scholarly journals Spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue in Colombia in relation to the combined effects of local climate and ENSO

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Estefanía Muñoz ◽  
Germán Poveda ◽  
María Patricia Arbeláez ◽  
Iván Darío Vélez
Keyword(s):  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
The Andes ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Cross Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Cross Wavelet

Dengue virus (DENV) is an endemic disease in the hot and humid low-lands of Colombia. We characterize diverse temporal and spatial patterns of monthly series of dengue incidence in diverse regions of Colombia during the period 2007-2017 at different spatial scales, and their association with indices of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the tropical Pacific and local climatic variables. For estimation purposes, we use linear analysis tools including lagged cross-correlations (Pearson test), cross wavelet analysis (wavelet cross spectrum, and wavelet coherence), as well as a novel nonlinear causality method, PCMCI, that allows identifying common causal drivers and links among high dimensional simultaneous and time-lagged variables. Our results evidence the strong association of DENV cases in Colombia with ENSO indices and with local temperature and rainfall. El Niño (La Niña) phenomenon is related to an increase (decrease) of dengue cases nationally and in most regions and departments, with maximum correlations occurring at shorter time lags in the Pacific and Andes regions, closer to the Pacific Ocean. This association is mainly explained by the ENSO-driven increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall, especially in the Andes and Pacific regions. The influence of ENSO is not stationary (there is a reduction of DENV cases since 2005) and local climate variables vary in space and time, which prevents to extrapolate results from one site to another. The association between DENV and ENSO varies at national and regional scales when data are disaggregated by seasons, being stronger in DJF and weaker in SON. Specific regions (Pacific and Andes) control the overall relationship between dengue dynamics and ENSO at national scale, and the departments of Antioquia and Valle del Cauca determine those of the Andes and Pacific regions, respectively. Cross wavelet analysis indicates that the ENSO-DENV relation in Colombia exhibits a strong coherence in the 12 to 16-months frequency band, which implies the frequency locking between the annual cycle and the interannual (ENSO) timescales. Results of nonlinear causality metrics reveal the complex concomitant effects of ENSO and local climate variables, while offering new insights to develop early warning systems for DENV in Colombia.

scholarly journals Intermittent but Rapid Changes to Coastal Landscapes: The Tsunami and El Niño Wave-Formed Sea Arch at Laie Point, Oahu, Hawaii, U.S.A.

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
Benjamin R. Jordan
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Sand Dunes ◽  
Tsunami Source ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
Storm Waves ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Coastal Landscapes ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
First Time

Kukuiho’olua Island is an islet that lies 164 m due north of Laie Point, a peninsula of cemented, coastal, Pleistocene and Holocene sand dunes. Kukuiho’olua Island consists of the same dune deposits as Laie Point and is cut by a sea arch, which, documented here for first time, may have formed during the 1 April 1946 “April Fools’s Day Tsunami.” The tsunami-source of formation is supported by previous modeling by other authors, which indicated that the geometry of overhanging sea cliffs can greatly strengthen and focus the force of tsunami waves. Additional changes occurred to the island and arch during the 2015–2016 El Niño event, which was one of the strongest on record. During the event, anomalous wave heights and reversed wind directions occurred across the Pacific. On the night of 24–25 February 2016, large storm waves, resulting from the unique El Niño conditions washed out a large boulder that had lain within the arch since its initial formation, significantly increasing the open area beneath the arch. Large waves also rose high enough for seawater to flow over the peninsula at Laie Point, causing significant erosion of its upper surface. These changes at Laie Point and Kukuio’olua Island serve as examples of long-term, intermittent change to a coastline—changes that, although infrequent, can occur quickly and dramatically, potentially making them geologic hazards.

scholarly journals ENSO’s Modulation of Water Vapor Transport over the Pacific–North American Region

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (9) ◽  
pp. 3846-3856 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hye-Mi Kim ◽  
Michael A. Alexander
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Southwestern United States ◽  
The Pacific

Abstract The vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over the Pacific–North American sector during three phases of ENSO in boreal winter (December–February) is investigated using IVT values calculated from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) during 1979–2010. The shift of the location and sign of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean leads to different atmospheric responses and thereby changes the seasonal mean moisture transport into North America. During eastern Pacific El Niño (EPEN) events, large positive IVT anomalies extend northeastward from the subtropical Pacific into the northwestern United States following the anomalous cyclonic flow around a deeper Aleutian low, while a southward shift of the cyclonic circulation during central Pacific El Niño (CPEN) events induces the transport of moisture into the southwestern United States. In addition, moisture from the eastern tropical Pacific is transported from the deep tropical eastern Pacific into Mexico and the southwestern United States during CPEN. During La Niña (NINA), the seasonal mean IVT anomaly is opposite to that of two El Niño phases. Analyses of 6-hourly IVT anomalies indicate that there is strong moisture transport from the North Pacific into the northwestern and southwestern United States during EPEN and CPEN, respectively. The IVT is maximized on the southeastern side of a low located over the eastern North Pacific, where the low is weaker but located farther south and closer to shore during CPEN than during EPEN. Moisture enters the southwestern United States from the eastern tropical Pacific during NINA via anticyclonic circulation associated with a ridge over the southern United States.

scholarly journals Role of the Indo-Pacific Interbasin Coupling in Predicting Asymmetric ENSO Transition and Duration

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 3321-3335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masamichi Ohba ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Enso Asymmetry ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Warm and cold phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibit a significant asymmetry in their transition/duration such that El Niño tends to shift rapidly to La Niña after the mature phase, whereas La Niña tends to persist for up to 2 yr. The possible role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Indian Ocean (IO) in this ENSO asymmetry is investigated using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Decoupled-IO experiments are conducted to assess asymmetric IO feedbacks to the ongoing ENSO evolution in the Pacific. Identical-twin forecast experiments show that a coupling of the IO extends the skillful prediction of the ENSO warm phase by about one year, which was about 8 months in the absence of the IO coupling, in which a significant drop of the prediction skill around the boreal spring (known as the spring prediction barrier) is found. The effect of IO coupling on the predictability of the Pacific SST is significantly weaker in the decay phase of La Niña. Warm IO SST anomalies associated with El Niño enhance surface easterlies over the equatorial western Pacific and hence facilitate the El Niño decay. However, this mechanism cannot be applied to cold IO SST anomalies during La Niña. The result of these CGCM experiments estimates that approximately one-half of the ENSO asymmetry arises from the phase-dependent nature of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling.

scholarly journals El Niño-like pattern in the Pacific during marine isotope stages (MIS) 13 and 11?

2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahyar Mohtadi ◽  
Dierk Hebbeln ◽  
Samuel Nuñez Ricardo ◽  
Carina B. Lange
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The Pacific

scholarly journals Determination of a New Coastal ENSO Oceanic Index for Northern Peru

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 71
Author(s):  
Edgard Gonzales ◽  
Eusebio Ingol
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Polynomial Equation ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Emergency Operations Center ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Northern Portion ◽  
Sequential Generation

In 2017, extreme rainfall events occurred in the northern portion of Peru, causing nearly 100,000 victims, according to the National Emergency Operations Center (COEN). This climatic event was attributed to the occurrence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Therefore, the main objective of this study was to determine and differentiate between the occurrence of canonical ENSO, with a new type of ENSO called “El Niño Costero” (Coastal El Niño). The polynomial equation method was used to analyze the data from the different types of existing ocean indices to determine the occurrence of ENSO. It was observed that the anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) 2.5 °C (January 2016) generated the “Modoki El Niño” and that the anomaly of SST −0.3 °C (January 2017) generated the “Modoki La Niña”; this sequential generation generated El Niño Costero. This new knowledge about the sui generis origin of El Niño Costero, based on the observations of this analysis, will allow us to identify and obtain important information regarding the occurrence of this event. A new oceanic index called the Pacific Regional Equatorial Index (PREI) was proposed to follow the periodic evolution and forecast with greater precision a new catastrophic event related to the occurrence of El Niño Costero and to implement prevention programs.

Annual, Interannual, and Intraseasonal Variability of Tropical Tropopause Transition Layer Cirrus

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (10) ◽  
pp. 3097-3112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrina S. Virts ◽  
John M. Wallace
Keyword(s):  
Annual Cycle ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Transition Layer ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Cirrus Clouds ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
The Pacific

Abstract Cloud fields based on the first three years of data from the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission are used to investigate the relationship between cirrus within the tropical tropopause transition layer (TTL) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), the annual cycle, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The TTL cirrus signature observed in association with the MJO resembles convectively induced, mixed Kelvin–Rossby wave solutions above the Pacific warm pool region. This signature is centered to the east of the peak convection and propagates eastward more rapidly than the convection; it exhibits a pronounced eastward tilt with height, suggestive of downward phase propagation and upward energy dispersion. A cirrus maximum is observed over equatorial Africa and South America when the enhanced MJO-related convection enters the western Pacific. Tropical-mean TTL cirrus is modulated by the MJO, with more than twice as much TTL cirrus fractional coverage equatorward of 10° latitude when the enhanced convection enters the Pacific than a few weeks earlier, when the convection is over the Indian Ocean. The annual cycle in cirrus clouds around the base of the TTL is equatorially asymmetric, with more cirrus observed in the summer hemisphere. Higher in the TTL, the annual cycle in cirrus clouds is more equatorially symmetric, with a maximum in the boreal winter throughout most of the tropics. The ENSO signature in TTL cirrus is marked by a zonal shift of the peak cloudiness toward the central Pacific during El Niño and toward the Maritime Continent during La Niña.

El Nino Chaos: Overlapping of Resonances Between the Seasonal Cycle and the Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Oscillator

Science ◽  
1994 ◽  
Vol 264 (5155) ◽  
pp. 72-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Tziperman ◽  
L. Stone ◽  
M. A. Cane ◽  
H. Jarosh
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
The Pacific Ocean
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