scholarly journals Health and Economic Costs of Early, Delayed and No Suppression of COVID-19: The Case of Australia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Kompas ◽  
R. Quentin Grafton ◽  
Tuong Nhu Che ◽  
Long Chu ◽  
James Camac
Keyword(s):  
Compartment Model ◽  
Health Costs ◽  
Value Of Statistical Life ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
A Value ◽  
Welfare Losses ◽  
Fit For Purpose ◽  
Recorded Data

AbstractWe compare the health and economic costs of early (actual), delayed and no suppression of COVID-19 infections in 2020 in Australia. Using a fit-for-purpose compartment model that we fitted from recorded data, a value of a statistical life year (VSLY) and an age-adjusted value of statistical life (A-VSL), we find: (1) the economic costs of no suppression are multiples more than for early suppression; (2) VSLY welfare losses of fatalities equivalent to GDP losses mean that for early suppression to not to be the preferred strategy requires that Australians prefer more than 12,500–30,000 deaths to the economy costs of early suppression, depending on the fatality rate; and (3) early rather than delayed suppression imposes much lower economy and health costs. We conclude that in high-income countries, like Australia, a ‘go early, go hard’ strategy to suppress COVID-19 results in the lowest estimated public health and economy costs.

scholarly journals Health and economic costs of early and delayed suppression and the unmitigated spread of COVID-19: The case of Australia

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. e0252400
Author(s):  
Tom Kompas ◽  
R. Quentin Grafton ◽  
Tuong Nhu Che ◽  
Long Chu ◽  
James Camac
Keyword(s):  
Compartment Model ◽  
Health Costs ◽  
Value Of Statistical Life ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
A Value ◽  
Fit For Purpose ◽  
Recorded Data ◽  
The Impact

We compare the health and economic costs of early and delayed mandated suppression and the unmitigated spread of ‘first-wave’ COVID-19 infections in Australia in 2020. Using a fit-for-purpose SIQRM-compartment model for susceptible, infected, quarantined, recovered and mortalities on active cases, that we fitted from recorded data, a value of a statistical life year (VSLY) and an age-adjusted value of statistical life (A-VSL), we find that the economic costs of unmitigated suppression are multiples more than for early mandated suppression. We also find that using an equivalent VSLY welfare loss from fatalities to estimated GDP losses, drawn from survey data and our own estimates of the impact of suppression measures on the economy, means that for early suppression not to be the preferred strategy requires that Australia would have to incur more than 12,500–30,000 deaths, depending on the fatality rate with unmitigated spread, to the economy costs of early mandated suppression. We also find that early rather than delayed mandated suppression imposes much lower economy and health costs and conclude that in high-income countries, like Australia, a ‘go early, go hard’ strategy to suppress COVID-19 results in the lowest estimated public health and economy costs.

scholarly journals Inclusive Costs of NPI Measures for COVID-19 Pandemic: Three Approaches

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Ugarov
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Value Of Statistical Life ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Drastic Reduction ◽  
Aggressive Approach ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
The Us ◽  
Lost Productivity

AbstractThe paper evaluates total inclusive costs of three public health approaches to address the COVID-19 epidemic in the US based on epidemiological projections in Ferguson et al (2020). We calculate and add costs of lost productivity and costs of mortality measured through the value of statistical life. We find that the aggressive approach which involves strict suppression measures and a drastic reduction of economic activity for three months with extensive testing and case tracking afterwards results in the lowest total costs for the society. The approach of doing no non-pharmaceutical measures results in the lowest total costs if the infection fatality rate falls below 0.15%.

scholarly journals Groundwater Arsenic-Attributable Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Mortality Risks in India

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 2232
Author(s):  
Ruohan Wu ◽  
Lingqian Xu ◽  
David A. Polya
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Exposure ◽  
Population Attributable Fraction ◽  
Attributable Fraction ◽  
Value Of Statistical Life ◽  
Mortality Risks ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
Exposure Pathway ◽  
Groundwater Arsenic ◽  
Cvd Mortality ◽  
High Arsenic

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have been recognized as the most serious non-carcinogenic detrimental health outcome arising from chronic exposure to arsenic. Drinking arsenic contaminated groundwaters is a critical and common exposure pathway for arsenic, notably in India and other countries in the circum-Himalayan region. Notwithstanding this, there has hitherto been a dearth of data on the likely impacts of this exposure on CVD in India. In this study, CVD mortality risks arising from drinking groundwater with high arsenic (>10 μg/L) in India and its constituent states, territories, and districts were quantified using the population-attributable fraction (PAF) approach. Using a novel pseudo-contouring approach, we estimate that between 58 and 64 million people are exposed to arsenic exceeding 10 μg/L in groundwater-derived drinking water in India. On an all-India basis, we estimate that 0.3–0.6% of CVD mortality is attributable to exposure to high arsenic groundwaters, corresponding to annual avoidable premature CVD-related deaths attributable to chronic exposure to groundwater arsenic in India of between around 6500 and 13,000. Based on the reported reduction in life of 12 to 28 years per death due to heart disease, we calculate value of statistical life (VSL) based annual costs to India of arsenic-attributable CVD mortality of between USD 750 million and USD 3400 million.

The Value of Statistical Life

2012 ◽  
pp. 412-443 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. R. Shanmugam ◽  
S. Madheswaran ◽  
A. K. Enamul Haque ◽  
M. N. Murty ◽  
Priya Shyamsundar
Keyword(s):  
Value Of Statistical Life ◽  
Statistical Life

COVID-19 and the International Political Economy of Risk and Resilience

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Bernards
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
International Political Economy ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Health Costs ◽  
Risk And Resilience ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Global Political Economy ◽  
The Public ◽  
And Control ◽  
Development Agendas

This forum contribution highlights the confluence of two distinct trends in the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath. On one hand, many of the worst socio-economic costs of the virus and control measures have been disproportionately borne by marginalized workers, primarily in the global south. Often these impacts have not overlapped with the public health costs of the virus itself. In this sense the pandemic has highlighted the ways that risks in the global political economy are unevenly and systematically distributed. On the other, early indications are that highly individualized notions of ‘risk management’ and ‘resilience’ will be central to post-crisis global development agendas. At the same time as the COVID-19 pandemic has made the systemic and unequal nature of risks in the global political economy visible, then, many of the most marginalized segments of the world’s population are being asked to take responsibility for managing those risks.

scholarly journals Comparing the Application of CEA and BCA to Tuberculosis Control Interventions in South Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (S1) ◽  
pp. 132-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Wilkinson ◽  
Fiammetta Bozzani ◽  
Anna Vassall ◽  
Michelle Remme ◽  
Edina Sinanovic
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Value Of Statistical Life ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Benefit Cost Analysis ◽  
Tb Control ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
Benefit Cost ◽  
The Impact

Achieving ambitious targets to address the global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic requires consideration of the impact of competing interventions for improved identification of patients with TB. Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and benefit-cost analysis (BCA) are two approaches to economic evaluation that assess the costs and effects of competing alternatives. However, the differing theoretical basis and methodological approach to CEA and BCA is likely to result in alternative analytical outputs and potentially different policy interpretations. A BCA was conducted by converting an existing CEA on various combinations of TB control interventions in South Africa using a benefits transfer approach to estimate the value of statistical life (VSL) and value of statistical life year (VSLY). All combinations of interventions reduced untreated active disease compared to current TB control, reducing deaths by between 5,000 and 75,000 and resulting in net benefits of Int$3.2–Int$137 billion (ZAR18.1 billion to ZAR764 billion) over a 20-year period. This analysis contributes to development and application of BCA methods for health interventions and demonstrates that further investment in TB control in South Africa is expected to yield significant benefits. Further work is required to guide the appropriate analytical approach, interpretation and policy recommendations in the South African policy perspective and context.

scholarly journals PMC61 THE IMPLICIT VALUE OF STATISTICAL LIFE: ESTIMATES DERIVED FROM PUBLIC INTERVENTIONS IMPLEMENTED IN THE NETHERLANDS

2008 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. A578
Author(s):  
AFG Goebbels ◽  
AJHA Ament ◽  
A Novák ◽  
CPWM Veraart ◽  
JL Severens
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Value Of Statistical Life ◽  
Statistical Life
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