scholarly journals A Mathematical prediction of the time evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in some countries of the European Union using Monte Carlo simulations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignazio Ciufolini ◽  
Antonio Paolozzi
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Error Function ◽  
Monte Carlo Analysis ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Prediction Curve ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Eu

AbstractIn this paper we study the statistical evolution in time of the Covid-19 pandemic in Spain, Italy, Germany, Belgium, The Netherlands, Austria and Portugal, i.e., the countries of the European Union (EU) that have a number of positive cases higher than 12 thousand at April 7, 2020. France is the third country of the EU for number of cases but a jump in the data on April 3, 2020 does not allow, at least for the moment, to have a reliable prediction curve. The analysis is based on the use of a function of the type of a Gauss Error Function, with four parameters, as a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF). A Monte Carlo analysis is used to estimate the uncertainty. The approach used in this paper is mathematical and statistical and thus does not explicitly consider a number of relevant issues, including number of nasopharyngeal swabs, mitigation measures, social distancing, virologic, epidemiological and models of contamination diffusion.

scholarly journals European Union as a Leader in Climate Change Policy: Assessing Europe’s Roles in the World∗

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 285
Author(s):  
Omer Ugur ◽  
Kadir Caner Dogan ◽  
Metin Aksoy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
European Union ◽  
International Politics ◽  
Climate Change Policy ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Change Policy ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Climate Change Politics ◽  
The Eu

The European Union has grown up in terms of influence and size in international politics. The size of its economy and the ever-increasing membership, have seen its ambitions grow meaning that the EU now has an international presence it did not have at its formation. It is easy to say that with the EU being an ambitious actor in international politics, the rise into prominence of climate change naturally came in handy for the EU as it provided an opportunity for the EU to assert itself and prove both its capacity and presence. The 1992 Rio Earth Summit and the withdrawal of the USA from the obligations of the Kyoto came as a blessing in disguise for the Union as it seized the moment to assert itself. Thus, in trying to understand what role the EU has or is playing in international climate change politics, there is need to assess its leadership claims and what it has done to prove these claims. To get there, the paper will navigate through a part of the discipline of International Relations (IR) to understand how it provides for a basis to explain or understand the EU’s limitations and strengths on actorness.

scholarly journals Challenges of the enlargement policy in the light of European Union transformation: Is the rise of Euroscepticism in Serbia inevitable?

2019 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-106
Author(s):  
Jelena Todorovic-Lazic
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Negative Attitudes ◽  
The Public ◽  
Accession Process ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
The Eu

The EU Summit in Thessaloniki in 2003 is often referred to as a milestone in the relations between the Western Balkans and the European Union because the region was given strong promises of a prospective European perspective through the Stabilization and Association Process. However, the initial enthusiasm that followed has melted over the coming years because the expectations of most countries in the region have not been met (with the exception of Croatia that became an EU member in 2013). Even though we get assurances from the Brussels that they will not give up on enlargement, it is obvious that this issue is not on the list of priorities of the EU at the moment. Not only that its decisiveness to encompass with enlargement the Western Balkans is on shaky grounds due to the numerous challenges that the EU is facing at the moment, but such decline in interest leads to a decline in interest in the countries of the mentioned region that are currently in the accession process. This further leads to the rise in Euroscepticism for which the Western Balkans is a breeding ground. The reasons for Euroscepticism existed even before the enlargement has been brushed aside from the Union agenda (those were mostly reasons related to pre-accession strategy for candidate countries/potential candidates and were present even in the case of countries of Eastern and Central Europe, even though there were also reasons specific for each of these countries.). However, it seems they have become stronger with the new developments in the Union. Incertitude of membership affects the rise of negative attitudes towards the Union in the public opinion of these countries which becomes manifest if we look at numerous public opinion polls. The focus of this paper will be the interpretation of the results of the research that the Institute for Political Studies conducted on an annual basis from 2015 to 2018.

scholarly journals Migrations in Europe: Fears due to the enlargement of the EU to the East

Stanovnistvo ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 41 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 131-145
Author(s):  
Mirjana Morokvasic
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Buffer Zone ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Eastern Border ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

The European Union is confronted with the biggest enlargement in its history: ten states, among them eight middle European - the so called "buffer zone" in the new European migration landscape - will become members in 2004. Other candidates hope to join in the coming years. For all Eastern and Eastern European countries, including those that are not candidates, the end of the bi-polar world meant a hope of "return to Europe". When shifting its borders to the East, the European Union both includes and excludes. The final objective to achieve Europe as "a space of freedom, security and justice", is conditioned by the capacity and necessity to control the migratory flows. The prospect of free circulation for the citizens of the new Union members entails also fears: the EU countries are afraid of the consequences the enlargement would have on migratory flows from the countries of the Central and Eastern Europe and which transit through that area. The perception of migrants as a threat inspired the conditions that the Union imposed on the candidate countries concerning migration policy issues and which mostly focus on the protection of its Eastern borders. For the future Union members however, protecting of the thousand of kilometers of their Eastern border, implies a number of quite different problems. These countries are afraid of the impact the restrictive measures they are obliged to implement would have both on many economic and family ties which have been maintained since the socialist period and on more recently engaged cooperation with the neighbours which are not candidates. The challenge of enlargement is different therefore for the EU members, for the candidate countries and for those who are for the moment excluded from the process. The fears do not seem to be always grounded. Thus, the impact of enlargement which, it was feared, could have been so destabilizing for the Union because of potentially large migration flows, is more likely to be destabilizing for the new candidate countries, especially concerning their relations with their neighbours excluded from the enlargement process.

scholarly journals RISK-BASED APPROACH IN THE EUROPEAN UNION LEGISLATION TO PREVENT MONEY LAUNDERING AND FINANCING OF TERRORISM

2020 ◽  
pp. 43-52
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Money Laundering ◽  
National Level ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Specific Situation ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Member States ◽  
Financial Flows ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
The Eu

Money laundering and terrorism financing are serious and internationally emerging issues that must be approached and confronted at European Union level. The latest terrorist attacks and periodic banking scandals highlight the necessity for additional attention in this particular direction. In regard to the internal EU market, financial flows are integrated and trans-border by nature, thus funds can circulate rapidly, from one country to another, offering the possibility to perpetrators and terrorists to transfer money across Member State avoiding detection by authorities. This specific situation generates the necessity to identify and understand the particular ML/TF risks generated by services and products offered within the EU economic and financial ecosystem. In order to ensure an efficient mechanism for identifying the ML/TF risks associated with the products and services provided on the territory of European Union, the 4AMLD provides the obligation of the EU Commission to perform once in two years the so-called European Union Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Supranational Risk Assessment. Since 2017 two supra-national risk assessments were carried out and the final results are used by Member States to monitor the evolution of risks at Union level and to implement the necessary recommendation for ensuring a proper minimization of threats and vulnerabilities at the national level. This paper aims to analyze, understand and compare the main outcomes of the two assessments, namely the identified risks and their links with vulnerable sectors, as well as the evolution or devolution of certain risks as a result of mitigation measures applied by EU Member States. Another task of this article is to provide additional recommendations in terms of mitigating measures and efforts, which must be taken into account by Member States

scholarly journals Challenges and Perspectives of the EU Accession Policy — a Reflection on Criminal Law

Lex Russica ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 143-147
Author(s):  
M. Zekić
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Political Life ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
Accession Process ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Eu

Should we join the European Union or not? The European Union is not some imaginative goal to be pursued. It requires and offers concrete solutions. At the same time, it seeks out and establishes values and obligations to be fulfilled and inserted in a concrete political life. These obligations and values are universal and it is up to each state to assess whether the acceptance and realization of those interests and values is in its own interest. It should be borne in mind that the legal state and the rule of law, respect for human rights and freedoms, a market economy with developed social policy, fight against corruption and terrorism and many other values that the European Union stands for are essential to every democratic society and exactly these values are a goal that every human being strives for. Eurasian integration is also in favor of these values, but instead of ultimatum and conditioning, they offer a more flexible negotiation method.It is indisputable, at the moment, that in the region of the Western Balkans, the Republic of Serbia is at the back line of the European integration process. It has entered these processes as the last interested state, but in addition it constantly faces major internal problems and insufficient understanding, as well as new conditions that are constantly being set for its accession. If we add the fact that the decrease of the interest of citizens to join the European Union is currently being noticed, it is clear why the question of who to approach is becoming actualized. One of the goals of the reforms undertaken in the accession process is the harmonization of internal regulations with Communitarian Law. In doing so, it should be borne in mind that total harmonization is almost impossible.

Ukraina między Wschodem a Zachodem. Stanowisko Polski wobec akcesji Ukrainy do NATO i Unii Europejskiej

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-275
Author(s):  
Józef M. Fiszer
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Eu Enlargement ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Economic Determinants ◽  
Strategic Objective ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Eu

This article is devoted to Ukraine; its focus is to present geopolitical and geo-economic determinants of its foreign policy. They are the source of a dilemma for those who govern Ukraine and since 1991 have been looking for strategic directions of development and cooperation with both the East and the West. In practice, this amounts to balancing between Russia and the European Union, and the dilemma of whether to apply for accession to NATO and the EU or to strengthen cooperation with Russia has a significant impact on Ukraine’s internal and foreign policy from the moment of regaining independence to the present day. This difficult choice is determined by many historical, cultural, social, economic and international factors. Moreover, in this article I present Poland’s position on the Ukrainian dilemma and on Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the European Union. I try to answer a few questions about this, such as which of these options is better for Ukraine, whether western or eastern, and which of them is better for Poland and its reasons for state. I would like to put forward a few theses and hypotheses here. Among other things, I would like to state that Ukraine should pursue a realistic policy, i.e. it should not succumb to illusions and should tread firmly on the ground. NATO and the EU membership should be a strategic objective of its foreign policy. To this end, Ukraine should also cooperate with Poland, which consistently supports the policy of NATO and EU enlargement to the East, and with the European Union and the United States.

The second attempt to negotiate the association agreement

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arantza Gomez Arana
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
The European Union ◽  
International Crisis ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The One ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Eu

From the moment the European Union and Mercosur stopped their negotiations there was not progress or a real intention to re-start the negotiations again until 2010. Officially the EU and Mercosur “continued” negotiating the Association Agreement but it is fair to say that after such a failure at the last minute in October 2004, both sides becoming cautious in their hopes for a successful agreement. Considering that the negotiations failed publicly it is understandable to expect some years of “healing” before considering a new attempt. One more time, the right momentum was necessary to facilitate the re-launching of the negotiations. The economic environment was completely different from 2004. At this moment Europe is the one recovering from a financial crisis and from a weak Eurozone, while in Latin America this international crisis did not have that much of an effect. However in 2004 Brazil and Argentina were recovering from the economic crisis of the late 1990s early 2000s. The negotiations between the EU and other Latin American regional groups or individual countries were being successful. At the same time a third major investor and trader became an important piece of the puzzle, China. To some extent this could be seen as a better scenario for a successful agreement between both regions. The facilitator of the re-launching of the negotiations was one more time the Spanish presidency of 2010. Since then, several meetings have taken place between the EU and Mercosur, the last one in mid June in Brussels 2015.

(Br)Exit From the European Union—Control, Autonomy, and the Evolution of EU Law

2021 ◽  
pp. 399-430
Author(s):  
Kenneth A Armstrong
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Legal History ◽  
Eu Law ◽  
The European Union ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Rule Making ◽  
The Eu

(Br)Exit from the European Union offers a novel interpretation of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU). Rather than emphasizing the rupture and the exceptionalism of ‘Brexit’, this chapter argues that much can be understood about the evolution of EU law through the experience of the UK’s membership and eventual withdrawal from the EU. Section A evaluates whether the legal history of its membership—its encounter with EU rule-making and adjudication—can explain the UK’s preference for a ‘differentiated membership’ of the EU and eventual demands for control over its own laws. Section B focuses on the Article 50 TEU withdrawal process. It underscores that compliance with ‘constitutional requirements’ throughout the Article 50 process evidences co-evolution of the EU and domestic constitutional and legal orders even up to the moment of withdrawal. Section C projects forward to the evolving future relationship. It suggests that as the UK asserts its sovereignty outside of EU legal and institutional disciplines, the EU wants protection for its own autonomy.

scholarly journals Legal reforms in the field of public health and the accession of the Republic of Serbia to the European Union - a review of regulatory standards

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 506-512
Author(s):  
Marta Sjenicic ◽  
Marko Milenkovic
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
European Union ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Legal Reforms ◽  
Eu Legislation ◽  
Regulatory Standards ◽  
Accession Process ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Eu

Accession to the European Union (EU) is a comprehensive process of reforms and harmonization of legislation with EU regulations, which must be accompanied by the implementation of EU standards. Although the EU competencies in the field of health care are limited, and health law does not represent a large part of the EU legislation, harmonization and further reforms are needed in a number of areas. The main focus of this paper is the negotiation Chapter 28 within the EU accession process, which covers a number of thematic areas in the field of public health encompassing various legislative and strategic acts of the EU. At the moment, the EU has still not opened the negotiations in this field with Serbia. In order to introduce health professionals in Serbia to current developments, the paper analyzes the most important aspects of alignment with EU legislation and the need for further regulatory reforms.

scholarly journals Umocnienie praw jednostki w postępowaniu karnym w Unii Europejskiej a dyrektywa w sprawie dostępu do adwokata

2014 ◽  
pp. 11-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anastazja Gajda
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Legislative Process ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Criminal Proceedings ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Right ◽  
Right Of Access ◽  
The Eu

The paper deals with the new Directive on the right of access to a lawyer in criminal proceedings in EU. The Directive aims at straightening of the rights of suspects (defendants) as a result of introduction of minimal standards (article 82 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union). The Directive asserts the right of a suspect on the whole territory of the EU to remain in contact with his/her attorney from the moment of arrest until the end of criminal proceedings. The paper presents genesis of the Directive, the legislative process and analyses contents of the Directive.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document