scholarly journals Predicted COVID-19 fatality rates based on age, sex, comorbidities, and health system capacity

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Selene Ghisolfi ◽  
Ingvild Ingvild Almas ◽  
Justin Sandefur ◽  
Tillman von Carnap ◽  
Jesse Heitner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Regional Differences ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Regional Estimates ◽  
Sub Saharan

Early reports suggest the fatality rate from COVID-19 varies greatly across countries, but non-random testing and incomplete vital registration systems render it impossible to directly estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) in many low- and middle-income countries. To fill this gap, we estimate the adjustments required to extrapolate estimates of the IFR from high- to lower-income regions. Accounting for differences in the distribution of age, sex, and relevant comorbidities yields substantial differences in the predicted IFR across 21 world regions, ranging from 0.11% in Western Sub-Saharan Africa to 0.95% for High Income Asia Pacific. However, these predictions must be treated as lower bounds, as they are grounded in fatality rates from countries with advanced health systems. In order to adjust for health system capacity, we incorporate regional differences in the relative odds of infection fatality from childhood influenza. This adjustment greatly diminishes, but does not entirely erase, the demography-based advantage predicted in the lowest income settings, with regional estimates of the predicted COVID-19 IFR ranging from 0.43% in Western Sub-Saharan Africa to 1.74% for Eastern Europe.

scholarly journals Predicted COVID-19 fatality rates based on age, sex, comorbidities and health system capacity

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (9) ◽  
pp. e003094 ◽  
Author(s):  
Selene Ghisolfi ◽  
Ingvild Almås ◽  
Justin C Sandefur ◽  
Tillman von Carnap ◽  
Jesse Heitner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
High Income ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Low And Middle Income

Early reports suggest the fatality rate from COVID-19 varies greatly across countries, but non-random testing and incomplete vital registration systems render it impossible to directly estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) in many low- and middle-income countries. To fill this gap, we estimate the adjustments required to extrapolate estimates of the IFR from high-income to lower-income regions. Accounting for differences in the distribution of age, sex and relevant comorbidities yields substantial differences in the predicted IFR across 21 world regions, ranging from 0.11% in Western Sub-Saharan Africa to 1.07% for high-income Asia Pacific. However, these predictions must be treated as lower bounds in low- and middle-income countries as they are grounded in fatality rates from countries with advanced health systems. To adjust for health system capacity, we incorporate regional differences in the relative odds of infection fatality from childhood respiratory syncytial virus. This adjustment greatly diminishes but does not entirely erase the demography-based advantage predicted in the lowest income settings, with regional estimates of the predicted COVID-19 IFR ranging from 0.37% in Western Sub-Saharan Africa to 1.45% for Eastern Europe.

scholarly journals Gestational weight gain in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling analysis using nationally representative data

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. e003423
Author(s):  
Dongqing Wang ◽  
Molin Wang ◽  
Anne Marie Darling ◽  
Nandita Perumal ◽  
Enju Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weight Gain ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Gestational Weight ◽  
Latin America And Caribbean ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Sub Saharan

IntroductionGestational weight gain (GWG) has important implications for maternal and child health and is an ideal modifiable factor for preconceptional and antenatal care. However, the average levels of GWG across all low-income and middle-income countries of the world have not been characterised using nationally representative data.MethodsGWG estimates across time were computed using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys Program. A hierarchical model was developed to estimate the mean total GWG in the year 2015 for all countries to facilitate cross-country comparison. Year and country-level covariates were used as predictors, and variable selection was guided by the model fit. The final model included year (restricted cubic splines), geographical super-region (as defined by the Global Burden of Disease Study), mean adult female body mass index, gross domestic product per capita and total fertility rate. Uncertainty ranges (URs) were generated using non-parametric bootstrapping and a multiple imputation approach. Estimates were also computed for each super-region and region.ResultsLatin America and Caribbean (11.80 kg (95% UR: 6.18, 17.41)) and Central Europe, Eastern Europe and Central Asia (11.19 kg (95% UR: 6.16, 16.21)) were the super-regions with the highest GWG estimates in 2015. Sub-Saharan Africa (6.64 kg (95% UR: 3.39, 9.88)) and North Africa and Middle East (6.80 kg (95% UR: 3.17, 10.43)) were the super-regions with the lowest estimates in 2015. With the exception of Latin America and Caribbean, all super-regions were below the minimum GWG recommendation for normal-weight women, with Sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa and Middle East estimated to meet less than 60% of the minimum recommendation.ConclusionThe levels of GWG are inadequate in most low-income and middle-income countries and regions. Longitudinal monitoring systems and population-based interventions are crucial to combat inadequate GWG in low-income and middle-income countries.

scholarly journals Assessing trauma care systems in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and evidence synthesis mapping the Three Delays framework to injury health system assessments

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. e004324
Author(s):  
John Whitaker ◽  
Nollaig O'Donohoe ◽  
Max Denning ◽  
Dan Poenaru ◽  
Elena Guadagno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Health System ◽  
Evidence Synthesis ◽  
Rapid Assessment ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Trauma Systems ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Low Middle Income Countries ◽  
Three Delays

BackgroundThe large burden of injuries falls disproportionately on low/middle-income countries (LMICs). Health system interventions improve outcomes in high-income countries. Assessing LMIC trauma systems supports their improvement. Evaluating systems using a Three Delays framework, considering barriers to seeking (Delay 1), reaching (Delay 2) and receiving care (Delay 3), has aided maternal health gains. Rapid assessments allow timely appraisal within resource and logistically constrained settings. We systematically reviewed existing literature on the assessment of LMIC trauma systems, applying the Three Delays framework and rapid assessment principles.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and narrative synthesis of articles assessing LMIC trauma systems. We searched seven databases and grey literature for studies and reports published until October 2018. Inclusion criteria were an injury care focus and assessment of at least one defined system aspect. We mapped each study to the Three Delays framework and judged its suitability for rapid assessment.ResultsOf 14 677 articles identified, 111 studies and 8 documents were included. Sub-Saharan Africa was the most commonly included region (44.1%). Delay 3, either alone or in combination, was most commonly assessed (79.3%) followed by Delay 2 (46.8%) and Delay 1 (10.8%). Facility assessment was the most common method of assessment (36.0%). Only 2.7% of studies assessed all Three Delays. We judged 62.6% of study methodologies potentially suitable for rapid assessment.ConclusionsWhole health system injury research is needed as facility capacity assessments dominate. Future studies should consider novel or combined methods to study Delays 1 and 2, alongside care processes and outcomes.

scholarly journals Are low and middle-income countries prioritising high-value healthcare interventions?

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. e001850
Author(s):  
Ashley A Leech ◽  
David D Kim ◽  
Joshua T Cohen ◽  
Peter J Neumann
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Cost Saving ◽  
National Health ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Health Plans ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Health Priority ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Low And Middle Income

IntroductionSince resources are finite, investing in services that produce the highest health gain ‘return on investment’ is critical. We assessed the extent to which low and middle-income countries (LMIC) have included cost-saving interventions in their national strategic health plans.MethodsWe used the Tufts Medical Center Global Health Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry, an open-source database of English-language cost-per-disability-adjusted life year (DALY) studies, to identify analyses published in the last 10 years (2008–2017) of cost-saving health interventions in LMICs. To assess whether countries prioritised cost-saving interventions within their latest national health strategic plans, we identified 10 countries, all in sub-Saharan Africa, with the highest measures on the global burden of disease scale and reviewed their national health priority plans.ResultsWe identified 392 studies (63%) targeting LMICs that reported 3315 cost-per-DALY ratios, of which 207 ratios (6%) represented interventions reported to be cost saving. Over half (53%) of these targeted sub-Saharan Africa. For the 10 countries we investigated in sub-Saharan Africa, 58% (79/137) of cost-saving interventions correspond with priorities identified in country plans. Alignment ranged from 95% (21/22 prioritised cost-saving ratios) in South Africa to 17% (2/12 prioritised cost-saving ratios) in Cameroon. Human papillomavirus vaccination was a noted priority in 70% (7/10) of national health prioritisation plans, while 40% (4/10) of countries explicitly included prenatal serological screening for syphilis. HIV prevention and treatment were stated priorities in most country health plans, whereas 40% (2/5) of countries principally outlined efforts for lymphatic filariasis. From our sample of 45 unique interventions, 36% of interventions (16/45) included costs associated directly with the implementation of the intervention.ConclusionOur findings indicate substantial variation across country and disease area in incorporating economic evidence into national health priority plans in a sample of sub-Saharan African countries. To make health economic data more salient, the authors of cost-effectiveness analyses must do more to reflect implementation costs and other factors that could limit healthcare delivery.

scholarly journals Preventing Multimorbidity with Lifestyle Interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa: A New Challenge for Public Health in Low and Middle-Income Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (23) ◽  
pp. 12449
Author(s):  
Ahmad Alkhatib ◽  
Lawrence Achilles Nnyanzi ◽  
Brian Mujuni ◽  
Geofrey Amanya ◽  
Charles Ibingira
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Lifestyle Interventions ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Non Communicable Diseases ◽  
Economic Disparity ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Sub Saharan

Objectives: Low and Middle-Income Countries are experiencing a fast-paced epidemiological rise in clusters of non-communicable diseases such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease, forming an imminent rise in multimorbidity. However, preventing multimorbidity has received little attention in LMICs, especially in Sub-Saharan African Countries. Methods: Narrative review which scoped the most recent evidence in LMICs about multimorbidity determinants and appropriated them for potential multimorbidity prevention strategies. Results: MMD in LMICs is affected by several determinants including increased age, female sex, environment, lower socio-economic status, obesity, and lifestyle behaviours, especially poor nutrition, and physical inactivity. Multimorbidity public health interventions in LMICs, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa are currently impeded by local and regional economic disparity, underdeveloped healthcare systems, and concurrent prevalence of communicable and non-communicable diseases. However, lifestyle interventions that are targeted towards preventing highly prevalent multimorbidity clusters, especially hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, can provide early prevention of multimorbidity, especially within Sub-Saharan African countries with emerging economies and socio-economic disparity. Conclusion: Future public health initiatives should consider targeted lifestyle interventions and appropriate policies and guidelines in preventing multimorbidity in LMICs.

P1586Research network in Africa (RNA): antihypertensive drugs strategies in 12 African countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Kane ◽  
P Cavagna ◽  
I B Diop ◽  
B Gaye ◽  
J B Mipinda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Antihypertensive Drugs ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Sub Saharan

Abstract Background High Blood Pressure is the worldwide leading global burden of disease risk factor. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the number of adults with raised blood pressure has alarmingly increased from 0.59 to 1.13 billion between 1975 and 2015. Blood pressure-lowering medicines are cornerstone of cardiovascular risk reduction. Data on management of anti-hypertensive drugs in sub-Saharan Africa are squarce. Purpose Our study aims to describe antihypertensive drugs strategies in Africa. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey in urban clinics during outpatient consultation specialized in hypertension cardiology departments of 29 medical centers from 17 cities across 12 African countries (Benin, Cameroon, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, Mozambic, Niger, Senegal, Togo). Data were collected on demographics, treatment and standardized BP measures were made among the hypertensive patients attending the clinics. Country income was retrieved from the World Bank database. All analyses were performed through scripts developed in the R software (3.4.1 (2017–06–30)). Results A total of 2198 hypertensive patients (58.4±11.8 years; 39.9% male) were included. Among whom 2123 (96.6%) had at least one antihypertensive drug. Overall, 30.8% (n=653) received monotherapy and calcium-channel blockers (49.6%) were the most common monotherapy prescribed follow by diuretics (18.7%). Two-drug strategies were prescribed for 927 patients (43.6%). Diuretics and Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors was the combination most frequently prescribed (33.7%). Combination of three drugs or more was used in 25.6% (n=543) of patients. The proportion of drugs strategies differed significantly according to countries (p<0.001), monotherapy ranged from 12.7% in Niger to 47.1% in Democratic Republic of the Congo (figure). Furthermore we observed a significantly difference of strategies between low and middle income countries (55.3% and 44.7% of monotherapy respectively) (p<0.001). According to hypertension grades 1, 2 and 3, the proportion of three-drugs or more combination was 25%, 28% and 34% in middle-income and lower in low-income countries (18%, 19% and 25%). Furthermore, Grade 3 hypertension in low income countries was still treated with monotherapy (36%) instead of 19% in middle income countries (p<0.01). Antihypertensive strategies by country Conclusion Our study described antihypertensive drugs use across 12 sub-Saharan countries, and identified disparities specific to the income context. Inequity in access to drugs combination is a serious barrier to tackle the burden of hypertension in Africa.

scholarly journals Research on Invasive Nontyphoidal Salmonella Disease and Developments Towards Better Understanding of Epidemiology, Management, and Control Strategies

2020 ◽  
Vol 71 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. S127-S129
Author(s):  
Samuel Kariuki ◽  
Ellis Owusu-Dabo
Keyword(s):  
Burden Of Illness ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Disease Entity ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Diagnostic Strategies ◽  
Disease Epidemiology ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
And Control

Abstract During the 11th International Conference on Typhoid and Other Invasive Salmonelloses held in Hanoi, Vietnam, a number of papers were presented on the burden of disease, epidemiology, genomics, management, and control strategies for invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) disease, which is increasingly becoming an important public health threat in low- and middle-income countries, but especially in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA). Although there were minor variations in characteristics of iNTS in different settings (urban vs rural, country to country), it was observed that iNTS has gained greater recognition as a major disease entity in children younger than 5 years. Renewed efforts towards greater understanding of the burden of illness, detection and diagnostic strategies, and management and control of the disease in communities in sSA through the introduction of vaccines will be important.

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