Dynamic larval dispersal can mediate the response of marine metapopulations to multiple climate change impacts

AbstractClimate change is having multiple impacts on marine species characterized by sedentary adult and pelagic larval phases, from increasing adult mortality to changes in larval duration and ocean currents. Recent studies have shown impacts of climate change on species persistence through direct effects on individual survival and development, but few have considered the indirect effects mediated by ocean currents and species traits such as pelagic larval duration. We used a density-dependent and stochastic metapopulation model to predict how changes in adult mortality and dynamic connectivity can affect marine metapopulation stability. We analyzed our model with connectivity data simulated from a biophysical ocean model of the northeast Pacific coast forced under current (1998-2007) and future (2068-2077) climate scenarios in combination with scenarios of increasing adult mortality and decreasing larval duration. Our results predict that changes of ocean currents and larval duration mediated by climate change interact in complex and opposing directions to shape local mortality and metapopulation connectivity with synergistic effects on regional metapopulation stability: while species with short larval duration are most sensitive to temperature-driven reduction in larval duration, the response of species with longer larval duration are mostly mediated by changes in both the mean and variance of larval connectivity driven by ocean currents. Our results emphasize the importance of considering the spatiotemporal structure of connectivity in order to predict how the multiple effects of climate change will impact marine populations.

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Skewed temperature dependence affects range and abundance in a warming world

10.1101/408104 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Amy Hurford ◽

Christina A. Cobbold ◽

Péter K. Molnár

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Population Growth ◽

Climate Warming ◽

Synergistic Effects ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Integrodifference Equation ◽

Positive Effects ◽

Growth Metrics ◽

Fitness Curve ◽

Warming World

AbstractPopulation growth metrics such asR0are usually asymmetric functions of temperature, with cold-skewed curves arising when the positive effects of a temperature increase outweigh the negative effects, and warm-skewed curves arising in the opposite case. Classically, cold-skewed curves are interpreted as more beneficial to a species under climate warming, because cold-skewness implies increased population growth over a larger proportion of the species’ fundamental thermal niche than warm-skewness. However, inference based on the shape of the fitness curve alone, and without considering the synergistic effects of net reproduction, density, and dispersal may yield an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts. We formulate a moving-habitat integrodifference equation model to evaluate how fitness curve skewness affects species’ range size and abundance during climate warming. In contrast to classic interpretations, we find that climate warming adversely affects populations with cold-skewed fitness curves, positively affects populations with warm-skewed curves and has relatively little or mixed effects on populations with symmetric curves. Our results highlight the synergistic effects of fitness curve skewness, spatially heterogeneous densities, and dispersal in climate change impact analyses, and that the common approach of mapping changes only inR0may be misleading.

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Skewed temperature dependence affects range and abundance in a warming world

Proceedings of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rspb.2019.1157 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 286 (1908) ◽

pp. 20191157 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Amy Hurford ◽

Christina A. Cobbold ◽

Péter K. Molnár

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Population Growth ◽

Climate Warming ◽

Synergistic Effects ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Integrodifference Equation ◽

Positive Effects ◽

Growth Metrics ◽

Fitness Curve ◽

Warming World

Population growth metrics such as R 0 are usually asymmetric functions of temperature, with cold-skewed curves arising when the positive effects of a temperature increase outweigh the negative effects, and warm-skewed curves arising in the opposite case. Classically, cold-skewed curves are interpreted as more beneficial to a species under climate warming, because cold-skewness implies increased population growth over a larger proportion of the species's fundamental thermal niche than warm-skewness. However, inference based on the shape of the fitness curve alone, and without considering the synergistic effects of net reproduction, density and dispersal, may yield an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts. We formulate a moving-habitat integrodifference equation model to evaluate how fitness curve skewness affects species’ range size and abundance during climate warming. In contrast to classic interpretations, we find that climate warming adversely affects populations with cold-skewed fitness curves, positively affects populations with warm-skewed curves and has relatively little or mixed effects on populations with symmetric curves. Our results highlight the synergistic effects of fitness curve skewness, spatially heterogeneous densities and dispersal in climate change impact analyses, and that the common approach of mapping changes only in R 0 may be misleading.

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Modeling climate change impacts on phenology and population dynamics of migratory marine species

Ecological Modelling ◽

10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.03.009 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 264 ◽

pp. 83-97 ◽

Cited By ~ 52

Author(s):

James J. Anderson ◽

Eliezer Gurarie ◽

Chloe Bracis ◽

Brian J. Burke ◽

Kristin L. Laidre

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Population Dynamics ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Marine Species

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Climate-related factors cause changes in the diversity of fish and invertebrates in subtropical coast of the Gulf of Mexico

Communications Biology ◽

10.1038/s42003-019-0650-9 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Masami Fujiwara ◽

Fernando Martinez-Andrade ◽

R. J. David Wells ◽

Mark Fisher ◽

Michaela Pawluk ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Diversity ◽

Gulf Of Mexico ◽

Chemical Properties ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Marine Species ◽

Tropical Species ◽

Related Factors ◽

Rarefaction Analysis ◽

Occupancy Probability

Abstract Climate change impacts physical and chemical properties of the oceans, and these changes affect the ecology of marine organisms. One important ecological consequence of climate change is the distribution shift of marine species toward higher latitudes. Here, the prevalence of nearly 150 species of fish and invertebrates were investigated to find changes in their distributions over 35 years along a subtropical coast within the Gulf of Mexico. Our results show that 90 species increased their occupancy probability, while 33 decreased (remaining species neither increase or decrease), and the ranges of many species expanded. Using rarefaction analysis, which allows for the estimation of species diversity, we show that species diversity has increased across the coast of Texas. Climate-mediated environmental variables are related to the changes in the occupancy probability, suggesting the expansion of tropical species into the region is increasing diversity.

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