A Head-to-head Comparison of the EQ-5D-3L Index Scores Derived from the Two EQ-5D-3L Value Sets for China

Background: Two EQ-5D-3L (3L) value sets (developed in 2014 and 2018) co-exist in China. The study examined the level of agreement between index scores for all the 243 health states derived from them at both absolute and relative levels and compared the responsiveness of the two indices. Methods: Intraclass correlations coefficient (ICC) and Bland-Altman plot were adopted to assess the degree of agreement between the two indices at the absolute level. Health gains for 29,403 possible transitions between pairs of 3L health states were calculated to assess the agreement at the relative level. Their responsiveness for the transitions was assessed using Cohen effect size.Results：The mean (standard deviation, SD) value was 0.427 (0.206) and 0.649 (0.189) for the 3L2014 and 3L2018 index scores, respectively. Although the ICC value showed good agreement (i.e., 0.896), 88.9% (216/243) of the points were beyond the minimum important difference limit according to the Bland-Altman plot. The mean health gains for the 29,403 health transitions was 0.234 (3L2014 index score) and 0.216 (3L2018 index score). The two indices predicted consistent transitions in 23,720 (80.7%) of 29,403 pairs. For the consistent pairs, Cohen effective size value was 1.05 (3L2014 index score) or 1.06 (3L2018 index score); and the 3L2014 index score only yielded 0.007 more utility gains. However, the results based on the two measures varied substantially according to the direction and magnitude of health change. Conclusion：The 3L2014 and 3L2018 index scores are not interchangeable. The choice between them is likely to influence QALYs estimations.

EVALUASI PERFORMA INDEKS MONSUN AUSMI DAN WNPMI DI WILAYAH INDONESIA

Intisari Iklim di wilayah Indonesia sangat dipengaruhi oleh aktivitas monsun Asia-Australia. Variabilitas kedua sistem monsun tersebut dapat direpresentasikan dengan baik masing-masing oleh indeks monsun Australian Summer Monsoon Index (AUSMI) dan Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI). Saat ini, BMKG secara operasional menggunakan indeks AUSMI dan WNPMI untuk memonitor aktivitas monsun di wilayah Indonesia sebagai bahan prakiraan musim. Meskipun banyak literatur menyatakan bahwa wilayah Indonesia merupakan bagian dari sistem monsun Asia-Australia, namun kondisi topografi lokal yang kompleks berpotensi memodifikasi sirkulasi monsun sehingga perlu dikaji performa kedua indeks tersebut sebelum digunakan secara operasional. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menguji performa indeks monsun AUSMI dan WNPMI dalam menggambarkan variasi antartahunan (interannual), variasi dalam musim (intraseasonal), dan siklus tahunan (annual cycle) hujan monsun Indonesia. Hasil penelitian mengungkapkan bahwa kedua indeks memiliki performa yang sangat baik hanya di wilayah dimana indeks tersebut didefinisikan namun kurang baik untuk wilayah Indonesia seperti yang ditunjukan oleh nilai koefisien korelasi yang tidak signifikan dari hasil uji statistik antara kedua indeks dengan curah hujan dari Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pada periode 1981-2010. Selain itu, kedua indeks juga memperlihatkan karakteristik siklus tahunan yang berbeda dengan karakteristik siklus tahunan hujan wilayah Jawa sebagai wilayah kunci monsun Indonesia. Hasil ini mengindikasikan perlunya pendefinisian indeks sendiri untuk memonitor aktivitas monsun di wilayah Indonesia. Abstract The climate of Indonesia is strongly affected by the Asian-Australian monsoon system. The variability of the two monsoon systems can be well represented by the Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI) and the Australian Summer Monsoon Index (AUSMI) respectively. For producing seasonal forecast, BMKG uses the WNPMI and AUSMI monsoon index to monitor monsoon activity in Indonesia. Although most literature states that the Indonesian region is part of the Asian-Australian monsoon system, the complex local topography may modify the monsoon circulation. Hence, it is necessary to assess the performance of the two indices before they are operationally used. This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the AUSMI and WNPMI monsoon indices in describing the annual cycle, intraseasonal and interannual variability of the Indonesian monsoon rainfall. The results revealed that the two indices only performed very well in the areas where the index was defined but lack of skill for the Indonesian region because of insignificant linear correlation based on a statistical significance test between the two indices and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall in the 1981-2010 period. In addition, both monsoon indices and Java rainfall showed different characteristics of the annual cycle. These results indicate that it is necessary to define a specific index for monitoring monsoon activity in Indonesia.

Likelihood of unprecedented drought and fire weather during Australia’s 2019 megafires

Between June 2019 and March 2020, thousands of wildfires spread devastation across Australia at the tragic cost of many lives, vast areas of burnt forest, and estimated economic losses upward of AU$100 billion. Exceptionally hot and dry weather conditions, and preceding years of severe drought across Australia, contributed to the severity of the wildfires. Here we present analysis of a very large ensemble of initialized climate simulations to assess the likelihood of the concurrent drought and fire-weather conditions experienced at that time. We focus on a large region in southeast Australia where these fires were most widespread and define two indices to quantify the susceptibility to fire from drought and fire weather. Both indices were unprecedented in the observed record in 2019. We find that the likelihood of experiencing such extreme susceptibility to fire in the current climate was 0.5%, equivalent to a 200 year return period. The conditional probability is many times higher than this when we account for the states of key climate modes that impact Australian weather and climate. Drought and fire-weather conditions more extreme than those experienced in 2019 are also possible in the current climate.

Potential effects of life history on demographic genetic structure in stage-structured plant populations

Standing genetic variation, or genetic diversity, is a source of adaptive evolution, and is crucial for long-term population persistence under environmental changes. One empirical method to predict the temporal dynamics of standing genetic variation in age- or stage-structured populations is to compare genetic diversity and composition among age/stage classes. The resultant within-population genetic structure, sometimes referred to as demographic genetic structure, has been regarded as a proxy of potential genetic changes that accompany sequential generation turnover. However, especially in stage-structured plant populations, individuals in more juvenile stages do not necessarily represent future populations, as they might die, stop growing, or retrogress over the course of life history. How demographic genetic structure is subjected to life history and whether it is a good proxy of temporal genetic dynamics had remained unclear. Here, we developed a matrix model which well describes temporal dynamics of expected heterozygosity, a common proxy of genetic diversity, for a neutral locus in stage-structured populations under equilibrium assumption. Based on the model, two indices of demographic genetic structure were formulated: relative ratio of expected heterozygosity and genetic differentiation among stage classes. We found that the two indices were largely determined by stable stage distribution and population size, and that they did not show clear correlations with the change rate of genetic diversity, indicating that inferring future genetic diversity from demographic genetic structure conventionally is misleading. Our study facilitates reliable interpretation on empirical demographic genetic data.

Calendar anomalies in the stock markets: conventional vs Islamic stock indices

PurposeIn this study, the authors evaluate seven calendar anomalies’–the day of the week, weekend, the month of the year, January, the turn of the month (TOM), Ramadan and Eid festivals–effects in both the conventional and Islamic stock indices of Bangladesh. Also, the authors examine whether these anomalies differ between the two indices.Design/methodology/approachThe authors select the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) Broad Index (DSEX) and the DSEX Shariah Index (DSES) of the DSE as representatives of the conventional and Islamic stock indices respectively. To carry out the investigation, the authors employ the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) typed models from January 25, 2011, to March 25, 2020.FindingsThe study’s results indicate the presence of all these calendar anomalies in either conventional or Islamic indices or both, except for the Ramadan effect. Some significant differences in the anomalies between the two indices (excluding the Ramadan effect) are detected in both return and volatility, with the differences being somewhat more pronounced in volatility. The existence of these calendar anomalies argues against the efficient market hypothesis of the stock markets of Bangladesh.Practical implicationsThe study’s results can benefit investors and portfolio managers to comprehend different market anomalies and make investment strategies to beat the market for abnormal gains. Foreign investors can also be benefited from cross-border diversifications with DSE.Originality/valueTo the authors’ knowledge, first the calendar anomalies in the context of both conventional and Islamic stock indices for comparison purposes are evaluated, which is the novel contribution of this study. Unlike previous studies, the authors have explored seven calendar anomalies in the Bangladesh stock market's context with different indices and data sets. Importantly, no study in Bangladesh has analyzed calendar anomalies as comprehensively as the authors’.

Evaluation of Muscle Function by Means of a Muscle-Specific and a Global Index

Gait analysis applications in clinics are still uncommon, for three main reasons: (1) the considerable time needed to prepare the subject for the examination; (2) the lack of user-independent tools; (3) the large variability of muscle activation patterns observed in healthy and pathological subjects. Numerical indices quantifying the muscle coordination of a subject could enable clinicians to identify patterns that deviate from those of a reference population and to follow the progress of the subject after surgery or completing a rehabilitation program. In this work, we present two user-independent indices. First, a muscle-specific index (MFI) that quantifies the similarity of the activation pattern of a muscle of a specific subject with that of a reference population. Second, a global index (GFI) that provides a score of the overall activation of a muscle set. These two indices were tested on two groups of healthy and pathological children with encouraging results. Hence, the two indices will allow clinicians to assess the muscle activation, identifying muscles showing an abnormal activation pattern, and associate a functional score to every single muscle as well as to the entire muscle set. These opportunities could contribute to facilitating the diffusion of surface EMG analysis in clinics.

Volatility of Ship Demolition Index Prices

Aim: The main objective of this paper is to explore the volatility of ship demolition indices. Ship demolition indices are becoming increasingly important owing to the growing number of norms and rules imposed by the International Maritime Organization. Financial crunch and stricter emission norms are forcing vessel owners to consider ship demolition options. This study examines the volatility of ship demolition rates of the Baltic Demolition Index and the causal relationship between the Chinese and Indian subcontinent indices. Methods: EGARCH models have been used to explore the volatility and asymmetric effects in the time series. The relationship between the two indices was established using the Granger causality test. Results and conclusion: The final analysis confirmed that ship demolition indices are both volatile and asymmetric. This study is unique and useful to ship owners, vessel operators, and banks as it helps them understand the risks involved.

Integration Development of Urban Agglomeration in Central Liaoning, China, by Trajectory Gravity Model

Integration development of urban agglomeration is important for regional economic research and management. In this paper, a method was proposed to study the integration development of urban agglomeration by trajectory gravity model. It can analyze the gravitational strength of the core city to other cities and characterize the spatial trajectory of its gravitational direction, expansion, etc. quantitatively. The main idea is to do the fitting analysis between the urban axes and the gravitational lines. The correlation coefficients retrieved from the fitting analysis can reflect the correlation of two indices. For the different cities in the same year, a higher value means a stronger relationship. There is a clear gravitational force between the cities when the value above 0.75. For the most cities in different years, the gravitational force between the core city with itself is increasing by years. At the same time, the direction of growth of the urban axes tends to increase in the direction of the gravitational force between cities. There is a clear tendency for the trajectories of the cities to move closer together. The proposed model was applied to the integration development of China Liaoning central urban agglomeration from 2008 to 2016. The results show that cities are constantly attracted to each other through urban gravity.

Strengthening National Capacities for Pandemic Preparedness: A Cross-Country Analysis of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths

The International Health Regulation—State Party Annual Reporting (IHR-SPAR) and the Global Health Security Index (GHSI)) have been developed to aid in strengthening national capacities for pandemic preparedness. We examine the relationship between country-level rankings on these two indices, along with two additional indices (the Universal Health Coverage Service Coverage Index and World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicator (n = 195)) and compared them to the country-level reported COVID-19 cases and deaths (Johns Hopkins University (JHU) COVID-19 Dashboard) through 17 June 2020. Ordinary least squares regression models were used to compare weekly reported COVID-19 case and death rates per million in the first 12 weeks of the pandemic between countries classified as low, middle, and high ranking on each index, while controlling for country socio-demographic information. Countries with higher GHSI and IHR-SPAR index scores experienced fewer reported COVID-19 cases and deaths, but only for the first 8 weeks after the country’s first case. For the GHSI, this association was further limited to countries with populations below 69.4 million. For both the GHSI and IHR-SPAR, countries with a higher sub-index score in human resources for pandemic preparedness reported fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths in the first 8 weeks after the country’s first reported case. The UHC-SCI and WGI country-level rankings were not associated with COVID-19 outcomes. The associations between GHSI and IHR-SPAR scores and COVID-19 outcomes observed in this study demonstrate that these two indices, although imperfect, may have value, especially in countries with a population under 69.4 million people for the GHSI. Preparedness indices may have value; however, they should continue to be evaluated as policymakers seek to better prepare for future global public health crises.

Blood Cerebrospinal Fluid Barrier Function Disturbance can be Followed by β-amyloid Accumulation

Background: Elucidation of the mechanism of β-amyloid accumulation plays an important role in therapeutic strategies for Alzheimer’s disease (AD). To elucidate the relationship between the function of the blood cerebrospinal fluid barrier (BCSFB) and the production and clearance of β-amyloid, we analyzed the changes in interstitial water flow into the CSF space from the cortex and β-amyloid accumulation in the cortex by using both [15O]H2O and [18F]flutemetamol PET over a 2-year follow-up period. Methods: Twenty-five normal older adult volunteers (13 males and 12 females, 60–81 years old) participated in this 2-year follow-up PET study. Water dynamics were analyzed using two indices in [15O]H2O PET, the influx ratio (IR) and drain rate (DR), and β-amyloid accumulation was assessed qualitatively by [18F]flutemetamol PET. Results: [15O]H2O PET examinations conducted initially and after 2 years showed no significant changes in both indices over the 2-year period (IR: 1.03 ± 0.21 and 1.02 ± 0.20, DR: 1.74 ± 0.43 and 1.67 ± 0.47, respectively). In [18F]flutemetamol PET, on the other hand, one of the 25 participants showed positive results and two showed positive changes after 2 years. In these three participants, the two indices of water dynamics showed low values at both periods (IR: 0.60 ± 0.15 and 0.60 ± 0.13, DR: 1.24 ± 0.12 and 1.11 ± 0.10). Conclusions: Our results indicated that BCSFB function disturbances could be followed by β-amyloid accumulation, because the reduced interstitial flow preceded amyloid accumulation in the positive-change subjects, and amyloid accumulation was not observed in the older adults with sufficiently high values for the two indices. In other words, adequate interstitial flow can potentially prevent amyloid accumulation. The current study confirms that disturbances in the proper clearance of β-amyloid by interstitial flow through the Virchow–Robin spaces into the CSF can play a significant role in senile plaque formation and ultimately the pathogenesis of AD. We believe that further elucidation of interstitial water flow will be the key to developing therapeutic strategies for AD, especially with regard to prevention.Trial registration: UMIN, UMIN000011939. Registered 1November 2013 - Retrospectively registered, http://www.umin.ac.jp/ctr/index.htm