scholarly journals Health and economic costs of early and delayed suppression and the unmitigated spread of COVID-19: The case of Australia

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. e0252400
Author(s):  
Tom Kompas ◽  
R. Quentin Grafton ◽  
Tuong Nhu Che ◽  
Long Chu ◽  
James Camac
Keyword(s):  
Compartment Model ◽  
Health Costs ◽  
Value Of Statistical Life ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
A Value ◽  
Fit For Purpose ◽  
Recorded Data ◽  
The Impact

We compare the health and economic costs of early and delayed mandated suppression and the unmitigated spread of ‘first-wave’ COVID-19 infections in Australia in 2020. Using a fit-for-purpose SIQRM-compartment model for susceptible, infected, quarantined, recovered and mortalities on active cases, that we fitted from recorded data, a value of a statistical life year (VSLY) and an age-adjusted value of statistical life (A-VSL), we find that the economic costs of unmitigated suppression are multiples more than for early mandated suppression. We also find that using an equivalent VSLY welfare loss from fatalities to estimated GDP losses, drawn from survey data and our own estimates of the impact of suppression measures on the economy, means that for early suppression not to be the preferred strategy requires that Australia would have to incur more than 12,500–30,000 deaths, depending on the fatality rate with unmitigated spread, to the economy costs of early mandated suppression. We also find that early rather than delayed mandated suppression imposes much lower economy and health costs and conclude that in high-income countries, like Australia, a ‘go early, go hard’ strategy to suppress COVID-19 results in the lowest estimated public health and economy costs.

scholarly journals Health and Economic Costs of Early, Delayed and No Suppression of COVID-19: The Case of Australia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Kompas ◽  
R. Quentin Grafton ◽  
Tuong Nhu Che ◽  
Long Chu ◽  
James Camac
Keyword(s):  
Compartment Model ◽  
Health Costs ◽  
Value Of Statistical Life ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
A Value ◽  
Welfare Losses ◽  
Fit For Purpose ◽  
Recorded Data

AbstractWe compare the health and economic costs of early (actual), delayed and no suppression of COVID-19 infections in 2020 in Australia. Using a fit-for-purpose compartment model that we fitted from recorded data, a value of a statistical life year (VSLY) and an age-adjusted value of statistical life (A-VSL), we find: (1) the economic costs of no suppression are multiples more than for early suppression; (2) VSLY welfare losses of fatalities equivalent to GDP losses mean that for early suppression to not to be the preferred strategy requires that Australians prefer more than 12,500–30,000 deaths to the economy costs of early suppression, depending on the fatality rate; and (3) early rather than delayed suppression imposes much lower economy and health costs. We conclude that in high-income countries, like Australia, a ‘go early, go hard’ strategy to suppress COVID-19 results in the lowest estimated public health and economy costs.

scholarly journals Comparing the Application of CEA and BCA to Tuberculosis Control Interventions in South Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (S1) ◽  
pp. 132-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Wilkinson ◽  
Fiammetta Bozzani ◽  
Anna Vassall ◽  
Michelle Remme ◽  
Edina Sinanovic
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Value Of Statistical Life ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Benefit Cost Analysis ◽  
Tb Control ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
Benefit Cost ◽  
The Impact

Achieving ambitious targets to address the global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic requires consideration of the impact of competing interventions for improved identification of patients with TB. Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and benefit-cost analysis (BCA) are two approaches to economic evaluation that assess the costs and effects of competing alternatives. However, the differing theoretical basis and methodological approach to CEA and BCA is likely to result in alternative analytical outputs and potentially different policy interpretations. A BCA was conducted by converting an existing CEA on various combinations of TB control interventions in South Africa using a benefits transfer approach to estimate the value of statistical life (VSL) and value of statistical life year (VSLY). All combinations of interventions reduced untreated active disease compared to current TB control, reducing deaths by between 5,000 and 75,000 and resulting in net benefits of Int$3.2–Int$137 billion (ZAR18.1 billion to ZAR764 billion) over a 20-year period. This analysis contributes to development and application of BCA methods for health interventions and demonstrates that further investment in TB control in South Africa is expected to yield significant benefits. Further work is required to guide the appropriate analytical approach, interpretation and policy recommendations in the South African policy perspective and context.

Trastuzumab (T) and everolimus (E) pharmacokinetics (PK) in HER2 positive (+) primary breast cancer (BC) patients (pts): Unicancer RADHER trial results.

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 2599-2599
Author(s):  
Guillemette Bernadou ◽  
Keyvan Rezai ◽  
Jean-Louis Merlin ◽  
Mario Campone ◽  
Francois Lokiec ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Body Weight ◽  
Half Life ◽  
Tumor Volume ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
Her2 Positive ◽  
Elimination Half Life ◽  
A Value ◽  
Two Compartment Model ◽  
Elimination Half ◽  
The Impact

2599 Background: T has greatly modified the prognosis of HER2+ BC, but few studies have analyzed its PK. The RADHER study evaluated the interest of adding E to T as preoperative therapy for primary HER2+ BC. It also aimed at describing the PK of T and studying the impact of E with T in primary BC. Methods: Eligible pts with HER2+ operable primary BC were randomized to receive T alone (loading dose 4 mg/kg, then 2 mg/kg/week (W)) or T + E (10 mg/day (D)) for a 6-W pre-operative treatment. Blood samples were collected to measure T and E concentrations. For T, plasma samples were collected in all pts before each infusion, and at Hour (H) 1, D1, D3, W1, W2, W4, W8 and W12 after the last infusion. E concentrations were determined on whole blood collected at H0, H0.5, H1, H2, H4, H6, H12 and H24 after the first T infusion, and again after the last E intake. T and E PK were described using population compartment analyses. Results: From 82 pts randomized, 79 were evaluable for T and 22 for E PK. Mean estimated PK parameters of T were (interindividual coefficient of variation %): central (Vc) and peripheral (Vp) volumes of distribution = 2 L (24%) and 1.3 L (39%), systemic (CL) and intercompartment (Q) clearances = 0.22 L/day (19%) and 0.36 L/day, respectively. Vc increased with body weight and decreased with age, while CL increased with body weight and with tumor volume. Elimination half-life was 11 days, a value lower than that previously reported in metastatic BC (28 days). E PK was best described by a two-compartment model. Mean estimated PK parameters (RSE%) of E were: CL = 3.96 L/h (22%), Q = 29.1 L/h (7%), Vc = 119 L (11%), Vp = 1530 L (24%). E did not influence T PK. E PK was similar to that previously reported in other indications. Conclusions: This is the first study describing the PK of T and E in primary BC. Notably, T CL increases with tumor volume and the elimination half-life is only 11 days, lower than expected from previous results in metastatic BC. The differences in PK between primary and metastatic BC might lead to take a second look at trastuzumab dose regimen in primary BC. Clinical trial information: NCT00674414.

scholarly journals Inclusive Costs of NPI Measures for COVID-19 Pandemic: Three Approaches

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Ugarov
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Value Of Statistical Life ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Drastic Reduction ◽  
Aggressive Approach ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
The Us ◽  
Lost Productivity

AbstractThe paper evaluates total inclusive costs of three public health approaches to address the COVID-19 epidemic in the US based on epidemiological projections in Ferguson et al (2020). We calculate and add costs of lost productivity and costs of mortality measured through the value of statistical life. We find that the aggressive approach which involves strict suppression measures and a drastic reduction of economic activity for three months with extensive testing and case tracking afterwards results in the lowest total costs for the society. The approach of doing no non-pharmaceutical measures results in the lowest total costs if the infection fatality rate falls below 0.15%.

Influence of social networks on business processes’ development

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 2225-2252
Author(s):  
E.V. Popov ◽  
V.L. Simonova ◽  
O.V. Komarova ◽  
S.S. Kaigorodova
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Business Processes ◽  
Digital Economy ◽  
Theoretical Understanding ◽  
Sales Channels ◽  
A Value ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The emergence of new ways of interaction between sellers and buyers, the formation of new sales channels and product promotion based on the use of digital economy tools is at the heart of improving the business processes. Social networks became a tool for development; their rapid growth necessitates theoretical understanding and identification of potential application in enterprise's business process digitalization. Objectives. We explore the role of social media in the digitalization of business processes, systematize the impact of social networks on business processes of enterprises in the digital economy. Methods. The theoretical and methodological analysis of social networks as a tool for digitalization of company's business processes rests on the content analysis of domestic and foreign scientific studies, comparison, generalization and systematization. Results. We highlight the key effects of the impact of social networks on the business processes of the company; show that the digitalization of business processes should be considered in the context of a value-based approach, aimed at creating a value through the algorithmization of company operations. We determine that social networks are one of the most important tools for digitalization of company's business processes, as they have a high organizational and management potential. We also systematize the effects of social media on company's business processes. Conclusions. We present theoretical provisions of the impact of social networks on business processes of enterprises, which will enable to model and organize ideas about the development of digital ecosystems and the formation of business models.

Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Youssef Kada
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Therapeutic Protocol ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

Optimizing electronic capture of patient-reported outcome measures in oncology clinical trials: lessons learned from a qualitative study

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (17) ◽  
pp. 1195-1204
Author(s):  
Florence D Mowlem ◽  
Brad Sanderson ◽  
Jill V Platko ◽  
Bill Byrom
Keyword(s):  
Patient Reported Outcome Measures ◽  
Patient Reported Outcome ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Patient Reported ◽  
Oncology Clinical Trials ◽  
Anticancer Treatment ◽  
Fit For Purpose ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Electronic Implementation

Aim: To understand the impact of anticancer treatment on oncology patients’ ability to use electronic solutions for completing patient-reported outcomes (ePRO). Materials & methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with seven individuals who had experienced a cancer diagnosis and treatment. Results: Participants reported that the following would impact the ability to interact with an ePRO solution: peripheral neuropathy of the hands (4/7), fatigue and/or concentration and memory issues (6/7), where they are in a treatment cycle (5/7). Approaches to improve usability included: larger, well-spaced buttons to deal with finger numbness, the ability to pause a survey and complete at a later point and presenting the recall period with every question to reduce reliance on memory. Conclusion: Symptoms associated with cancers and anticancer treatments can impact the use of technologies. The recommendations for optimizing the electronic implementation of patient-reported outcome instruments in this population provides the potential to improve data quality in oncology trials and places patient needs at the forefront to ensure ‘fit-for-purpose’ solutions.

scholarly journals Gamification and Hazard Communication in Virtual Reality: A Qualitative Study

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (14) ◽  
pp. 4663
Author(s):  
Janaina Cavalcanti ◽  
Victor Valls ◽  
Manuel Contero ◽  
David Fonseca
Keyword(s):  
Virtual Reality ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Training Environment ◽  
Hazard Communication ◽  
Head Mounted Display ◽  
Compliance Behavior ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Recorded Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels

An effective warning attracts attention, elicits knowledge, and enables compliance behavior. Game mechanics, which are directly linked to human desires, stand out as training, evaluation, and improvement tools. Immersive virtual reality (VR) facilitates training without risk to participants, evaluates the impact of an incorrect action/decision, and creates a smart training environment. The present study analyzes the user experience in a gamified virtual environment of risks using the HTC Vive head-mounted display. The game was developed in the Unreal game engine and consisted of a walk-through maze composed of evident dangers and different signaling variables while user action data were recorded. To demonstrate which aspects provide better interaction, experience, perception and memory, three different warning configurations (dynamic, static and smart) and two different levels of danger (low and high) were presented. To properly assess the impact of the experience, we conducted a survey about personality and knowledge before and after using the game. We proceeded with the qualitative approach by using questions in a bipolar laddering assessment that was compared with the recorded data during the game. The findings indicate that when users are engaged in VR, they tend to test the consequences of their actions rather than maintaining safety. The results also reveal that textual signal variables are not accessed when users are faced with the stress factor of time. Progress is needed in implementing new technologies for warnings and advance notifications to improve the evaluation of human behavior in virtual environments of high-risk surroundings.

scholarly journals Determining the Role of Acidity, Fate and Formation of IEPOX-Derived SOA in CMAQ

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 707
Author(s):  
Petros Vasilakos ◽  
Yongtao Hu ◽  
Armistead Russell ◽  
Athanasios Nenes
Keyword(s):  
Significant Influence ◽  
Organic Aerosol ◽  
Liquid Water Content ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
So2 Emissions ◽  
Aerosol Acidity ◽  
A Value ◽  
Future Emission ◽  
The Impact

Formation of aerosol from biogenic hydrocarbons relies heavily on anthropogenic emissions since they control the availability of species such as sulfate and nitrate, and through them, aerosol acidity (pH). To elucidate the role that acidity and emissions play in regulating Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA), we utilize the 2013 Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS) dataset to enhance the extensive mechanism of isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX)-mediated SOA formation implemented in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model (Pye et al., 2013), which was then used to investigate the impact of potential future emission controls on IEPOX OA. We found that the Henry’s law coefficient for IEPOX was the most impactful parameter that controls aqueous isoprene OA products, and a value of 1.9 × 107 M atm−1 provides the best agreement with measurements. Non-volatile cations (NVCs) were found in higher-than-expected quantities in CMAQ and exerted a significant influence on IEPOX OA by reducing its production by as much as 30% when present. Consistent with previous literature, a strong correlation of isoprene OA with sulfate, and little correlation with acidity or liquid water content, was found. Future reductions in SO2 emissions are found to not affect this correlation and generally act to increase the sensitivity of IEPOX OA to sulfate, even in extreme cases.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document