scholarly journals Population age structure only partially explains the large number of COVID-19 deaths at the oldest ages

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Medford ◽  
Sergi Trias-Llimós
Keyword(s):  
Old Age ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Population Age Structure ◽  
Country Comparison ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Age Structures

AbstractTo date any attention paid to the age shape of COVID-19 deaths has been mostly in relation to attempts to understand the differences in case fatality rates between countries. The aim of this paper is to explore differences in age distribution of deaths from COVID-19 among European countries which have old age structures. We do this by way of a cross-country comparison and put forward some reasons for potential differences.

scholarly journals Population age structure only partially explains the large number of COVID-19 deaths at the oldest ages

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Medford ◽  
Sergi Trias-Llimós
Keyword(s):  
Old Age ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Population Age Structure ◽  
Country Comparison ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Age Structures

To date any attention paid to the age shape of COVID-19 deaths has been mostly in relation to attempts to understand the differences in case fatality rates between countries. The aim of this paper is to explore differences in age distribution of deaths from COVID-19 among European countries which have old age structures. We do this by way of a cross-country comparison and put forward some reasons for potential differences.

scholarly journals Covid-19 and Population Age Structure

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajit Haridas ◽  
Gangan Prathap
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Cross Protection ◽  
Large Cohort ◽  
Population Age Structure

AbstractEpidemiological studies suggest that age distribution of a population has a non-trivial effect on how morbidity rates, mortality rates and case fatality rates (CFR) vary when there is an epidemic or pandemic. We look at the empirical evidence from a large cohort of countries to see the sensitivity of Covid-19 data to their respective median ages. The insights that emerge could be used to control for age structure effects while investigating other factors like cross-protection, comorbidities, etc.

scholarly journals Rural Areas in Poland in The Context of Changes in Population Age Structure in 1996, 2001 and 2006

2009 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 91-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Szymańska ◽  
Jadwiga Biegańska ◽  
Anna Gil
Keyword(s):  
Old Age ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Population Age Structure ◽  
Aging Index ◽  
Population Numbers ◽  
Age Structures

Rural Areas in Poland in The Context of Changes in Population Age Structure in 1996, 2001 and 2006 The article presents changes in the rural age structures in Poland as observed in the years 1996, 2001 and 2006. The changes in population numbers are analysed with respect to age groups, the aging index and the old-age rate. Regarding its spatial scope, the article covers rural areas in Poland and the basic territorial units it uses are rural communes and the rural parts of mixed rural-urban communes that altogether amount to 2,171 units (as of 2006). The obtained results are discussed in a broader context of urban as well as countrywide age structures.

scholarly journals The age structure of cases as the key of COVID-19 severity: Longitudinal population-based analysis of European countries during 150 days

2021 ◽  
pp. 140349482110424
Author(s):  
Klára Hulíková Tesárková ◽  
Dagmar Dzúrová
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Population Based ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Impact

Aims: Over a million confirmed cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) across 16 European countries were observed during the first wave of the pandemic. Epidemiological measures like the case fatality rate (CFR) are generally used to determine the severity of the illness. The aim is to investigate the impact of the age structure of reported cases on the reported CFR and possibilities of its demographic adjustment for a better cross-country comparison (age-standardized CFRs, time delay between cases detection and death). Methods: This longitudinal study uses prospective, population-based data covering 150 days, starting on the day of confirmation of the 100th case in each country. COVerAGE-DB and the Human Mortality Database were used in this regard. The age-standardized CFRs were calculated with and without the time delay of the number of deaths after the confirmation of the cases. Results: The observed decline in the CFRs at the end of the first wave is partly given by the changes in the age structure of confirmed cases. Using the adjusted (age-standardized) CFRs with time delay, the risk of death among confirmed cases is much more stable in comparison to crude (observed) CFRs. Conclusions: Preventing the spread of COVID-19 among the elderly is an important way to positively influence the overall fatality rate, decrease the number of deaths, and not overload the health systems. The crude CFRs (still often presented) are not sufficient for a proper evaluation of the development across populations nor as a means of identifying the influencing factors.

scholarly journals Did Lockdown Work? An Economist’s Cross-Country Comparison

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Bjørnskov
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rates ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Country Comparison ◽  
Clear Association ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Two Indices ◽  
Cross Country

Abstract I explore the association between the severity of lockdown policies in the first half of 2020 and mortality rates. Using two indices from the Blavatnik Centre’s COVID-19 policy measures and comparing weekly mortality rates from 24 European countries in the first halves of 2017–2020, addressing policy endogeneity in two different ways, and taking timing into account, I find no clear association between lockdown policies and mortality development.

scholarly journals The role of age distribution, time lag between reporting and death and healthcare system capacity on case fatality estimates of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrizio Vanella ◽  
Christian Wiessner ◽  
Anja Holz ◽  
Gerard Krause ◽  
Annika Moehl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Lag ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Case Fatality Risk ◽  
The Impact

European countries report large differences in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case fatality risk (CFR). CFR estimates depend on demographic characteristics of the cases, time lags between reporting of infections and deaths and infrastructural characteristics, such as healthcare and surveillance capacities. We discuss the impact of these factors on the CFR estimates for Germany, Italy, France, and Spain for the COVID-19 pandemic from early March to mid-April, 2020. We found that, first, a large proportion of the difference in CFRs can be attributed to different age structures of the cases. Second, lags of 5-10 days between day of case report and death should be used, since these provide the most constant estimates. Third, for France, Italy, and Spain, intensive care beds occupied by COVID-19 patients were positively associated with fatality risks of hospitalized cases. Our results highlight that cross-country comparisons of crude CFR estimates can be misleading and should be avoided.

scholarly journals Enhanced comparisons of COVID-19 mortality across populations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chalapati Rao ◽  
Suhail A. Doi ◽  
Gail Williams
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The South ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Age Variations ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
System Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Age Structures

AbstractBackgroundThe reported crude case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 varies considerably across countries. Crude CFRs could by biased by larger proportions of older COVID-19 cases in population data, who are also at increased mortality risk. Such distorted age case structures are a common feature of selective COVID 19 testing strategies in many countries, and they potentially mask underlying differences arising from other important factors such as health system burden.MethodsWe used the method of direct case-age standardisation to evaluate the effects of age variations on CFRs. Data on cases and death by age from Italy, Spain, China, Australia and South Korea were analysed to derive standardised CFRs. Findings were compared across different case age distribution references as standards.ResultsUsing the South Korean case age distribution as a standard, the fivefold higher crude CFR for Italy is reduced to less than two-fold after adjustment, while the crude CFR difference for Spain is virtually eliminated. The adjusted CFR for Australia is the lowest among all countries.DiscussionMortality differences based on crude CFRs are exaggerated by age structures, which are effectively controlled by case age standardization. Residual CFR differences could be attributed to health and health system factors. The South Korean case age distribution is an appropriate reference standard, given its robust case detection and contact tracing program. Till reliable population level indicators of incidence and mortality are available, the age-standardized CFR could be a viable option for international comparison of the impact of the COVID 19 epidemic.SummaryThe knownThere are intense debates around the magnitude of and reasons for wide variations in observed case fatality rates (CFRs) from COVID 19 across countries. Age is commonly speculated as a reason, but this has not been technically quantified or explained.The newThe technique of direct standardization using reference distributions of case age structures eliminates the effects of age on CFR, thus enhancing the comparability as well as understanding of differentialsThe implicationsResidual differences between adjusted CFRs can be used to infer health and health system factors that influence mortality in COVID 19 cases in different populations

scholarly journals Demographic aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, Spain, Germany, and South Korea

Geografie ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 125 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-170
Author(s):  
Klára Hulíková Tesárková
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Research Papers ◽  
Demographic Research ◽  
Population Age Structure ◽  
Crucial Part ◽  
Demographic Features ◽  
Age Structures

The COVID-19 Pandemic has become an object of many studies and research papers. Although knowledge of the demographic features of the illness could be important for targeting the prevention, or treatment and evaluation, of the situation, demographic research was rather limited in the initial phases of the pandemic. This paper aims to present the basic demographic aspects of the illness (age-specific and crude rates) and to estimate the effects of age-specific rates and age structures on the overall, generally used measures. For this analysis, Italy, Spain, Germany, and South Korea were selected. The most important differences among these countries were traced based on the age-specific measures and age structures. The demographic method of decomposition was used for the most crucial part of the analysis. It was proven that the level of incidence (particularly at higher ages) is noticeably significant regarding the observed differences. The effects of population age structure and the level of fatality are somewhat weaker.

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