Forecasting parasite sharing under climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 376 (1837) ◽  
pp. 20200360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio Morales-Castilla ◽  
Paula Pappalardo ◽  
Maxwell J. Farrell ◽  
A. Alonso Aguirre ◽  
Shan Huang ◽  
...  

Species are shifting their distributions in response to climate change. This geographic reshuffling may result in novel co-occurrences among species, which could lead to unseen biotic interactions, including the exchange of parasites between previously isolated hosts. Identifying potential new host–parasite interactions would improve forecasting of disease emergence and inform proactive disease surveillance. However, accurate predictions of future cross-species disease transmission have been hampered by the lack of a generalized approach and data availability. Here, we propose a framework to predict novel host–parasite interactions based on a combination of niche modelling of future host distributions and parasite sharing models. Using the North American ungulates as a proof of concept, we show this approach has high cross-validation accuracy in over 85% of modelled parasites and find that more than 34% of the host–parasite associations forecasted by our models have already been recorded in the literature. We discuss potential sources of uncertainty and bias that may affect our results and similar forecasting approaches, and propose pathways to generate increasingly accurate predictions. Our results indicate that forecasting parasite sharing in response to shifts in host geographic distributions allow for the identification of regions and taxa most susceptible to emergent pathogens under climate change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe’.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maxwell J. Farrell ◽  
Mohamad Elmasri ◽  
David Stephens ◽  
T. Jonathan Davies

Parasites that infect multiple species cause major health burdens globally, but for many, the full suite of susceptible hosts is unknown. Proactive disease surveillance involves gathering host-parasite association data, predicting missing links, and targeting efforts towards the most likely undocumented interactions. Using the largest global network of mammal host-parasite interactions amalgamated to date (>29,000 interactions), we predict undocumented links and conduct targeted literature searches. We find evidence for many of the top “missing” links, including parasites of humans, domesticated animals, and endangered wildlife, and identify regions such as tropical and central America as likely hotspots of undocumented associations. This approach of iterated prediction and targeted surveillance can efficiently guide the collection of host-parasite interaction data critical for developing broad-scale theories in disease ecology and evolution, help to identify previously undocumented hosts, and inform predictions of future host-parasite interactions.


ISRN Ecology ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Cunze ◽  
Marion Carmen Leiblein ◽  
Oliver Tackenberg

Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., native to North America, is a problematic invasive species, because of its highly allergenic pollen. The species is expected to expand its range due to climate change. By means of ecological niche modelling (ENM), we predict habitat suitability for A. artemisiifolia in Europe under current and future climatic conditions. Overall, we compared the performance and results of 16 algorithms commonly applied in ENM. As occurrence records of invasive species may be dominated by sampling bias, we also used data from the native range. To assess the quality of the modelling approaches we assembled a new map of current occurrences of A. artemisiifolia in Europe. Our results show that ENM yields a good estimation of the potential range of A. artemisiifolia in Europe only when using the North American data. A strong sampling bias in the European Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) data for A. artemisiifolia causes unrealistic results. Using the North American data reflects the realized European distribution very well. All models predict an enlargement and a northwards shift of potential range in Central and Northern Europe during the next decades. Climate warming will lead to an increase and northwards shift of A. artemisiifolia in Europe.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meixuan Teng ◽  
Hua Liao ◽  
Paul J. Burke ◽  
Tianqi Chen ◽  
Chen Zhang

Abstract Rising temperaturesare likely to boost residential demand for electricity in warm locationsdue toincreased use of air-conditioners, fans, and refrigeration. Yet the precise effect of temperatureson residential electricity use may vary by geographical area and with socio-economic conditions. Knowledge on this effectin developing countries is limited due to data availability and reliability issues. Using a high-quality provincial-level monthly datasetfor China and fixed-effect panel methods,we find aU-shaped and asymmetrical relationship between ambient temperature and monthly household electricity use.An additional day with a maximum temperature exceeding 34°C on average results in a 1.6% increase in monthlyper capita household electricity use relative to if that day’s maximum temperature had been in the 22­–26°C range. The effect of an additional cold day is smaller. There are differencesin effectsfor the south and the north of China and in urban versus rural areas. We estimate that temperature increases associated with climate change will lead to about a 3–5% increase in annual household electricity consumption by the end of the century under different carbon emission trajectories according to the projectionsin the 2021IPCC report. The estimated effect is larger for summer months.


Animals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3490
Author(s):  
Carolina Romeiro Fernandes Chagas ◽  
Rasa Binkienė ◽  
Gediminas Valkiūnas

Avian blood parasites are remarkably diverse and frequently occur in co-infections, which predominate in wildlife. This makes wildlife pathogen research challenging, particularly if they belong to closely related groups, resulting in diagnostic problems and poor knowledge about such infections as well as the patterns of their co-occurrence and interactions. This is particularly true due to the periodicity (circadian rhythms) of parasitemia, which means that different parasitemia and parasite stages might be found throughout the day. We analysed blood samples from a Eurasian blackbird (Turdus merula) and a Song thrush (Turdus philomelos). This study aimed to describe a new avian Lankesterella species and molecularly characterize and redescribe Splendidofilaria mavis, a common avian filarioid nematode. Additionally, it was possible to investigate the circadian rhythms of the avian blood parasites belonging to Plasmodium, Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon, and Trypanosoma, which occurred in co-infection in the same avian host individuals. Different circadian rhythms were seen in different parasites, with Plasmodium sp. peaks occurring at midday, Leucocytozoon spp. peaks mainly during the evening and night, and Trypanosoma spp. and microfilariae peaks at midnight. No periodicity was seen in Haemoproteus and Lankesterella species infections. The time of parasitemia peaks most likely coincides with the time of vectors’ activity, and this should be beneficial for transmission. Knowledge about the circadian rhythms is needed for better understanding patterns in host-parasite interactions and disease transmission.


2009 ◽  
Vol 163 (3) ◽  
pp. 217-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan J. Kutz ◽  
Emily J. Jenkins ◽  
Alasdair M. Veitch ◽  
Julie Ducrocq ◽  
Lydden Polley ◽  
...  

Parasitology ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 138 (8) ◽  
pp. 1022-1028 ◽  
Author(s):  
HIDEYUKI DOI ◽  
NATALIA I. YURLOVA

SUMMARYIt is suspected that host-parasite interactions are influenced by climatic oscillations such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, the effects of climatic oscillations on host-parasite interactions have never been investigated. A long-term (1982–1999) dataset of the host snail Lymnaea stagnalis and trematode metacercariae infection has been collected for Lake Chany in Western Siberia. Using this dataset, we estimated the impact of the NAO on the population dynamics of hosts and parasites as well as their interactions. The results of general linear models showed that the abundance of dominant parasite species and the total parasite abundance significantly increased with NAO, with the exception of Moliniella anceps. Other climatic and biological factors were relatively weak to explain the abundance. There was no significant relationship between NAO and the population density of host snails. The prevalence of infection was related to the total abundance of parasites, but not to the NAO. Thus, the responses to the NAO differed between the host and parasites, indicating mismatching in host-parasite interactions. Therefore, climatic oscillations, such as the NAO, influence common parasitism.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah R. Hoy ◽  
Leah M. Vucetich ◽  
Rolf O. Peterson ◽  
John A. Vucetich

Climate change is expected to modify host-parasite interactions which is concerning because parasites are involved in most food-web links, and parasites have important influences on the structure, productivity and stability of communities and ecosystems. However, the impact of climate change on host–parasite interactions and any cascading effects on other ecosystem processes has received relatively little empirical attention. We assessed host-parasite dynamics for moose (Alces alces) and winter ticks (Dermacentor albipictus) in Isle Royale National Park over a 19-year period. Specifically, we monitored annual tick burdens for moose (estimated from hair loss) and assessed how it covaried with several aspects of seasonal climate, and non-climatic factors, such as moose density, predation on hosts by wolves (Canis lupus) and wolf abundance. Summer temperatures explained half the interannual variance in tick burden with tick burden being greater following hotter summers, presumably because warmer temperatures accelerate the development of tick eggs and increase egg survival. That finding is consistent with the general expectation that warmer temperatures may promote higher parasite burdens. However, summer temperatures are warming less rapidly than other seasons across most regions of North America. Therefore, tick burdens seem to be primarily associated with an aspect of climate that is currently exhibiting a lower rate of change. Tick burdens were also positively correlated with predation rate, which could be due to moose exhibiting risk-sensitive habitat selection (in years when predation risk is high) in such a manner as to increases the encounter rate with questing tick larvae in autumn. However, that positive correlation could also arise if high parasite burdens make moose more vulnerable to predators or because of some other density-dependent process (given that predation rate and moose density are highly correlated). Overall, these results provide valuable insights about interrelationships among climate, parasites, host/prey, and predators.


Author(s):  
Santiago Merino

This chapter offers a review of the papers published on the effect of climate change on bird–parasite interactions from 2010 to date. Climatic effects on phenology, prevalence and intensity, range expansion, virulence, anti-parasite defences, and coevolutionary interactions are reviewed. Most studies are centred on diseases that can also affect human populations or that are close phylogenetically to diseases of humans. However, diseases affecting birds are of great interest due to their importance in ecosystems. More empirical data are needed for a better understanding of how climate change affects bird–parasite relationships.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document