed of elevational shift). However, little is known about the drivers of these variable responses to climate change, limiting our ability to accurately project changes in the future. Here, we compile empirical estimates of elevational shift rates (m/yr) for 421 bird species from eight study sites across the tropics. On average, species shifted their mean elevations upslope by 1.63 ± 0.30 m/yr, their upper limits by 1.62 m ± 0.38 m/yr, and their lower limits by 2.81 ± 0.42 m/yr. Upslope shift rates increased in smaller-bodied, less territorial species, whereas larger species were more likely to shift downslope. When considering absolute shift rates, rates were fastest for species with high dispersal ability, low foraging strata, and wide elevational ranges. Our results indicate that elevational shift rates are associated with species’ traits, particularly body size, dispersal ability, and territoriality. However, these effects vary substantially across sites, suggesting that responses of tropical montane bird communities to climate change are complex and best predicted within the local or regional context.

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