scholarly journals Data driven inference of the reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 before and after interventions for 51 European countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petr Karnakov ◽  
Georgios Arampatzis ◽  
Ivica Kičić ◽  
Fabian Wermelinger ◽  
Daniel Wälchli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Geographic Proximity ◽  
Online Tool ◽  
Key Indicator ◽  
Efficient Sampling ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Sampling Algorithms ◽  
Bayesian Inference Framework

The reproduction number (R0) is broadly considered as a key indicator for the spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic. The estimation of its value with respect to the key threshold of 1.0 is a measure of the need, and eventually effectiveness, of interventions imposed in various countries. Here we present an online tool for the data driven inference and quantification of uncertainties for R0 as well as the time points of interventions for 51 European countries. The study relies on the Bayesian calibration of the simple and well established SIR model with data from reported daily infections. The model is able to fit the data for most countries without individual tuning of parameters. We deploy an open source Bayesian inference framework and efficient sampling algorithms to present a publicly available GUI (https://www.cse-lab.ethz.ch/coronavirus/) that allows the user to assess custom data and compare predictions for pairs of European countries. The results provide a ranking based on the rate of the disease's spread suggesting a metric for the effectiveness of social distancing measures. They also serve to demonstrate how geographic proximity and related times of interventions can lead to similarities in the progression of the epidemic.

scholarly journals Data-driven inference of the reproduction number for COVID-19 before and after interventions for 51 European countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petr Karnakov ◽  
Georgios Arampatzis ◽  
Ivica Kii ◽  
Fabian Wermelinger ◽  
Daniel Wlchli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Before And After

scholarly journals COVID-19 pandemic scenario in India compared to China and rest of the world: a data driven and model analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manisha Mandal ◽  
Shyamapada Mandal
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
The World ◽  
Before And After

AbstractThe COVID-19 is a rapidly spreading respiratory illness caused with the infection of SARS-CoV-2. The COVID-19 data from India was compared with China and rest of the world. The average values of daily growth rate (DGR), case recovery rate (CRR), case fatality rate (CFR), serial interval (SI) of COVID-19 in India was 17%, 8.25%, and 1.87%, and 5.76 days respectively, as of April 9, 2020. The data driven estimates of basic reproduction number (R0), average reproduction number (R) and effective reproduction number (Re) were 1.03, 1.73, and 1.35, respectively. The results of exponential and SIR model showed higher estimates of R0, R and Re. The data driven as well as estimated COVID-19 cases reflect the growing nature of the epidemic in India and world excluding China, whereas the same in China reveal the involved population became infected with the disease and moved into the recovered stage. The epidemic size of India was estimated to be ∼30,284 (as of April 15, 2020 with 12,370 infectious cases) with an estimated end of the epidemic on June 9, 2020. The Re values in India before and after lockdown were 1.62 and 1.37 respectively, with SI 5.52 days and 5.98 days, respectively, as of April 17, 2020, reflecting the effectiveness of lockdown strategies. Beyond April 17, 2020, our estimate of 24,431 COVID-19 infected cases with lockdown is 78% lower compared to the 112,042 case estimates in absence of lockdown, on April 27, 2020. To early end of the COVID-19 epidemic, strong social distancing is important.

scholarly journals Opening Schools and Trends in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in European Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandra Buja ◽  
Federico Zabeo ◽  
Vittorio Cristofori ◽  
Matteo Paganini ◽  
Tatjana Baldovin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Average Increase ◽  
Maximum Increase ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Mean

Objectives: Benefits of school attendance have been debated against SARS-CoV-2 contagion risks. This study examined the trends of contagion before and after schools reopened across 26 countries in the European Union.Methods: We compared the average values of estimated Rt before and after school reopening, identifying any significant increase with a one-sample t-test. A meta-analysis and meta-regression analysis were performed to calculate the overall increase in Rt for countries in the EU and to search for relationships between Rt before schools reopened and the average increase in Rt afterward.Results: The mean reproduction number increased in 16 out of 26 countries. The maximum increase in Rt was reached after a mean 28 days. We found a negative relationship between the Rt before school reopening and its increasing after that event. By 45 days after the first day of school reopening, the overall average increase in Rt for the European Union was 23%.Conclusion: We observed a significant increase in the mean reproduction number in most European countries, a public health issue that needs strategies to contain the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Yang ◽  
Valentina Marziano ◽  
Xiaowei Deng ◽  
Giorgio Guzzetta ◽  
Juanjuan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Synergetic Effect ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Large Populations ◽  
One Year ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractCOVID-19 vaccination is being conducted in over 200 countries and regions to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission and return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. However, understanding when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be lifted as immunity builds up remains a key question for policy makers. To address this, we built a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China. We estimated that, to prevent the escalation of local outbreaks to widespread epidemics, stringent NPIs need to remain in place at least one year after the start of vaccination. Should NPIs alone be capable of keeping the reproduction number (Rt) around 1.3, the synergetic effect of NPIs and vaccination could reduce the COVID-19 burden by up to 99% and bring Rt below the epidemic threshold in about 9 months. Maintaining strict NPIs throughout 2021 is of paramount importance to reduce COVID-19 burden while vaccines are distributed to the population, especially in large populations with little natural immunity.

scholarly journals The effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in different socioeconomic populations in Kuwait: a modeling study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatima Khadadah ◽  
Abdullah A. Al-Shammari ◽  
Ahmad Alhashemi ◽  
Dari Alhuwail ◽  
Bader Al-Saif ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Socioeconomic Groups ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Cross Transmission ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Abstract Background Aggressive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The extent to which these interventions are successful in stopping the spread have not been characterized in countries with distinct socioeconomic groups. We compared the effects of a partial lockdown on disease transmission among Kuwaitis (P1) and non-Kuwaitis (P2) living in Kuwait. Methods We fit a modified metapopulation SEIR transmission model to reported cases stratified by two groups to estimate the impact of a partial lockdown on the effective reproduction number ($$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e ). We estimated the basic reproduction number ($$ {\mathcal{R}}_0 $$ R 0 ) for the transmission in each group and simulated the potential trajectories of an outbreak from the first recorded case of community transmission until 12 days after the partial lockdown. We estimated $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e values of both groups before and after the partial curfew, simulated the effect of these values on the epidemic curves and explored a range of cross-transmission scenarios. Results We estimate $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e at 1·08 (95% CI: 1·00–1·26) for P1 and 2·36 (2·03–2·71) for P2. On March 22nd, $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e for P1 and P2 are estimated at 1·19 (1·04–1·34) and 1·75 (1·26–2·11) respectively. After the partial curfew had taken effect, $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e for P1 dropped modestly to 1·05 (0·82–1·26) but almost doubled for P2 to 2·89 (2·30–3·70). Our simulated epidemic trajectories show that the partial curfew measure greatly reduced and delayed the height of the peak in P1, yet significantly elevated and hastened the peak in P2. Modest cross-transmission between P1 and P2 greatly elevated the height of the peak in P1 and brought it forward in time closer to the peak of P2. Conclusion Our results indicate and quantify how the same lockdown intervention can accentuate disease transmission in some subpopulations while potentially controlling it in others. Any such control may further become compromised in the presence of cross-transmission between subpopulations. Future interventions and policies need to be sensitive to socioeconomic and health disparities.

scholarly journals Discrepancies in reported versus measured nicotine content of e-cigarette refill liquids across nine European countries before and after the implementation of the EU Tobacco Products Directive

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 1900941 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charis Girvalaki ◽  
Manolis Tzatzarakis ◽  
Alexander Vardavas ◽  
Christina N. Kyriakos ◽  
Katerina Nikitara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
European Countries ◽  
Tobacco Products ◽  
Nicotine Content ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Eu

Data-driven tools for assessing and combating COVID-19 outbreaks in Brazil based on analytics and statistical methods

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Data Analytics ◽  
Exploratory Data Analysis ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Exploratory Data ◽  
Using Data

The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the worst public health crises in Brazil and the world that has ever been faced. One of the main challenges that the healthcare systems have when decision-making is that the protocols tested in other epidemics do not guarantee success in controlling the spread of COVID-19, given its complexity. In this context, an effective response to guide the competent authorities in adopting public policies to fight COVID-19 depends on thoughtful analysis and effective data visualization, ideally based on different data sources. In this paper, we discuss and provide tools that can be helpful using data analytics to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak in Recife, Brazil. We use exploratory data analysis and inferential study to determine the trend changes in COVID-19 cases and their effective or instantaneous reproduction numbers. According to the data obtained of confirmed COVID-19 cases disaggregated at a regional level in this zone, we note a heterogeneous spread in most megaregions in Recife, Brazil. When incorporating quarantines decreed, effectiveness is detected in the regions. Our results indicate that the measures have effectively curbed the spread of the disease in Recife, Brazil. However, other factors can cause the effective reproduction number to not be within the expected ranges, which must be further studied.

scholarly journals Guidelines for depth data collection in rivers when applying interpolation techniques (kriging) for river restoration

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 1069-1094
Author(s):  
M. Rivas-Casado ◽  
S. White ◽  
P. Bellamy
Keyword(s):  
River Restoration ◽  
Sampling Strategy ◽  
Spatial Dimension ◽  
Sampling Strategies ◽  
Depth Data ◽  
Cyclic Patterns ◽  
Efficient Sampling ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Geostatistical Techniques ◽  
River Site

Abstract. River restoration appraisal requires the implementation of monitoring programmes that assess the river site before and after the restoration project. However, little work has yet been developed to design effective and efficient sampling strategies. Three main variables need to be considered when designing monitoring programmes: space, time and scale. The aim of this paper is to describe the methodology applied to analyse the variation of depth in space, scale and time so more comprehensive monitoring programmes can be developed. Geostatistical techniques were applied to study the spatial dimension (sampling strategy and density), spectral analysis was used to study the scale at which depth shows cyclic patterns, whilst descriptive statistics were used to assess the temporal variation. A brief set of guidelines have been summarised in the conclusion.

scholarly journals Variation in the prices of oncology medicines across Europe and the implications for the future

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 72-82
Author(s):  
Brian Godman ◽  
Steven Simoens ◽  
Amanj Kurdi ◽  
Gisbert Selke ◽  
John Yfantopoulos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Patent Protection ◽  
Lower Cost ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Oral Oncology ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Ageing Populations

Introduction/Objectives: Health authorities are facing increasing challenges to the sustainability of their healthcare systems because of the growing expenditures on medicines, including new, high-priced oncology medicines, and changes in disease prevalence in their ageing populations. Medicine prices in European countries are greatly affected by the ability to negotiate reasonable prices. Concerns have been expressed that prices of patented medicines do not fall sufficiently after the introduction of lower-cost generic oncology medicines. The objective of this study was to examine the associations over time in selected European countries between the prices of oral oncology medicines, population size, and gross domestic product (GDP) before and after the introduction of generic versions. Evidence of periodic reassessments of the price, value, and place in treatment of these medicines was also looked for. The goal of this review was to stimulate debate about possible improvements in approaches to reimbursement negotiations. Methodology: Analysis was performed of reimbursed prices of three oral oncology medicines (imatinib, erlotinib and fludarabine) between 2013 and 2017 across Europe. Correlations were explored between GDP, population size, and prices. Findings were compared with previous research regarding prices of generic oral oncology medicines. Results: The prices of imatinib, erlotinib and fludarabine varied among European countries, and there was limited price erosion over time in the absence of generics. There appeared to be no correlation between population size and price, but higher prices of on-patent oral cancer medicines were seen among countries with higher GDP per capita. Conclusion: Limited price erosion for patented medicines contributed to increases in oncology medicine budgets across the region. There was also a concerning lack of evidence re-assessments of the price, value, and place in treatment of patented oncology medicines following the loss of patent protection of standard medicines. The use of such proactive re-assessments in negotiating tactics might positively impact global expenditures for oncology medicines.

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