scholarly journals HOW IS THE IMPACT ON PUBLIC HEALTH OF SECOND WAVE OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC COMPARED TO THE FIRST WAVE? CASE STUDY OF ITALY

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Coccia
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Organizational Capacity ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Effective Policy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractThe main goal of this study is to compare the effects on public health of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to first wave in society. The paper here focuses on a case study of Italy, one of the first European countries to experience a rapid increase in confirmed cases and deaths. Methodology considers daily data from February to November 2020 of the ratio of confirmed cases/total swabs, fatality rate (deaths / confirmed cases) and ratio of individuals in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) / Confirmed cases. Results reveal that the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy had a strong but declining impact on public health with the approaching of summer season and with the effects of containment measures, whereas second wave of the COVID-19 has a growing trend of confirmed cases with admission to ICUs and total deaths having a, to date, lower impact on public health compared to first wave. Although effects of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on public health, policymakers have had an unrealistic optimist behavior that a new wave of COVID-19 could not hit their countries and, especially, a low organizational capacity to plan effective policy responses to cope with recurring COVID-19 pandemic crisis. This study can support vital information to design effective policy responses of crisis management to constrain current and future waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and similar epidemics in society.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF LOCKDOWN ON PUBLIC HEALTH DURING THE FIRST WAVE OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC: LESSONS LEARNED FOR DESIGNING EFFECTIVE CONTAINMENT MEASURES TO COPE WITH SECOND WAVE

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Coccia
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractWhat is hardly known in the studies of the COVID-19 global pandemic crisis is the impact of general lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic both public health and economic system. The main goal of this study is a comparative analysis of some European countries with a longer and shorter period of national lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19 from March to August 2020. Findings suggests that: a) countries with shorter period of lockdown have a variation of confirmed cases/population (%) higher than countries with longer period of lockdown; b) countries with shorter period of lockdown have average fatality rate (5.45%) lower than countries with longer period of lockdown (12.70%), whereas variation of fatality rate from August to March 2020 suggests a higher reduction in countries with longer period of lockdown (−1.9% vs 0.72%). However, Independent Samples Test and the Mann-Whitney test reveal that the effectiveness of longer period of lockdown versus shorter one on public health is not significant. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic associated with longer period of lockdown has a higher negative impact on economic growth with consequential social issues in countries. Results of the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on public health and economies of some leading countries in Europe, during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, can provide vital information to design effective containment strategies in future waves of this pandemic to minimize the negative effects in society.

scholarly journals United by the global COVID-19 pandemic: divided by our values and viral identities

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mimi E. Lam
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Civil Liberty ◽  
Viral Transmission ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Situational Contexts ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Group Identities ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe rapidly evolving landscape of the global COVID-19 pandemic necessitates urgent scientific advances and adaptive behavioural and policy responses to contain viral transmission, reduce impacts on public health, and minimise societal disruption. Epidemiological models of SARS-CoV-2 transmission are heavily influencing policy responses, forecasting viral infection, transmission, and death rates under simplified representations of human behaviour. They either assume that all members of a population or demographic group behave identically or design individual behavioural rules based on demographic and mobility data. In pluralistic societies, however, individual behavioural responses vary with personal values, situational contexts, and social group identities, affecting policy compliance and viral transmission. Here, I identify and explore the impacts of salient viral identities or “COVID-19 personality types” that are emerging and fluidly coalescing with each other and existing social and political identities. The resultant heightened inter-group differentiation explains the politicisation of the pandemic and rampant racism, discrimination, and conflict observed now and with epidemics historically. Recognising salient COVID-19 behavioural identities can improve scientific forecasting of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of containment measures, as well as tailor nuanced policy interventions and communications to enhance individual coping and compliance. As governments contemplate easing social-distancing restrictions, the science-society-policy nexus needs fortification through public participation, structured deliberation, and evidence-informed decision-making of policy options to negotiate the complex value trade-offs among public health, the market economy, and civil liberty. By thus valuing human diversity to foster societal resilience, an ethical agenda can be set with a united response to the COVID-19 pandemic and global commons challenges whose impacts are less immediate, but no less dire for humanity.

scholarly journals Integrating quasi-experimental and inductive designs in evaluation: A case study of the impact of free bus travel on public health

Evaluation ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 391-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judith Green ◽  
Helen Roberts ◽  
Mark Petticrew ◽  
Rebecca Steinbach ◽  
Anna Goodman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals A Control Based Mathematical Model for the Evaluation of Intervention Lines in COVID-19 Epidemic Spread: The Italian Case Study

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 890
Author(s):  
Paolo Di Giamberardino ◽  
Rita Caldarella ◽  
Daniela Iacoviello
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Italian Case ◽  
Control Actions ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Asymptomatic Subjects ◽  
The Impact

This paper addresses the problem of describing the spread of COVID-19 by a mathematical model introducing all the possible control actions as prevention (informative campaign, use of masks, social distancing, vaccination) and medication. The model adopted is similar to SEIQR, with the infected patients split into groups of asymptomatic subjects and isolated ones. This distinction is particularly important in the current pandemic, due to the fundamental the role of asymptomatic subjects in the virus diffusion. The influence of the control actions is considered in analysing the model, from the calculus of the equilibrium points to the determination of the reproduction number. This choice is motivated by the fact that the available organised data have been collected since from the end of February 2020, and almost simultaneously containment measures, increasing in typology and effectiveness, have been applied. The characteristics of COVID-19, not fully understood yet, suggest an asymmetric diffusion among countries and among categories of subjects. Referring to the Italian situation, the containment measures, as applied by the population, have been identified, showing their relation with the government's decisions; this allows the study of possible scenarios, comparing the impact of different possible choices.

Uncharted waters: LNG as a marine fuel in Australasia

2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 434
Author(s):  
Rob Duncanson ◽  
Walter P. Purio
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Maritime Industry ◽  
Marine Fuel ◽  
Global Context ◽  
Energy Independence ◽  
Lng Fuel ◽  
The Impact

This paper explores the emerging market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a marine fuel, with a particular focus on the market in Australasia. While LNG as a marine fuel is a growing market in the northern hemisphere, slower rates of adoption of LNG fuel technologies in maritime industry are evident in the southern hemisphere. This paper aims to ground the Australasian LNG marine fuel market in a global context and to explore opportunities for Australia to lead the region in developing and adopting LNG as a marine fuel. This paper looks at the key drivers behind championing LNG as a marine fuel, focusing on four main areas of impact; economy, environment, public health and innovation. This paper uses Australia as a case study for the adoption of LNG as a marine fuel in the southern hemisphere. It considers the opportunities presented by LNG as a marine fuel to assist Australia in: achieving energy independence; reducing the impact of air pollution from ships on the environment and public health; and positioning Australia as an innovative leader in LNG as a marine fuel.

The Impact of a National Earthquake Campaign on Public Preparedness: 2011 Campaign in Israel as a Case Study

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 138-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilead Shenhar ◽  
Irina Radomislensky ◽  
Michael Rozenfeld ◽  
Kobi Peleg
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Representative Sample ◽  
Strong Earthquake ◽  
Public Health Preparedness ◽  
Israeli Population ◽  
Israeli Government ◽  
The Impact

AbstractObjectiveThe most effective way to reduce the number of expected victims and amount of damage from earthquakes is by effective preparedness. The Israeli government launched a national campaign to change its citizens’ behavior. This study assessed the effectiveness of the campaign on the Israeli population.MethodsThe survey was conducted 2 weeks after the campaign ended. It was based on a randomly selected representative sample of the adult Israeli population.ResultsOf the 42% of the Israeli public exposed to the campaign, 37% estimated that a strong earthquake might occur in Israel during the coming years. Only 23% of those who were exposed to the campaign (9% of the Israeli public) said that the campaign improved their awareness; 76% reported that after their exposure to the campaign they did nothing to prepare. However, exposure to the campaign significantly increased the knowledge of dealing with earthquakes (30% vs 21% among those not exposed).ConclusionsAlthough the campaign increased knowledge and awareness, it did not achieve the goal of improving public preparedness. The campaign was not effective by itself, and it should be part of a multiyear activity. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2015;9:138-144)

scholarly journals The Impact of Public Health Interventions on The First and Second Waves of COVID-19 in Trinidad And Tobago – A Simple Epidemic Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Loren De Freitas ◽  
Han-I Wang
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Trinidad And Tobago ◽  
Specific Treatment ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Support Methods ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Combined Interventions

Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in more than 35 million confirmed cases worldwide. Currently, there is no specific treatment for the disease or available vaccine to reduce the spread of COVID-19. As such, countries rely on a range of public health interventions to assist in halting the spread of transmission. Caribbean countries have also adopted many public health interventions. In this paper, we use mathematical modelling to demonstrate the impact of public health interventions on the progression of COVID-19 in order to provide timely decision support. Methods A cohort Markov model, based on the concept of the SEIR model, was built to reflect the characteristics of the COVID-19 virus. Five possible public health interventions in the first wave and a projection of current second wave were simulated using the constructed model. Results The model results indicate that the strictest combined interventions of complete border closure and lockdown were the most effective with the number of deaths less than ten in the first wave. For the current second wave, it will take around 30 days for the pandemic to pass its peak after implementing the wearing of face masks policy. Conclusions This paper shows the impact of common public health interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic, using Trinidad and Tobago as an example. Such impacts may be useful in reducing delays in decision-making and improving compliance by populations. However, given the limitations associated with mathematical models, decision-making should be guided by economic assessments, infectious disease and public health expertise.

scholarly journals A data-driven model of the COVID-19 spread among interconnected populations: epidemiological and mobility aspects following the lockdown in Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Di Giamberardino ◽  
Daniela Iacoviello ◽  
Federico Papa ◽  
Carmela Sinisgalli
Keyword(s):  
Group Structure ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Group Model ◽  
Disease Evolution ◽  
Analytical Stability ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Disease Diffusion ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractAn epidemic multi-group model formed by interconnected SEIR-like structures is formulated and used for data fitting to gain insight into the COVID-19 dynamics and into the role of non-pharmaceutical control actions implemented to limit the infection spread since its outbreak in Italy. The single submodels provide a rather accurate description of the COVID-19 evolution in each subpopulation by an extended SEIR model including the class of asymptomatic infectives, which is recognized as a determinant for disease diffusion. The multi-group structure is specifically designed to investigate the effects of the inter-regional mobility restored at the end of the first strong lockdown in Italy (June 3, 2020). In its time-invariant version, the model is shown to enjoy some analytical stability properties which provide significant insights on the efficacy of the implemented control measurements. In order to highlight the impact of human mobility on the disease evolution in Italy between the first and second wave onset, the model is applied to fit real epidemiological data of three geographical macro-areas in the period March–October 2020, including the mass departure for summer holidays. The simulation results are in good agreement with the data, so that the model can represent a useful tool for predicting the effects of the combination of containment measures in triggering future pandemic scenarios. Particularly, the simulation shows that, although the unrestricted mobility alone appears to be insufficient to trigger the second wave, the human transfers were crucial to make uniform the spatial distribution of the infection throughout the country and, combined with the restart of the production, trade, and education activities, determined a time advance of the contagion increase since September 2020.

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