Predicting missing links in global host-parasite networks
Parasites that infect multiple species cause major health burdens globally, but for many, the full suite of susceptible hosts is unknown. Proactive disease surveillance involves gathering host-parasite association data, predicting missing links, and targeting efforts towards the most likely undocumented interactions. Using the largest global network of mammal host-parasite interactions amalgamated to date (>29,000 interactions), we predict undocumented links and conduct targeted literature searches. We find evidence for many of the top “missing” links, including parasites of humans, domesticated animals, and endangered wildlife, and identify regions such as tropical and central America as likely hotspots of undocumented associations. This approach of iterated prediction and targeted surveillance can efficiently guide the collection of host-parasite interaction data critical for developing broad-scale theories in disease ecology and evolution, help to identify previously undocumented hosts, and inform predictions of future host-parasite interactions.